MLB Best Bets for April 24: Dogs Are Barking All Day Today
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Rainman M.
- April 24, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Athletics First-Half +0.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for tonight’s action. Four games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: White Sox vs. Twins, Rockies vs. Royals, Pirates vs. Angels, and Rangers vs. Athletics.
For your best bets, I will recommend the following first-half plays: White Sox run-line, Pirates money-line, and Athletics run-line. I will also recommend the full-game Rockies-Royals “under.”
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins
Thursday, April 24, 2025 – 01:10 PM EDT at Target Field
Chicago’s Starter
The White Sox are wrong to be dogged so heavily with Shane Smith as their starter.
In four starts, Smith has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of them. Boston scored three earned runs, in the exception, with a single swing of the bat when Smith gave up a home run.
Smith’s success has given his team a level of competitiveness that one would not expect given the odds. With him starting, Chicago has led or has been tied through five innings three out of four times.
The White Sox are dogged so heavily in this game because, overall, they are perceived to be a terrible team, but the odds do not reflect Smith’s importance.
Smith’s Matchup
Matchup-wise, Minnesota will be easier for Smith than Boston was.
Smith primarily throws a fastball, changeup and slider. Minnesota ranks 23rd with a .349 slugging rate against these pitches from righties.
Promising Batters
Chicago’s lineup has a promising outlook against Chris Paddack, Minnesota’s starter today. Four different White Sox batters slug at least .500 in at least four at-bats with Paddack on the mound.
While the data sample is small, it’s promising. It further suggests that the White Sox are wrong to be dogged so heavily in this matchup.
Takeaway
Smith hasn’t typically needed much run support even when he faced tougher matchups than the soft test that he’ll encounter today. The price is great for a very good-looking pitcher who will get more than enough support from his lineup, which features several promising hitters, to lead through five innings.
Because it’s the White Sox, we get plus-money odds for the run-line, which means that Smith’s team can be tied through five innings and we will still win our wager.
MLB Pick: First-Half White Sox +0.5 (+125) at BetOnline
Colorado Rockies vs. Kansas City Royals
Thursday, April 24, 2025 – 02:10 PM EDT at Kauffman Stadium
An “Under” Series
Look to play the “under” when these teams meet in Kansas City.
Colorado’s lineup is atrocious everywhere, but it is especially bad outside of Coors Field. The Rockies are, hitting-wise, the worst road team in baseball. They average two runs per road game.
Kansas City’s lineup is possibly the worst lineup overall. The Royals are the only team to average fewer than three runs per game. When these teams met, they combined for seven runs in eleven innings.
Statistically speaking, it is especially unlikely that they’ll go to extra innings a second straight time.
Pitching Matchup
Germán Márquez starts for the Rockies today in this game, which is Game 1 of the doubleheader. Márquez’s ERA is terrible, yes, but that is because he just faced the mighty Dodgers.
Two starts ago, however, he yielded a 2.38 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) against a solid Padres lineup. His outlook is excellent against Kansas City’s terrible lineup that ranks dead-last with a .293 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
Cole Ragans has a similar outlook against a Colorado team that, outside of its high-altitude venue where run totals get inflated, slugs a pitiful .286 against his favorite pitches from lefties.
With both bullpens fresh after they didn’t play yesterday, the full-game “under” is the right move.
MLB Pick: Rockies/Royals Under 8 (-105) at BetOnline
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Angels
Thursday, April 24, 2025 – 09:29 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
Pittsburgh’s Underrated Starter
Carmen Mlodzinski starts for the Pirates today. His ERA looks terrible, but it conceals his 3.56 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding), which shows how well he is truly performing.
Decent is all we need — from a pitcher who is due for solid success — against an Angels lineup that has failed to exceed three runs in eight of its last nine games.
Pittsburgh’s Lineup
The Pirates will give Mlodzinski ample support while facing Tyler Anderson, the Angels’ starter today. They slug .467 against Anderson.
Look out especially for Bryan Reynolds, who carries a five-game hitting streak into today’s game and is 4-for-6 with a double and a home run with Anderson on the mound. With their starting pitcher performing well and their lineup primed to score many runs, the Pirates are a great underdog.
MLB Pick: First-Half Pirates ML (+112) at BetOnline
Texas Rangers vs. Athletics
Thursday, April 24, 2025 – 10:05 PM EDT at Sutter Health Park
Texas’ Overrated Pitcher
The Rangers are favored so heavily because big-name pitcher Jacob deGrom is starting for them. However, his 5.29 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) shows how poorly he has truly performed this season.
Thus far, he has benefited from a fortunately low BABIP (batting average of balls in play) and an unsustainably high strand rate.
J.T. Ginn
J.T. Ginn starts for the Athletics today. He is coming off an unfortunate start where he allowed a high run total but achieved a 1.31 FIP.
His favorite pitch, the sinker, is very hard for batters to hit, partly because of his ability to consistently locate it along the borders of the strike zone. He mixes in other pitches that share this virtue, benefiting from his precision as a pitcher.
Better Matchup
Ginn deserves more respect, which he’ll earn from bettors because his team matches up better against the Rangers than they do against his A’s. The Athletics rank sixth with a .455 slugging rate against deGrom’s favorite pitches from righties.
In promising form with two consecutive five-run games, the A’s will lead through five innings. Oddsmakers are way off with this one, allowing us to take the A’s on the run-line and to need them to at least be tied through five innings.
MLB Pick: Athletics First-Half +0.5 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
