MLB Best Bets for April 22: Bello To Sink Mariners at Home
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LT Profits
- April 22, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Red Sox ML (-125) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We nailed the 3-0 Major League Baseball sweep on Friday, leaving us at 5-1 in our last six plays. We are now back for a full 15-game Tuesday slate of MLB betting matchups. As usual, we have the three plays that we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds available.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three Tuesday selections consisting of two sides and one total. The first pitch for our first play tonight is at 6:10 PM EDT.
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians
Tuesday, April 22, 2025 – 06:10 PM EDT at Progressive Field
We expect a sneakily low-scoring game in Cleveland Tuesday night, so we are thus betting on the Under when Tanner Bibee and the Guardians host Will Warren and the Yankees.
Looking to Rebound
Bibee is supposed to be the ace of the Cleveland staff, although it has not looked like it through four starts thus far this year, as he stands at 1-2 with a 5.85 ERA and 5.36 xFIP. He has been “consistently inconsistent” in alternating great starts and poor starts, as he did not allow a single run over 10.1 innings in his first and third starts combined, while getting hit hard in his second and fourth outings. He was roughed up for six runs in 5.2 innings by the Orioles on Thursday.
Does this mean that Tanner Bibee is in line for a great outing tonight? But in all seriousness, it is way too early to bail on a pitcher that still has a career 3.41 ERA, including this year’s debacle so far. He comes off a season where he posted a 3.47 ERA and 3.72 xFIP with a nice K/BB ratio of 9.69/2.28 per nine innings, so we think he has earned the benefit of the doubt that the “good” Bibee in half his starts so far will be the one we see most often the rest of the way.
That belief is supported by his Stuff+ of 99 not being far off his career rating of 102, with his sinker and slider currently rated a lofty 115 and 112 respectively. Moreover, he has raised his soft-contact rate to 21.7% from 15.3% last year while raising his groundball rate to 45.0% from 34.6%, which bodes well for his long-term prospects.
Bibee also has the support of a Cleveland bullpen that ranks sixth in baseball in xFIP at 3.48 and fourth in strikeout rate at 10.43/9 while also boasting a 3.59 ERA.
Improving Velocity
Now, Will Warren is more of a wild card here as he has a 5.17 ERA and 4.01 xFIP through four starts covering 15.2 innings after receiving a quick hook last time out. He was pulled after just 1.2 innings, allowing one run on four hits plus two walks while throwing 53 pitches. This was coming off his first Major League win in his previous start vs. San Francisco, where he allowed two runs and only two hits with six strikeouts against two walks.
Will actually entered that abbreviated outing on Thursday with a commendable 3.74 xFIP, and the news was not all bad as his average velocity was a season-high 94.4 MPH, a big jump from the 93.1 MPH that velocity sat at in the win over the Giants. His Stuff+ for the outing of 102 was in line to his 103 for the season, and his fastball Stuff+ was at 107, a tick higher than his 106 for the year.
Furthermore, Warren has maintained the high strikeout rates he had in the minors at the Major League Baseball level, with that rate at 11.51/9 last season (albeit only 22.2 innings) and still more than one batter per inning so far this season at 9.19/9. And he also has the support of a nice bullpen with the Yankees sixth in ERA (3.27) and second in strikeout rate (10.64/9) while posting a 3.76 xFIP.
We expect Bibee to return to his ace form the rest of the way while also seeing promise for Warren with his spike in velocity. Add two good bullpens and back the Under in Cleveland.
Predicted Score: Yankees 3 – Guardians 2
MLB Pick: Yankees-Guardians Under 8 (-105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox
Tuesday, April 22, 2025 – 06:45 PM EDT at Fenway Park
Brayan Bello is making his season debut for the Red Sox on Tuesday after starting the season on the injured list, and we are backing him at home hosting Bryce Miller and the Mariners.
Ready After Rehab
Brayan Bello was highly regarded when the Red Sox signed him out of the Dominican Republic, and he made some nice strides in his second full Major League season last year, going 14-8. Yes, he had a lackluster 4.49 ERA, but that was accompanied by a much better 3.87 xFIP as he raised both his strikeout rate (7.57/9 to 8.48/9) and his soft-contact rate (14.4% to 15.2%) from his 2023 rookie year. He also lowered his hard-contact rate by 4%.
