MLB Best Bets for April 23: Texas to Lasso Athletics in Sacramento
-
LT Profits
- April 23, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Rangers ML (-105) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We are now 7-2 in our last nine Major League Baseball picks after another winning 2-1 night on Tuesday. We return to another full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups for Wednesday, where we again have the three plays that we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds available.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three Wednesday selections consisting of two sides and one total. The first pitch for our first play tonight is at 6:45pm ET.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals
Wednesday, April 23, 2025 – 6:45 PM EDT at Nationals Park
We are calling for an upset in our nation’s capital on Wednesday and are backing Trevor Williams and the homestanding Nationals when they host Tomoyuki Sugano and the struggling Orioles in the Beltway Series.
Disappointing Season
The Orioles have been a major disappointment this season at 9-13 overall, and in their last two games, they were obliterated at home 24-2 by the Reds on Sunday and then managed just one hit while getting shut out 7-0 here in DC last night.
They now turn to their 35-year-old rookie Sugano to try and stop the bleeding. The Japanese import may be 2-1 with a commendable 3.43 ERA over his first four Major League starts, but he has hardly been awe-inspiring, as indicated by his lofty 4.98 xFIP.
The main issue with Tomoyuki is he pitches to a ton of contact with a puny strikeout rate of 3.43 per nine innings. Yes, that is only across 21 innings, but he was not a strikeout guy in Japan either with that K-Rate at 6.38/9 over 156.2 innings last season. He is not a particularly hard thrower with his fastball averaging an ordinary 92.1 MPH and he has a poor soft/hard contact ratio of 13.7% / 37.0%.
The ERA is skewed by an extremely lucky strand rate of 89.3%, which is unsustainable, and he is facing a Washington offense that has been a bit better than expected with a wRC+ of 103 against right-handers. Moreover, Sugano certainly cannot count on much support from an Orioles’ bullpen that is 23rd in the majors in ERA at 4.55 and 22nd in xFIP at 4.34.
One Bad Start
Williams comes in at 1-2 with a 5.95 ERA and 4.08 xFIP through four starts, but those numbers are skewed by one rough outing two starts back where he allowed six runs in 4.2 innings. He has actually pitched well in his other three starts and was an unlucky loser in Pittsburgh last time out when he allowed just one run and three hits with five strikeouts in five innings. He has also been unlucky with a BABIP allowed of .359, negatively impacting the ERA.
While Trevor is not a huge strikeout guy either at 7.32/9, he makes up for that by avoiding a lot of hard contact, with that rate at a pleasantly low 22.4%. A huge part of that is keeping batters off balance, as he has four different pitches that he has thrown at least 13% of the time. And as an added benefit, he has pitched well against Baltimore while allowing just one run in 11 innings against them with 14 strikeouts.
The Orioles are simply reeling right now, and the combination of an extreme contact starter in Saguna and a struggling bullpen does not exactly inspire confidence. We feel that Williams is more than competent enough here to bet on the Nationals at a home underdog price.
Predicted Score: Nationals 6 – Orioles 4
MLB Pick: Nationals ML (+117) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Colorado Rockies vs. Kansas City Royals
Wednesday, April 23, 2025 – 7:40 PM EDT at Kauffman Stadium
We are expecting offensive success from both sides in Kansas City Wednesday night, so we are betting on the Over when German Marquez and the Rockies visit Michael Lorenzen and the Royals.
Early Departure Last Time
Marquez was once the ace of the Colorado staff, but he is now 30 years old, and his career has gone downhill over the last five years. Ever since posting a great (for Colorado) ERA of 3.75 in 2020, that ERA has gone up from the previous season every year, topping out at 6.75 last year accompanied by an ugly 6.56 xFIP.
Well, things have gotten even worse this season as German is 0-3 with a disgusting 8.27 ERA, and while the xFIP is better, it is still rather poor at 4.93. Moreover, that is after tossing six scoreless innings in his first start, as Marquez has surrendered 15 earned runs in 10.1 innings since then. He even failed to get out of the first inning at Dodgers Stadium last time out, allowing seven earned runs on six hits plus one walk while recording only two outs.
