MLB Best Bets for April 25: Blue Jays to Fly Past Yankees as Dogs
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LT Profits
- April 25, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Blue Jays ML (+115) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We are 8-3 in our last 11 Major League Baseball picks after a 1-1 split on Wednesday with our third play being rained out. We now return to another full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups for Friday, where we again have the three plays that we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds available.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three Friday selections consisting of one favorite, one underdog and one total. The first pitch for our first play tonight is at 7:05 PM EDT.
If you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice. Today, our expert has advice on the Reds vs. Rockies and Pirates vs. Dodgers games.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees
Friday, April 25, 2025 – 07:05 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium
In a battle of two pitchers with weak surface numbers, we see value with the underdog Blue Jays with Jose Berrios on the bump when they travel to the Bronx to face Carlos Carrasco and the Yankees Friday.
Overpriced?
The Yankees took a chance on Carrasco, signing him as a free agent despite him coming off back-to-back dreadful seasons and now being 38 years old. After a fine 2022 for the Mets, where he went 15-7 with a 3.97 ERA, he deteriorated quickly for them in 2023, going 3-8 with a 6.80 ERA, and things were not any better with the Guardians last year when he went 3-10 with a 5.64 ERA.
Now in his first season in the Bronx, Carlos is 2-1 in five appearances (four starts), but that record is undeserved given his 6.53 ERA and miserable K/BB ratio of 6.53/3.05 per nine innings. He was once a power pitcher back in the day that consistently his 100 MPH, but his average velocity was a career low 91.6 MPH last season and it is only marginally better this year at 91.9 MPH through 20.2 innings.
Carrasco is not missing many bats any more with a swinging strike rate of 8.1%, its lowest rate since way back in his rookie year of 2009! And most of that contact has been hard, with a poor soft/hard contact ratio of 14.7% / 36.8%. Simply put, Carlos cannot be trusted as a decided favorite at this stage of his career.
Vast Arsenal
Granted, Berrios is not setting the world on fire either at 1-1 with a 5.02 ERA, but, unlike Carrasco, at least he appears to have the potential to do better. He may not be as good as his 3.60 ERA and 3.65 ERA of the last two seasons respectively, but he is not as bad as his ERA this year either as evidenced by his noticeably better 4.30 xFIP. In fact, his career ERA and xFIP line up nicely at 4.09/4.17, so he projects to close to a 4.00 ERA long term.
Jose has a moderate strikeout rate of 7.53/9, but that is acceptable for a pitcher with a decent groundball rate of 43.4% and a good soft/hard contact ratio of 17.9% / 28.6%. He has a vast arsenal of five pitches, four of which he has thrown over 15% of the time. And he has been savvy, in that his two most frequent pitches, the sinker and cutter, happen to be his two highest rated pitches on Stuff+ at 99 and 97 respectively.
In a nutshell, in a matchup of two pitchers with high ERAs, Carrasco has terrible peripherals that make him unbettable as a favorite, while Berrios grades out better metrically at an underdog price. Therefore, bet on the Blue Jays as underdogs in Yankee Stadium.
Predicted Score: Blue Jays 6 – Yankees 4
MLB Pick: Blue Jays ML (+115) at Heritage Sports
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians
Friday, April 25, 2025 – 07:10 PM EDT at Progressive Field
We foresee more scoring than the posted total implies when Ben Lively and the Guardians host Tanner Houck and the Red Sox on Friday. This has us betting on the Over in Cleveland.
Deceiving ERA?
The 33-year-old Lively is coming off his best Major League season for the Guardians last year where he went 13-10 with a 3.81 ERA. His xFIP was higher however at 4.57, as he benefited from a lucky .265 BABIP allowed that enabled him to pitch around a poor soft/hard contact ratio of 12.8% / 30.9%.
Well, the early returns look quite similar to begin this year, as Ben is 1-2 but with a seemingly decent 3.86 ERA. However, the xFIP is again higher at 4.37 and the hard-contact ratio is considerably worse at 36.0%. Even more alarming is that most of that hard contact has been in the air with his groundball rate all the way down to 30.7% from 41.9% last year.
