MLB Best Bets for April 16: Red Sox to Dim Rays in Tampa
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LT Profits
- April 16, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Red Sox ML (+127) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We have another big Major League Baseball card on Wednesday with a full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups, as every team is in action. And, as usual, we are here with the three plays we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds available.
These value bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, and our three selections for Wednesday are comprised of two underdog value sides and one total. The first pitch for our first two games tonight are both at 7:05pm ET.
Want more value picks? Check out our YouTube channel for daily betting tips—today’s breakdown covers Nationals vs. Pirates and Giants vs. Phillies with expert advice you can’t miss.
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Wednesday, April 16, 2025 – 7:05 PM EDT at George M. Steinbrenner Field
We have a matchup of two pitchers, both off to poor starts on paper Wednesday when Zack Littell and the Rays host Sean Newcomb and the Red Sox. However, Littel being more home run prone in the early going and Newcomb being extremely unlucky has us calling for the upset and backing Boston at an underdog price.
Lots of Dingers
Littell became a full-time starter for the first time in his career last season, and while he went only 8-10, he did post a decent 3.63 ERA. His xFIP was a bit higher, though at 4.01, and he allowed a lot of hard air contact with a low groundball rate of 34.0% and a rather weak soft/hard contact ratio of 14.0% / 29.3%.
Fast forward to this season, and Zack has taken that hard air contact to dangerous levels! He is 0-3 with an ugly 6.88 ERA, with the main culprit being a ridiculous soft/hard contact ratio of 9.4% / 37.7%. Add in the Rays playing in a more hitter-friendly ballpark this season, while Tropicana Field is being repaired after hurricane damage, and Littell has already allowed five home runs in 17 innings.
To make matters worse, he is allowing more contact in general with his strikeout rate down to 7.41/9 from 8.12/9 last year, and he must deal with a Red Sox lineup that just blasted three home runs here last night.
Ridiculous BABIP
Now, we are not saying that Newcomb is great by any means. But at least, what you see is usually what you get with him as his career ERA and xFIP are nicely aligned at 4.52 and 4.59, respectively. The ERA is a bit higher so far this year at 4.97, helping account for his 0-2 record, but his xFIP is better at 4.02, leaving room for some anticipated positive regression.
And the news is not all bad for Sean as he has a nice strikeout rate of 10.66/9, and he has yet to allow a home run. He has also incredibly allowed an unbelievable .500 BABIP so far, which again suggests positive regression as that obscene figure goes down. Moreover, Newcomb has an excellent soft/hard contact ratio of 23.1% / 25.8%, so it appears the vast majority of his problems have stemmed from the unrealistic BABIP, which is one of the biggest Luck Stats in baseball.
In a nutshell, we see a lot more potential upside in Newcomb right now than we do in Littell, and the former is at an underdog price. This has us betting on the Red Sox at nice odds on Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Red Sox 5 – Rays 4
MLB Pick: Red Sox ML (+127) at Heritage Sports
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees
Wednesday, April 16, 2025 – 7:05 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium
We see great underdog value in Kris Bubic of the Royals when they head into the Bronx to face the Yankees with Clarke Schmidt making his season debut. We are betting on Kansas City as decided underdogs on Wednesday.
Better Stuff After Tommy John
Bubic was primed to carve out a spot in the Royals’ starting rotation in 2023, but he injured his elbow in his third start that year and underwent Tommy John surgery. He made a rather speedy recovery to pitch out of the bullpen last season, but at the still relatively young age of 27, he has looked better than ever in his return to the rotation this year, which oftentimes happens following that surgery.
Kris has been brilliant while going 2-1 with a spiffy 0.96 ERA and 2.98 xFIP. He has a very good strikeout rate of 10.13/9, and after struggling with command early in his career, he has lowered his walk rate to 2.41/9, which is quite acceptable given the K-Rate. And he has also maintained his groundball rate at 52.1%.
But Stuff+ best displays the impact that Tommy John surgery has had. In his last two years as a starter before the injury, he has an overall Stuff+ of 90 in 2022 and 89 in 2023 (only three starts), with his fastball Stuff+ at 89 and 85 those two years, respectively. This season, the overall Stuff has jumped to 100 with the fastball at 105! Furthermore, he now has a second above-average pitch with the change-up at 101.
All this is to say that Bubic’s vast improvement thus far looks “real”.
Fluky 2024?
Schmidt is making his first start of the season after beginning the year on the injured list with a shoulder issue. Now 29 years old, he is coming off his best Major League season despite going only 5-5 for the Yankees last season in 16 starts, as he posted a surprising 2.85 ERA. The caveat there though is that his xFIP was over a full run higher at 3.92, which lined up closer with his career 3.95 ERA and 4.23 xFIP.
Yes, Clarke had a nice strikeout rate of 9.81/9, but that was accompanied by a weaker walk rate of 3.16/9, and he was lucky in benefiting from a strand rate of 80.0%. And while he threw a relatively heavy 94.3 MPH sinker, his groundball rate of 40.5% was the lowest of his career. So, in essence, he had the same peripherals as a 4.00-ish ERA pitcher he always had.
The bottom line here is we think Bubic is primed for his best Major League season, while we expect negative regression from Schmidt after a fluky ERA last year. Add in a great underdog price and back the Royals to upset.
Predicted Score: Royals 4 – Yankees 3
MLB Pick: Royals ML (+149) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox
Wednesday, April 16, 2025 – 7:40 PM EDT at Rate Field
We do not expect an excess of scoring on Wednesday night when Osvaldo Bido and the Athletics visit Jonathan Cannon and the White Sox. Therefore, we are backing the Under in the Windy City.
Facing Worst Offense Helps
Bido comes in at 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA in three starts, as he has allowed exactly two runs in each outing with one of those six total runs allowed being unearned. Sure, he was lucky to escape relatively unscathed despite allowing nine hits in five innings last time out against the Padres, but he is facing a much less formidable offense tonight.
Osvaldo showed promise in 16 appearances for the A’s last season, posting a winning 5-3 record with a 3.41 ERA while pitching for a team that finished 69-93. That promising potential has continued through the early going this year with that shaky last outing notwithstanding. He has a good strikeout rate of 8.40/9 and has yet to allow a home run, while being unlucky with a BABIP allowed of .391, pointing to further improvement expected down the line.
Moreover, he now faces a White Sox offense ranked 27th out of 30 Major League teams in wRC+ against right-handed pitching at 71 (or 29% below average) and 28th in OPS against them at .581.
Stuff Better Than Early Results
Now, Cannon is off to a shaky start to say the least, as he is 0-2 with an ugly 5.79 ERA through three starts covering 14 innings. However, he has underlying metrics that point to expected improvement as his innings start to accumulate, though those improvements may not translate to a good record given the lousy offense he is pitching for.
He is striking out one batter per inning thus far, with that K-Rate of 9.00/9 a giant leap from his 6.59/9 as a rookie last season. Sure, it has been a very limited sampling, but his Stuff+ paints a rather rosy picture of his development.
Jonathan has a vast arsenal of five pitches that he has thrown over 13% of the time, and that has graded out to a commendable overall Stuff+ of 98. The bigger story though is his 114 Stuff+ for both his fastball and his slider, with that slider helping improve his groundball rate to 47.5% from 38.1% as a rookie.
When we add up the expected improvement for both of these starting pitchers and the White Sox possibly having the worst offense in baseball, we see value in betting on the Under in Chicago in this spot.
Predicted Score: Athletics 3 – White Sox 2
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
