MLB Best Bets for April 7: The Athletics Bow Before San Diego’s King
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Rainman M.
- April 7, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Padres -1.5 (+110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s action.
Four games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Cardinals vs. Pirates, Orioles vs. Diamondbacks, Reds vs. Giants, and Padres vs. Athletics.
For your best bets, I will recommend the following first-five plays: Cardinals, Orioles-Diamondbacks “over,” and Reds. I will also suggest placing a full-game wager on the Padres.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Monday, April 07, 2025 – 06:40 PM EDT at PNC Park
St. Louis’ Starter
Matthew Liberatore starts for the Cardinals today.
In his opening start, Liberatore allowed three earned runs against the Angels.
Yielding a 4.50 ERA in a game doesn’t look impressive, but he did a great job of limiting hard contact. His 1.61 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) shows how well he truly performed.
Liberatore vs. Pirates Batters
As a lefty, Liberatore owns a great outlook against a Pittsburgh lineup that has been struggling tremendously against left-handed pitching.
The Pirates are one of five teams to be slugging below .240 against lefties.
Most critically, they rank 29th with a .143 slugging rate specifically against Liberatore’s favorite pitches from lefties.
Great Matchup For St. Louis’ BattersÂ
The Cardinals will feast on Pittsburgh’s starter today, Carmen Mlodzinski.
Overwhelmingly, he relies on a fastball-slider combo.
St. Louis ranks number one with a .776 slugging rate against these pitches from righties.
They will have a much easier time hitting today than Pittsburgh’s batters will.
MLB Pick: First-Five Cardinals RL -0.5 (+118) at BetOnline
Baltimore Orioles vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Monday, April 07, 2025 – 09:40 PM EDT at Chase Field
Expect A High-Scoring Affair
This is a great matchup for both lineups because they both rank top-five against the opposing starter’s pitches.
For the Orioles, Zach Eflin throws a cutter, sinker, curveball, sweeper, four-seam fastball, and changeup.Â
The Diamondbacks rank fifth with a .500 slugging rate against these pitches from righties.
Arizona starts Zac Gallen tonight with his reliance on a fastball, knuckle curve, changeup, and slider.
Baltimore ranks third with a .609 slugging rate against these pitches from righties.Â
MLB Pick: First-Five Over 4.5 (-110) at BetOnline
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants
Monday, April 07, 2025 – 09:45 PM EDT at Oracle Park
Cincinnati Will Challenge The Low Total
With two starting pitchers enjoying strong reputations and one of the lineups generally struggling to score, seven might seem like a fair total.
But I do not advise playing the “under” for this game, because Cincinnati’s lineup actually has a great outlook for this game.
The Reds match up uniquely well against San Francisco’s starter Logan Webb based on the pitches that he throws.
I am not basing my observation of their matchup advantage on their performance against Elvin Rodriguez, Milwaukee’s terrible pitcher who throws most of the same pitches as Webb.
Even before facing Rodriguez, the Reds ranked sixth with a .474 slugging rate against Webb’s pitches from righties.
Cincinnati’s Starter, Hunter GreeneÂ
Greene has excelled this year, allowing two earned runs in five innings to the Giants and, most recently, one earned run in seven innings against Texas.Â
When Hunter Greene faced the Giants, his 3.60 ERA belied how well he truly performed. His FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) was 2.94 in that game. Therefore, he is good enough to allow fewer than two earned runs today.
Expectations must be especially strong for Greene given how well he matches up well against the Giants, who rank 26th with a .297 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Scoring one run, at most, off Greene will not be enough for the Giants given what the Reds will do to Webb.
MLB Pick: First-Five Reds ML (+115) at BetOnline
San Diego Padres vs. The Athletics
Monday, April 07, 2025 – 10:05 PM EDT at Sutter Health Park
San Diego’s Starter
Michael King starts for the Padres tonight.
King bounced back tremendously well from his opening start.
Most recently, he held the Guardians to two hits and zero runs in five innings. He struck out eleven batters.
King vs. Athletics Batters
Last year’s game against the Athletics creates excellent promise for King tonight.
While his 3.00 ERA against the A’s in that game doesn’t seem spectacular, his FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) was -0.43, showing that he is capable of performing at an elite level when facing the A’s.
His form suggests that he is well-positioned now to demonstrate this capability.
One must expect him to dominate the A’s given the matchup details
He primarily throws a changeup, four-seamer, sinker, sweeper, and slider.
The Athletics rank 25th with a .324 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Outlook for Luis Severino
For the Athletics, Luis Severino starts tonight.
This season, Severino has struggled to avoid walks, home runs, and hard contact.
His 5.25 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) shows how much he is struggling.
San Diego’s lineup has a particularly strong outlook tonight because it slugs .461 against his favorite pitches from righties.
Luis Arraez, Elias Diaz, Manny Machado, and Fernando Tatis Jr. all slug at least .600 against Severino.
BullpensÂ
San Diego ranks 13 spots better than the Athletics in bullpen FIP.Â
The Padres’ bullpen advantage will ensure that they extend their lead even when King exits.
MLB Pick: Padres RL -1.5 (+110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
