Top MLB Pick: Over 9 (-103) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
As you may recall, we had the Over in our baseball picks the last time we dealt with the Yankees at the top-rated sportsbooks. Their torpedo bats got the job done for us, beating the Arizona Diamondbacks 7-5 (over 8 at the close) back on April 1 in the Bronx. Let’s see if they can do it again in Tampa, where the Over is off to a 7-6-1 start this year.
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Thursday, April 17, 2025 – 07:05 PM EDT at George M. Steinbrenner Field
Is George M. Steinbrenner Field a Hitters Park?
It should be. At just 314 feet to right field, the former Legends Field is eight feet shorter than Tropicana Field; we’ve already seen Tampa’s left-handed bats take advantage, none more than 1B Jonathan Aranda (255 wRC+), who leads the majors at press time with a 1.242 OPS.
Aranda’s hot streak might be unsustainable, but if we look at the entire Rays team, they rank fourth overall at home with 141 wRC+, not far behind the No. 2 Yankees at 156 wRC+. And their Over record may have been significantly more profitable by now had Tampa not opened the 2025 campaign against the Colorado Rockies (43 road wRC+, No. 30) and Pittsburgh Pirates (54 road wRC+, No. 28), who combined to drive the Under to a 5-1 record.
Who’s Pitching Thursday?
According to the official MLB website, it will be sophomore Will Warren (3.71 xFIP in 14.0 innings) taking the mound for New York opposite fellow right-hander Taj Bradley (3.14 xFIP in 17.0 innings), now in his third year of service.
Warren is the more vulnerable of the two. He’s the same pitcher who was in our April 1 game against Arizona; the Snakes only managed two runs off Warren in five innings, but they took advantage of New York’s bullpen to make up the difference and cash in the Over. This will be the first time anyone in Tampa’s batting order has faced Warren in the big leagues.
Like Warren, Bradley is the nominal No. 4 starter for the Rays, but he’s much more established after two nearly-full seasons with the parent club – both of them impressive. We’re still dealing with a small sample size here, but the current Yankees have only combined for a .385 OPS off Bradley, going 2-for-19 with three walks and zero home runs. Not ideal for our purposes.
The Pick
Thursday’s weather report, on the other hand, is about as good as it gets: clear skies and temperatures in the low 80s, albeit with light crosswinds.
The total remains a mystery at this point, but if you’re worried about Bradley in particular, Tampa’s bullpen ranks No. 27 on the FanGraphs charts at minus-0.6 WAR, well behind the No. 7 Yankees at plus-0.8 WAR. Size your bets accordingly when the total hits the MLB odds board, and may the sphere be with you.
MLB Pick: Over 9 (-103) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
