MLB Best Bets for April 14: California Teams Look Great Tonight
-
Rainman M.
- April 14, 2025
Top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for tonight’s action.
Four games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Royals vs. Yankees, Astros vs. Cardinals, Cubs vs. Padres, and Rockies vs. Dodgers.
For your best bets, I will recommend first five plays on the Royals and Cardinals and a Padres-Dodgers full-game money-line parlay.
And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice. Today, our expert has advice on the Giants vs. Phillies and Cubs vs. Padres games.
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees
Monday, April 14, 2025 – 07:05 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium
Kansas City’s Starter
Seth Lugo starts for the Royals today.
Lugo shows strong form, having most recently held the Orioles to one earned run in six innings before limiting Minnesota to one earned run in 5.2 innings.
Yankee Stadium is a great place for Lugo to extend his strong form in because he loves pitching there.
Most recently, in last September, he pitched seven shutout innings in that venue. His career ERA in Yankee Stadium is 2.70.
Lugo vs. Yankees Batters
Lugo’s outlook is great tonight also because he has a strong record against Yankee batters.
Collectively, they slug .338 against him.
Aaron Judge, for example, is obviously a crucial part of New York’s lineup, but he is 0-for-11 in his career with Lugo on the mound.
New York’s Starter
New York is the favored team because it’s the Yankees, but the Yankees won’t look like the Yankees with Carlos Carrasco starting for them.
Carrasco has failed to hold any of his first three opponents to fewer than three runs despite lasting no more than 5.1 innings in any one start.
With his 7.71 ERA, he is having the worst season in his career.
Carrasco vs. Royals Batters
Despite having faced a better version of Carrasco than the one they’ll see tonight, Royals batters already have a strong track record against him.
Their collective slugging rate with him on the mound is .455. Four different Royals batters slug at least .500 against him.
With the pitching advantage blatantly belonging to the Royals, they are a great play at plus-money odds.
MLB Pick: First Five Royals ML (+110) at BetOnline
Houston Astros vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Monday, April 14, 2025 – 07:45 PM EDT at Busch Stadium
Houston’s Starter
Houston starts Framber Valdez tonight. Valdez’s ERA looks attractive, which makes him seem trustworthy.
However, he has benefited from a low BABIP (batting average of balls in play) and an unsustainably high strand rate.
His 3.60 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) reflects that he has not truly been performing that well.
Valdez vs. Cardinals Batters
Valdez is a lefty who throws, primarily, a sinker, curveball, and changeup.
His outlook is negative tonight because the Cardinals match up well against him.
They rank seventh with a .466 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from lefties.
It’s A Sonny Day in St. Louis
Sonny Gray starts for the Cardinals tonight.
Gray’s 4.50 ERA looks ugly, but it is the product of one bad start — it does not reflect his form or how his entire season has gone.
Most recently, he held the Pirates to one run in five innings.
Gray vs. Astros Batters
Gray will prolong his strong form against a Houston lineup with a poor track record against him.
The Astros collectively have a .309 slugging rate against him. In 81 at-bats, they have mustered all of five doubles against him and zero triples or home runs.
Whereas the Cardinals will thrive against Valdez, the Astros won’t hurt Gray.
MLB Pick: First Five Cardinals ML (+100) at BetOnline
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego PadresÂ
Monday, April 14, 2025 – 09:40 PM EDT at Petco Park
Outlook for Chicago’s Starter
Jameson Taillon starts for the Cubs tonight.
Taillon primarily throws a four-seamer, a cutter, a curveball, and a sweeper.
His outlook is negative against a San Diego lineup that ranks fifth with a .484 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Look out especially for Elias Diaz, Jose Iglesias, and Martin Maldonado. They all slug over .660 against Taillon.
San Diego’s Superior Starter
The Padres have a massive starting pitcher advantage with Dylan Cease on the mound.
Cease’s ERA makes him look terrible. His ERA is the product of his most recent start, where he allowed a ton of runs to the Athletics.
He was, however, in that start a victim of an unfortunately high BABIP that belies how well he induced soft contact. His 3.24 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) shows how well he performed.
Given that his FIP was 1.25 and 3.24 in his last two respective starts, it is evident that he truly enters tonight’s game in strong form.
Cease vs. Cubs BattersÂ
Chicago’s batters own a collective .245 slugging rate against Cease.
For example, Ian Happ, Nico Hoerner, and Seiya Suzuki are combined 1-for-27 with Cease on the mound.
Chicago won’t have the firepower to hurt Cease.
BullpensÂ
But the Cubs also won’t hurt San Diego’s bullpen.
The Padres own MLB’s top bullpen, ranking 21 spots ahead of the Cubs, thus making them a strong full-game play.
Parlay Leg 1: Padres ML (-147) at BetOnline
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Monday, April 14, 2025 – 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
Rocky Road for the Rockies
Colorado is the worst road team in baseball.
The Rockies have scored zero runs in their last three road games and a total of three runs in their last six road games.
They even failed to get more than one hit off San Diego starter Kyle Hart, who had allowed seven earned runs in 5.2 innings before facing the Rockies and still has a 5.40 ERA after facing them.
Whereas the Dodgers have a star-studded lineup featuring three former MVP selections, Colorado can’t score a run. The difference in firepower is immense.
This is a great “get right” game for the Dodgers tonight, who are coming off losses against a Cubs team against which the Rockies obviously pale in comparison.
Colorado starter Antonio Senzatela suffers a 5.45 career ERA in Dodger Stadium, so Los Angeles will hit him hard and likewise damage Colorado’s 28th-ranked bullpen.
Parlay Leg 2: Dodgers ML (-330) at BetOnline
The Parlay
- Padres ML (-147)
- Dodgers ML (-330)
MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+119) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