Brayan is making his belated 2025 debut following a shoulder injury, but he looked fine in his fourth and final rehab start last Wednesday with his fastball ranging from 94 MPH to 96 MPH while throwing 51 of his 71 pitches for strikes. He also showed great command over his rehab assignments with 21 strikeouts against just four walks over 14 innings. We now think he is primed for his best season yet in his third full year in the majors.
Once Bello departs, we do not feel the Boston bullpen is as bad as its 4.46 ERA as that unit is in the top half of the league (12th) in xFIP at 3.78 with a good strikeout rate of 8.61/9.
Not As Good on Road
Bryce Miller comes in at 1-2 with a 3.43 ERA through four starts covering 21 innings. However, his xFIP is noticeably higher at 4.26 as he is struggling with his command early on, with the walk rate at a bloated 4.29/9. His average velocity thus far is down a few ticks to 94.6 MPH from 95.2 MPH last season, and his low groundball rate of 31.5% is a bit concerning since his sinker is his second most frequently thrown pitch after the fastball.
Byrce comes off a fine 2024 season where he went 12-8 with an excellent 2.94 ERA. But even then, the xFIP was higher at 3.85 and it seems fair to ask how much he was helped by pitching his home games in perhaps the most pitcher-friendly stadium in baseball. Our concern is prompted by him posting an outstanding 1.96 ERA and 3.15 xFIP in Seattle but just a 4.07 ERA and 4.67 xFIP on the road!
And while we think the Boston bullpen is better than its ERA, we do not think the Seattle pen is as good as its 3.30 ERA, as that unit is 18th in xFIP at 4.18 and dead last out of 30 teams in strikeout rate at a scant 6.70/9.
Summing this all up, we are high on Bello as he starts his third full season in the big leagues, while Miller did not have as much success on the road as in his spacious home stadium last season. Add in opposite regressions expected favoring Boston from the bullpens and bet on the Red Sox as home favorites in Fenway Park.
Predicted Score: Red Sox 6 – Mariners 4
MLB Pick: Red Sox ML (-125) at BetOnline
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros
Tuesday, April 22, 2025 – 08:10 PM EDT at Daikin Park
We have always felt that Chris Bassitt of the Blue Jays is underrated, while we think that Ronel Blanco overachieved last season. Therefore, we are supporting Toronto on the road in Houston.
Great Start to 2025
With relatively little fanfare, Chris Bassitt has posted a 3.53 ERA over 1131.2 innings in a Major League career that began in 2014, and even now at age 36, he is off to another great start. He enters at 2-0 with a tiny 0.77 ERA and 2.26 xFIP through four starts covering 23.1 innings. Of course, that ERA is unsustainable, but his peripherals are legitimately strong.
Chris is sporting an excellent K/BB ratio of 11.96/1.93 per nine innings, as well as an outstanding soft/hard contact ratio of 28.1% / 19.3%. That combination alone will win you a lot of games, but Bassitt has also raised his swinging strike rate to a career high of 13.6% through the early going. He has done this with a vast arsenal of six different pitches, with the fastball being his least thrown pitch.
Considering the plethora of swinging strikes and soft contact, Bassitt has put the wisdom he has gained over 11 seasons to good use by keeping batters off-balance. Now, he has a chance to continue that success against a disappointing Houston offense ranked 25th in wRC+ at 87 (or 13% below average).
ERA Was a Mirage
On the surface, it would appear that Ronel Blanco would be in line for a great year after going 13-6 in his first full season as a starter last year with a spiffy 2.80 ERA through 167.1 innings. However, things were not as they seemed, as he was one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball, as demonstrated by his less attractive 4.09 xFIP.
Ronel benefited from an extremely low BABIP allowed last season of .220 and an extremely high strand rate of 83.6%. That enabled him to pitch around a high hard contact rate of 31.7% while putting extra traffic on the bases with a weak walk rate of 3.66/9.
Well, Blanco has not had that same luck this season, and the results have been closer to what should be expected from a pitcher with his metrics. He is 1-2 with a 6.48 ERA, and while his xFIP is much lower, it is still not very strong at 4.71. His command has been even worse than last year, with the walk rate at 5.40/9, and this time he has not been lucky enough to pitch around those command issues.
In a nutshell, Bassitt is showing no signs of slowing down after an underrated career, while Blanco is experiencing the negative regression expected after posting a fluky ERA last season. This has us backing the Blue Jays on the road in this spot.
Predicted Score: Blue Jays 4 – Astros 3
MLB Pick: Blue Jays ML (-102) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
