Top MLB Pick: Reds/Brewers First-Half Over 4.5 (-102) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their odds for today’s baseball action. Three games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Astros vs. Twins, Yankees vs. Pirates and Reds vs. Brewers.
For your best bets, I will recommend the following first-half wagers: Astros money-line, Yankees run-line and Reds/Brewers “over.”
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins
Saturday, April 05, 2025 – 02:10 PM EDT at Target Field
Houston’s Starter
Spencer Arrighetti starts for the Astros today. He enjoyed a fantastic start to his season by holding the Mets to one hit and one run in six innings. His start to the season shows how strongly he has improved relative to last year where he started that season by allowing seven runs to the Royals.
Over the course of last season, he became a more consistently successful pitcher. He looks to be carrying that success into this season.
Arrighetti vs. Twins Batters
Houston’s starter owns a great matchup advantage against Minnesota’s batters.
Primarily, Arrighetti throws a four-seam fastball, curveball, cutter, sweeper and changeup. The Twins rank 25th with a .295 slugging rate against these pitches from righties.
Houston’s Lineup
While Houston’s lineup has suffered a slow start this season, it’s obvious from looking at its collection of big names that this slow start cannot continue.
Indeed, Astros batters are already showing signs of ending their slow start. In their last game, they attained a respectable five-run total in Minnesota.
After inflicting San Francisco’s Landen Roupp with a 6.75 ERA and Minnesota’s Joe Ryan with a 7.20 ERA, they’ve now done well against the last two starting pitchers that they’ve faced.
Houston Batters Today
The Astros will, for a third straight time, do serious damage to their opposing starting pitcher.
Bailey Ober starts for the Twins with his reliance primarily on three pitches, a four-seamer, a changeup and a slider. Last year, Houston ranked seventh with a .428 slugging rate against these pitches from righties. One must expect them to build off their surging form today.
MLB Pick: First-Half Astros ML (+107) at BetOnline
New York Yankees vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Saturday, April 05, 2025 – 04:05 PM EDT at PNC Park
New York’s Starter
Marcus Stroman starts for the Yankees today. Stroman’s last start did not go well, but that does not say anything about how he will fare today.
In his last start, he pitched in Yankee Stadium where he suffered a 5.31 ERA. Throughout last season, however, he was significantly better in road games where his ERA was 3.09.
The Yankees are rather cheaply priced, despite how elite especially their offense has been, because they are on the road. But with Stroman pitching oddsmakers are wrong to cast the fact that the Yankees are playing on the road as a disadvantage for them.
Stroman vs. Pirates Batters
I love to play underdogs when it makes sense to do so, so I was initially eager to see how well some Pirates batters have fared against Stroman.
A deep dive shows, however, how much the success of active Pirates batters against Stroman stems from literally multiple years ago. But even last year means nothing right now for Pittsburgh’s batters, who right now are in a distinct state of decline.
The ones who have hit Stroman well are pretty much unable to hit any pitcher at this moment. Bryan Reynolds, for example, is batting .194. Tommy Pham has been even worse, plus he was taken out of yesterday’s game because he is ill.
This season, Pittsburgh’s lineup matches up terribly against Stroman, ranking dead-last with a .181 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
Pittsburgh’s Starter
Bailey Falter starts for the Pirates today. Falter did have a good start to his season, but he pitched against the low-talent Marlins.
New York’s lineup, which statistically has been one of the best and most effective this year, presents an insuperably stronger challenge for Falter.
Falter vs. Yankees Batters
Falter is a lefty who throws a fastball, curveball, slider and sinker. New York ranks number one, by a tremendous margin, with a .906 slugging rate against his pitches from lefties.
If you compare how the Yankees fare against Falter’s pitches from lefties with how the Pirates fare against Stroman’s pitches from righties, then you see how obvious the mismatch is.
I thought yesterday that the Yankees almost felt “too easy,” but then the Yankees simply won 9-4. We don’t need to bet on games that we feel are toss-ups. Let’s stick with what we feel most confident in.
MLB Pick: First-Half Yankees -0.5 (-110) at BetOnline
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Saturday, April 05, 2025 – 07:10 PM EDT at American Family Field
This Is More Than Faith
I believe that Cincinnati’s lineup will come alive today. Yes, the Reds have not been scoring runs. However, the ingredients are there for them to be doing so. Variance has simply been against them — they have been hitting the ball well but not getting actual on-field results.
Unlike Pittsburgh, for example, the Reds rank above average in xSLG (expected slugging rate), which tells us that their actual slugging rate will progress.
Reds Batters vs. Elvin Rodriguez
We should expect the Reds to score a lot of runs today because they are facing a soft challenge in the form of Milwaukee starter Elvin Rodriguez.
Rodriguez allowed four earned runs in four innings against Kansas City in his first start. This catastrophe is consistent with his career-long struggles: his career ERA is 9.49. He played in Japan last year and is clearly not ready for professional baseball, whereas the Reds are, obviously, professional batters.
Outlook for Milwaukee’s Lineup
The Brewers will keep pace with Cincinnati as they face Reds starter Brady Singer.
Singer throws a sinker, slider, cutter and four-seamer. Milwaukee ranks sixth with a .519 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
MLB Pick: Reds/Brewers First-Half Over 4.5 (-102) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
