MLB Best Bet for April 28: Swimming Against the Undertow

What happened to the Hitter’s Paradise we were promised? Pitch clocks and larger bases did indeed cause a spike in MLB run scoring back in 2023, up from 4.28 to 4.62 runs per team per game. Then they went back down to 4.39 last year, and here we are again at 4.28 through the first month of the 2025 campaign.

No surprise then to see the Under raking in the cash this year at a profitable 200-181 (52.5%) on the young season, and 49-39 (55.7%) during the past seven days. So, of course, we’re making the contrarian choice and putting the Over in our MLB picks for Monday’s matchup between the Athletics (13-10-4 Over at press time), who refuse to represent Sacramento, and the Texas Rangers (19-8 Under). It’s what we do here at the ranch.

Why Bet the Over?

Because Monday’s projected starting pitchers – as per the official MLB website – are both asking for regression. JP Sears (2-2-1 on totals) will take the mound for not-Sacramento; he leads their regular rotation with a 3.21 ERA, but his 4.36 xFIP is second to Luis Severino’s 4.07, and that’s already a career-best xFIP for Sears, now in his fourth big-league season.

The regression monsters might not be as hungry for Patrick Corbin (3.77 ERA, 4.26 xFIP), but Athletics hitters will be; they’ve amassed a combined .919 career OPS off Corbin, although he did limit the A’s to two solo homers in their last meeting on April 22. They cashed in the Over regardless by beating not-Sacto 8-5 (Over 10), leaving Corbin 2-1 in this category.

Meanwhile, Sears is still vulnerable Monday night with his .706 lifetime OPS allowed against Texas. Keep an eye on the MLB player props as they become available for 2B Marcus Semien (.833 OPS) and maybe back-up catcher Jonah Heim (.894 OPS), although we’re not sure what to make of No. 4/5 OF Kevin Pillar (1.445 OPS) and his 5-for-10 career record versus Sears.

Isn’t Globe Life a Pitcher’s Park?

It would appear so. The Rangers unveiled their new stadium in 2020 with dimensions that were tied to the uniform numbers of key players, including 329 feet (for No. 29 Adrian Beltre) down the left-field line and 326 feet (for No. 26 Johnny Oates) down right. “It’s a bigger ballpark than I expected,” 3B Todd Frazier told The Athletic at the time. Maybe that’s why he only played 31 games with them.

Globe Life has definitely been less generous than Sutter Health Park in West Sacramento, despite that stadium’s even larger dimensions; Baseball Savant gives the latter a 114 park factor for 2025, well ahead of Texas (88, No. 28 overall) and second only to Oriole Park in Baltimore (117).

Ah, but maybe some of this is smoke and mirrors and small sample sizes. West Coast ballparks generally give up fewer runs, although Sacramento’s is situated more inland than the others. And if you look at the three-year rolling average for Globe Life, it moves up to No. 19 overall with a park factor of 99. Did we mention the Rangers rank No. 28 in the majors this year with a .259 BABIP? Now we have.

The Pick

Our comfort level with the Over disappears beyond the first five innings. These have been two of the better bullpens in the bigs thus far; Texas is No. 6 on the FanGraphs WAR charts at plus-1.3, and the A’s are No. 12 at plus-0.9 WAR.

It’s supposed to get over 80 degrees for game time, which would normally cause them to close the retractable roof, so keep an eye on the status reports, and if you like what you see, pounce on those baseball odds when the 1st Five Innings lines hit the board.

MLB Pick: Over 1st 5 (-125) at BetOnline

Over 1st 5 (-125)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.