MLB Best Bets for April 29: Not Much Scoring in Windy City
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LT Profits
- April 29, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Brewers-White Sox Under 8 (-113) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We are 10-3 in our last 13 Major League Baseball picks after a 2-0 sweep on Friday with our third play being rained out. We now return to another full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups for Tuesday, where we again have the three plays that we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds available.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three Friday selections consisting of one side, one Over, and one Under. The first pitch for our first play tonight is at 6:35 PM EDT.
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
Tuesday, April 29, 2025 – 06:35 PM EDT at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
We expect a plethora of scoring in Baltimore Tuesday evening, and we are thus backing the Over when Carlos Rodon and the Yankees pay a visit to Kyle Gibson and the Orioles.
Veteran Journeyman
Gibson is now 37 years old and pitching for his sixth team in six years. But the sad fact is he keeps bouncing around from team to team because he has not been impressive at any of his stops, and he is now being called up from the minor leagues to make his first 2025 start for the Orioles.
Being in the minors at Kyle’s age is not a good sign, and while he was 8-8 for the Cardinals last season, he posted a nondescript 4.24 ERA and 4.19 xFIP. He also experienced some back tightness in his last minor league start at Aberdeen, but he has received clearance to take this start.
Kyle Gibson has never been a huge strikeout guy, but even his walk rate went up for the Cards last season to a disturbing 3.61/9 and his velocity was at a career low of 91.4 MPH. That led to a poor soft/hard contact ratio of 16.6% / 35.1%, with that hard-contact rate up 4% from 2023.
To make matters worse, he makes his seasonal debut against the best offense in baseball with the Yankees owning a huge wRC+ of 126 against right-handers, and he cannot count on much support from a Baltimore bullpen that is 25th in ERA (4.74) and 21st in xFIP (4.25).
Walks Up
Now, we like Carlos Rodon, and he does have a 3.50 ERA and 3.34 xFIP despite his 3-3 record. However, he is struggling badly with his command right now with his walk rate at 4.50/9, which is its highest point since the 4.59/9 during his rookie season way back in 2015. And he has been lucky to pitch around that traffic due to a BABIP allowed of .200, which does not figure to continue.
Carlos is still clocking 94.3 MPH on his fastball at the age of 32, but that is noticeably down from 95.4 MPH last season. That has been reflected by a 3% reduction in his swinging strike rate to 11.0% from 14.0%. Thus, we do not think Rodon will escape unscathed here, which is an added boon to the Over considering we think the Yankees should light up Gibson and the shaky Orioles’ bullpen.
So, with the Yankees potentially scoring at will and with the Orioles providing at least some offense against Rodon, we are betting on the Over in Camden Yards on Tuesday.
Predicted Score: Yankees 7 – Orioles 5
MLB Pick: Over 10 (-103) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Tuesday, April 29, 2025 – 07:07 PM EDT at Rogers Centre
We are calling for an upset north of the border Tuesday night, where we are betting on Bowden Francis and the Blue Jays at what we feel is an overlay underdog price hosting Garrett Crochet and the Red Sox.
Effective Since Becoming Starter
Bowden Francis pitched out of the bullpen in his first two seasons in the Major Leagues, but he joined the Toronto starting rotation last year with mostly good results. He finished 8-5 with a commendable 3.30 ERA through 103.2 innings, and his arm withstood the added workload as he had an overall Stuff+ of 99. His fastball graded out at 98, but his second most frequently thrown pitch, the splitter, graded out better at 107.
He is off to a 2-3 start this season, but that is deceiving given his 3.58 ERA. In fact, Bowden has allowed three earned runs or less in all five of his starts so far this year. The aforementioned splitter is generating more groundballs than ever, with that rate all the way up to 40.5% from 34.3% last season, and he has raised his soft-contact rate to 22.5% from 17.1%.
He is facing a Boston offense whose worst offensive split has been facing right-handers on the road, where the wRC+ is slightly below average at 99.
All About the Price
Now, make no mistake, as Garrett Crochet is the legitimate Boston ace and one of the best pitchers in baseball. He comes in at 2-2 with a spiffy 1.95 ERA, as well as a double-digit strikeout rate. It is rather surprising, though that while his xFIP is still very good at 3.15, that figure is noticeably higher than his ERA despite the excellent strikeout rate.
The reason for that is Garrett’s command has not been as good as last year with his walk rate way up to 3.65/9 from 2.03/9 last season. Moreover, he is coming off his worst start of the year where he took the loss against the Mariners allowed four earned runs in five innings with an ugly five walks running up his pitch count.
And the southpaw Crochet is now facing a Toronto offense that is third in the Major Leagues in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers at a hefty 139.
In summary, Crochet can be a Cy Young Award candidate when he has good command, but that has not been the case so far, especially in his last start. Add in facing a good pitcher in Francis and an offense that has been crushing southpaws, and we are backing the Blue Jays as nice home underdogs.
Predicted Score: Blue Jays 4 – Red Sox 3
MLB Pick: Blue Jays ML (+140) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago White Sox
Tuesday, April 29, 2025 – 07:40 PM EDT at Rate Field
We do not expect an abundance of scoring in the Windy City on Tuesday night, so we are supporting the Under when Freddy Peralta and the Brewers hit the road to visit Bryse Wilson and the White Sox.
Peak Form vs. Weak Offense
Freddy Peralta has carved out a nice career for himself, as the now 28-year-old has a lifetime 3.74 ERA and aligning 3.78 xFIP over 787.2 innings in the Major Leagues. However, while he has been consistent, he has yet to have that one career year that many have been waiting for given his great stuff.
Well, could this be the year? Freddy deserves better than his current 2-2 record as it comes with a 2.43 ERA, as he has allowed two runs of less in five of his six starts and only three runs in the other one. He may be reaching his peak as his average velocity of 95.1 MPH is a career high, resulting in more career highs in both overall Stuff+ at 106 and fastball Stuff+ at 114. Furthermore, he also owns a career high swinging strike rate of 14.9%.
Add in a nice soft/hard contact ratio of 18.2% / 26.1% with that hard-contact rate down almost 6% from 31.8% last season and it is easy to see why this could become Peralta’s career year if he starts getting some run support. And the good news there is, he may not even need too many runs tonight facing the worst team in the American League, with the 7-21 White Sox having a weak offense against right-handed pitchers with a wRC+ of 81 (19% below average) against them.
Can Do His Part
If we are correct about Peralta being able to shut down the White Sox offense tonight, then it would give Wilson some leeway in being able to allow a few runs while still keeping this game Under the total. And he was pitching well in his first start of the season last Wednesday following nine relief appearances but received an early hook despite allowing just one run in 2.2 innings.
Bryse Wilson has split time between various starting rotations and the bullpen throughout his career, so we expect him to receive a longer leash tonight, especially if Chicago wants to make him a fulltime starter. He does have a vast arsenal with five pitches, four of which he has thrown at least 20% of the time. The one exception is the fastball, which he has thrown only 12% of the time.
Given that he will not blow anyone away with that heater clocking at just 91.9 MPH, it is wise that he is showcasing his other pitches, topped by a sinker graded at 117 on Stuff+ and his curveball at 106. And while the resulting 4.30 ERA has not been earth-shattering, Wilson has been unlucky with a .354 BABIP, so the ERA should go down as that stabilizes while he accumulates innings as a starter.
The bottom line here is that Peralta looks primed to reach elite status this season and should have no issues with the terrible While Sox offense. And with Wilson competent enough to keep the Brewers in check, we feel the Under is the prudent selection in this spot.
Predicted Score: Brewers 4 – White Sox 2
MLB Pick: Under 8 (-113) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