The decline of Marquez is even more obvious on Stuff+, where his current overall rating of 88 and his terrible fastball Stuff+ of 72 are both career lows. And an early exit for any Colorado pitcher is always bad news with the Rockies’ bullpen ranked 28th out of 30 Major League teams in xFIP at 4.71.
Career Winding Down?
It is rather difficult to believe that the now 33-year-old Lorenzen was at the peak of his career just two short years ago when making the All-Star team in 2023. However, the turning point of that career was when he tossed a no-hitter in August of that year but was over-extended by throwing a career-high 124 pitches, and he has not been the same pitcher since then.
He is currently 1-3 with a 4.57 ERA and 4.09 xFIP this season with just one Quality start out of four total starts. He was rather lucky to allow only four earned runs in 4.2 innings at Detroit last time out as he allowed seven hits plus three walks with only three strikeouts. The average velocity of his fastball so far is a career-low 93.8 MPH, and in fact, the velocity of every one of his pitches is down from last season.
That has helped lead to an awful soft/hard contact ratio of 9.7% / 33.3%, which becomes more magnified with a modest strikeout rate of 7.06/9 and a single-digit swinging strike rate of 9.4%.
We see this as a matchup of two veteran pitchers with declining skills, and when you add a poor Colorado bullpen to the equation, we see nice value on the Over at this relatively low total.
Predicted Score: Royals 6 – Rockies 5
MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (-116) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Texas Rangers vs. The Athletics
Wednesday, April 23 2025 – 10:05 PM EDT at Sutter Health Park
This is one of our favorite kinds of matchups in Sacramento on Wednesday, where we expect opposite regressions from the starting pitchers based on their ERA/xFIP disparities. This has us backing Kumar Rocker and the Rangers on the road taking on JP Sears and the Athletics.
Extremely Unlucky So Far
Rocker is a highly regarded pitching prospect that was the third overall pick of the 2022 Draft, making a quick ascent to the Major Leagues last season. And he showed promise in those first three starts in the big leagues posting a 3.86 ERA and an identical xFIP with a nice strikeout rate of 10.80/9.
Now in his official rookie season, the frontline numbers do not look great for Kumar as he is 1-2 with a 6.38 ERA through three starts. However, the xFIP paints a much prettier picture at 3.82 and the win did come in his last start, where he allowed three runs on five hits in seven innings without walking a single batter against the Angels.
Moreover, it is very easy to see why there is a disconnect between the ERA and xFIP as Rocker has fared poorly in the Luck Stats. He is yielding a very high .344 BABIP while owning an extremely low strand rate of 55.6%. You can expect his ERA to go down as those anomalies stabilize, which would also allow him to realize his vast potential. And that positive regression may already be in progress based on his last start.
Career xFIP of 4.90
Sears led a bad Athletics team in wins last season while going 11-13, but he did that while posting just a 4.38 ERA and 4.86 xFIP. Moreover, that weak xFIP has become par for the course for JP as it lines up with his career mark of 4.90 through 446 Major League innings with a career best so far of 4.57 during his rookie 2022 season.
He is now 2-2 so far this season with a very good ERA of 3.13, but his underlying peripherals do not support the sudden improvement in ERA. In fact, his xFIP stands at his rather customary 4.64, as he has been the opposite of Rocker in terms of Luck.
That is because Sears has been fortunate with a BABIP allowed of only .250 and an unrealistic strand rate of 83.3%. That luck has helped disguise his high hard contact rate of 31.0%, as well as a weak swinging strike rate of 8.7%.
Adding this all up, the metrics of these starters point to Rocker being much better than his ERA and Sears not being as good as his. Thus, we are betting on the Rangers at a cheap price in this spot.
Predicted Score: Rangers 5 – Athletics 3
MLB Pick: Rangers ML (-105) at Heritage SportsÂ
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
