MLB Best Bets for April 18: Plethora of Scoring in Philadelphia
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LT Profits
- April 18, 2025
MLB Pick: Marlins-Phillies Over 7.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
After a winning 2-1 night Wednesday that included a +127 winner, we are back for a Major League Baseball card Friday that has a full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups. As usual, we are here with the three plays that we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds available.
These value bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, and all three of our Friday selections happen to be totals. The first pitch for our first best bet tonight is at 6:45pm ET.
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Friday, April 18, 2025 – 6:45 PM EDT at Citizens Bank Park
We have a supposed battle of aces in the City of Brotherly Love on Friday when Sandy Alcantara and the Marlins visit Zack Wheeler and the Phillies. However, this low total is set as if these pitchers were in peak form when that are clearly not. Thus, we are backing the Over in this spot.
Not Same Since Return
Alcantara won the 2022 Cy Young Award, but he sprained the ACL in his elbow in 2023, requiring Tommy John surgery, forcing him to miss the entire 2024 season. And truth be told, he has not looked great in his three comeback starts so far this year despite a 2-0 record, as it has come with a 4.70 ERA. The xFIP is a bit better at 3.94, but that is still not nearly up to his old standards.
Sandy is struggling with his command in the early going with a weak K/BB ratio of 7.04/4.70 per nine innings. His velocity is still there with the fastball averaging 97.4 MPH, but that is still down a bit after being consistently above 98 MPH pre-surgery, and batters are getting better looks at him with his swinging strike rate currently a career low 10.1%. And he also has a hideous soft/hard contact ratio of 7.0% / 30.2%.
The only reason Alcantara has not suffered more damage is because he has benefited from an unsustainably low .214 BABIP allowed. Furthermore, once he exits, the Miami bullpen ranks dead last in the Major Leagues with a 5.15 xFIP, as well as 24th with a 4.50 ERA.
Back-to-Back Shaky Starts
Wheeler comes off a phenomenal season last year when he went 16-7 with a 2.57 ERA and 3.30 xFIP, but he has been erratic so far in 2025 while going 1-1 with a 4.07 ERA. He began the year with two Quality Starts but has been blitzed for nine earned runs over 11.1 innings in his last two outings while allowing 15 hits plus four walks.
Granted, Zack still has a very good swinging strike rate overall of 14.2%, but that rate was only at 11.2% and 11.5% in those last two starts, respectively, so whatever the reason, hitters are seeing the ball better against him. Moreover, he is allowing more air contact than ever this season, with his groundball rate at a career low 36.7%, which has resulted in already allowing four home runs in 24.1 innings.
Also, even the normally reliable Phillies’ bullpen is struggling right now, ranking 26th in the majors with a 4.83 ERA and 21st with a 4.17 xFIP.
So, besides neither starter currently being in ace form, neither can expect good support from their respective bullpens either, with those two units having shaky starts to this season. This has us betting the Over in Philadelphia Friday.
Predicted Score: Phillies 6 – Marlins 4
MLB Pick: Over 7.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Friday, April 18, 2025 – 7:05 PM EDT at George M. Steinbrenner Field
We do not expect too much scoring in Tampa Friday night, so we are betting on the under when Drew Rasmussen and the Rays host Carlos Rodon and the Yankees.
Back to Peak Form?
Rasmussen has a career 2.85 ERA and 3.38 xFIP over 325.5 Major League innings, so while he has been great whenever making it to the mound, he has been plagued by elbow issues throughout his career. He had two Tommy John surgeries earlier in his career, and another procedure to repair UCL damage before last season that resulted in his pitching mostly out of the bullpen after making his belated debut.
Well, he now appears to be the healthiest he has been in years, and he has been brilliant in his first three starts, allowing one earned run over 15 innings for a 0.60 ERA! Of course that will not continue, but his xFIP is also an excellent 2.74, and he has a great K/BB ratio of 9.00/1.20 per nine innings. His fastball grades out at 114 on Stuff+ while his sinker rates higher at 117, helping lead to a good 47.2% groundball rate.
The best part is that Rasmussen should only get better as his innings build up. That aside, should the Rays opt to be cautious, the Tampa Bay bullpen is second in the Major Leagues with a 3.17 xFIP.
He is Not This Bad
Now, Rodon is off to a tough start as his is 0-3 with an ugly 5.48 ERA. This is after having his best season as a Yankee last year going 16-9 with a 3.96 ERA. However, we are optimistic that he can regain that form given that his current xFIP is nearly two full runs lower than the ERA, at a much more attractive 3.50.
Carlos still has an excellent strikeout rate of 10.96/9 which is up nearly a full batter from his 10.03/9 rate last season. He has also added a sinker to his repertoire while increasing the usage of his slider and change-up, all of which have led to a giant leap in his groundball rate to 53.8% from a mere 33.8% last year.
Add in a very good soft/hard contact ratio of 22.6% / 28.3% and we foresee positive regression of his ERA.
So, with Rasmussen pitching like the ace he is capable of being, provided the elbow holds up, and Rodon’s metrics pointing to positive regression, we are backing the Under down in Tampa in this spot.
Predicted Score: Yankees 3 – Rays 2
MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Baltimore Orioles
Friday, April 18, 2025 – 7:05 PM EDT at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
We have never been fans of Andrew Abbott of the Reds, despite his good ERA since coming to the Major Leagues, and we have not been impressed by Cade Povich of the Orioles either. We are backing the Over when these two hurlers meet in Baltimore Friday.
Smoke and Mirrors?
Abbott was first recalled to the majors in 2023, and he has a career record of 19-16 with a 3.75 ERA. That includes being 1-0 with a minuscule 1.80 ERA so far this season. However, he has done all that with his xFIP standing much higher than the ERA each season, with the career mark at 4.75. And it has been more of the same this year with his current 4.21 xFIP belying the ERA.
Andrew has put a lot of traffic on the bases with a career walk rate of 3.50/9 (3.60 this year), and he does not induce many ground balls with a career groundball rate of 31.4%, a rate that is a ridiculously low 16.7% this season. Furthermore, he does not miss many bats with a career swinging strike rate of 9.9% that is at a puny 4.9% this year.
So how has Abbott posted a winning record with a respectable ERA over his first three years? Well, he has been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball during his time in the majors. We do not mean “lucky” in the subjective sense, but rather by scoring very highly in the Luck Stats. And he has taken things to an absurd level early this year with a .091 BABIP allowed and a 100% strand rate!
We simply cannot see that kind of luck continuing, and once the Cincinnati bullpen gets involved, that unit ranks 25th in the league with a 4.42 xFIP.
Strikeout Rate Not There
Fellow southpaw Povich made his Major League debut last season after displaying excellent stuff in the minors while posting double-digit strikeout rates every year. The problem though is that stuff did not translate to the big-league level, as he went 3-9 with a 5.20 ERA and 4.99 ERA despite pitching for a playoff team with a good offense. Probably most disconcerting was his low strikeout rate of just 7.79/9.
Now, while Cade is 0-1 this year, at least he has a 3.60 ERA, 3.46 xFIP and an improved strikeout rate of 8.40/9, albeit over only 15.0 innings. However, his fastball remains an ordinary 92.2 MPH and his overall Stuff+ of 95 does not connect with his high K-Rates in the minors. Further evidence of this is his poor 7.0% swinging strike rate, down from an already below-average rate of 10.0% in his 2024 rookie season.
In the end, we see both offenses having success in Baltimore tonight as we feel neither pitcher is nearly as good as their respective ERA. We are betting on the Over in Camden Yards.
Predicted Score: Orioles 6 – Reds 5
MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (-112) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