Moreover, his fastball velocity is down to 89.6 MPH, helping lead to a weak overall Stuff+ of 83 with a dismal 77 rating for the heater. That has also led to a career low swinging strike rate thus far at a puny 7.2%.
Back to Normal
Like Lively, Houck is also coming off a career year despite a losing 9-10 record for the Red Sox, as he posted a 3.12 ERA through 178.2 innings. And unlike Lively, Houck’s ERA was more deserved as it was accompanied by a 3.58 xFIP. Still, that season came seemingly out of nowhere after not showing that kind of ability at the Major League level previously.
Now, Tanner appears to be reverting to his previously mediocre form this season. He is 0-2 with a 7.66 ERA, although the ERA could be forgiven as it is greatly skewed by one atrocious start where he was charged with 11 earned runs in 2.1 innings. The greater concern is the xFIP of 4.41 lining up with his form before his surprising season last year. His strikeout rate is down over a full batter from last year to 6.57/9 from 7.76 while his walks are way up to 4.01/9 from 2.42.
The Stuff+ for Houck paints a similar picture as he has gone from a career best last year of 104 overall down to 98, with his fastball at an exceptionally weak 78.
So, both these pitchers have enough holes in their metrics to suggest that their good ERAs last season were fluky. We think that will lead to enough offense tonight to back the Over in this spot.
Predicted Score: Guardians 6 – Red Sox 5
MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (-125) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Friday, April 25, 2025 – 08:15 PM EDT at Busch Stadium
We are backing the home favorites from St. Louis Friday night, with Matthew Liberatore and the Cardinals helped by a nice rest advantage when they host Chad Patrick and the Brewers.
Great Command
Before getting to this pitching matchup, let us elaborate on that rest advantage as the Cardinals literally had Thursday off after flying home from Atlanta Wednesday following an afternoon game. Meanwhile, the Brewers had to fly two time zones after playing in San Francisco yesterday.
On to the matchup, the 25-year-old Liberatore made the St. Louis starting rotation during spring training, and he has been brilliant through four starts. Do not be fooled by his 1-2 record, as he owns a 3.60 ERA and, more importantly, currently ranks a very commendable 13th in the majors with his 2.77 xFIP.
That xFIP has been fueled by great command, with Matthew posting a K/BB ratio of 8.64/0.72 per nine innings! That K-Rate is validated by a nice swinging strike rate of 11.5%, which is not surprising given his most frequent pitch, the slider, is rated 110 on Stuff+. As long as Liberatore continues to keep his walks below his career norm of 3.17/9, he may very well be on his way to his best Major League season.
Not Really This Good
The rookie Patrick is getting his first taste of the Major Leagues at the age of 26, and he has surprisingly posted a 2.11 ERA while going 1-1 through five appearances (four starts) covering 21.1 innings. We are dubious of that ERA however, even with him going an amazing 14-1 at the Triple-A level last season with a 2.90 ERA.
Our skepticism is based on that fine ERA in Triple-A coming with a 4.43 xFIP, and that was after posting a 4.87 xFIP in the minors two years ago. And even now in the majors, Chad has a 4.35 xFIP early on that belies his current ERA. While his strikeout rate of 8.44/9 is nice, it is not supported by his lowly 9.2% swinging strike rate, and he is having command issues with the walk rate at 3.80/9.
It also does not help to be facing a Cardinals’ team that is 8-4 at home (2-11 on the road) while owning the second best home wRC+ in the majors at 133, behind only the Yankees.
To summarize, we have Liberatore graded as the much better pitcher right now and he has the support of an offense that has sizzled at Busch Stadium so far. Add in the sizable rest advantage and bet on the Cardinals as home chalk in this series opener.
Predicted Score: Cardinals 5 – Brewers 3
MLB Pick: Cardinals ML (-130) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
