Top MLB Pick: Twins-Royals Over 7.5 (+100) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Tuesday brings us a full 15-game card of MLB betting matchups with every team in action. And we are here with the three plays we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds.
These value bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, so let’s jump in.
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets
Tuesday, April 08, 2025 – 04:10 PM ET at Citi Field
Our model points to a total in Flushing, NY in the Marlins vs. Mets matchup Tuesday. Please note that this game has a time change and now goes in the late afternoon at 4:10 PM.
We are anticipating a pitchers’ duel at Citi Field in Flushing when Connor Gillispie and the Marlins pay a visit to Clay Holmes and the Mets. This has us backing the under on Tuesday.
Added Two Pitches
Holmes joined the Mets this season after pitching for the crosstown Yankees for the past three years, and he has now joined the starting rotation after pitching in relief for most of his career. The Mets made this move after a dominant spring training keyed by adding two pitches to what was previously just a sinker/slider repertoire.
Clay added a cutter and a change-up this season, with the latter making him more successful against left-handed batters after struggling a bit against them in recent years. Remember that Holmes served as the Yankees closer last year, so having only two pitches served him well while posting a 3.14 ERA, 3.01 xFIP, and a nice strikeout rate of 9.71/9 innings while recording 30 saves.
The added pitches, especially the change-up that is already rated 112 on Stuff+, made him unhittable this spring, and he could be a potential ace if he handles the workload. Also note Holmes faced these Marlins last Wednesday and allowed just one earned run with six strikeouts in 4.2 innings.
Already Pitched Well vs. Mets
Gillispie broke into the Major Leagues with the Guardians last season, although he tossed only eight innings in relief. He has made the starting rotation in his first year in Miami, and after allowing four runs in five innings in his first career start, he was much better in his second outing. In fact, this is a pitching rematch from Wednesday, when he limited these Mets to one run on four hits with six strikeouts in five innings.
Connor was a big strikeout guy in the minor leagues, and it is encouraging that he already has 18 strikeouts in 18 career innings in the majors, including last year. He has already seen a bump on Stiff+ on his fastball this year to 104 from 91 last season, and he is facing a Mets lineup that has not gotten going yet with a wRC+ of 88 (12% below average) in the early going.
So, what we have here is a pitcher in Holmes that has a chance to excel as a starter with his new arsenal, and a youngster in Gillispie that has maintained his good K-Rate at the big league level. Add two struggling offenses and bet the under.
Predicted Score: Mets 3 – Marlins 2
MLB Pick: Under 7 (-105) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals
Tuesday, April 08, 2025 – 07:40 PM EDT at Kauffman Stadium
While this looks like a decent pitching duel on paper, our concern is what will happen once the starting pitchers depart when Pablo Lopez and the Twins visit Cole Ragans and the Royals on Tuesday. Thus, we are betting on the Over with a relatively low total.
Probably Goes 5 Innings
Ragans is still the ace of the Kansas City staff despite going an unfortunate 11-9 last season, as he finished with an excellent 3.14 ERA, 3.45 xFIP and a strikeout rate of 10.77/9 innings. The one drawback, though, is that the Royals have chosen not to push Cole early on, limiting him to five innings in each of his first two starts despite posting a 3.15 xFIP and 11.70/9 strikeout rate over those 10 innings.
We expect more of the same tonight and for most of April until the weather starts to warm up. That is bad news, considering the Royals’ bullpen has not been great thus far. That unit ranks a collective 20th in xFIP in the early going at 4.25 with a middling 3.68 ERA. Perhaps even worse, the bullpen is not punching batters out when called upon, ranking 26th in pen strikeout rate at just 7.12/9.
Not As Many Swinging Strikes
Lopez is also considered the ace of the Twins’ staff, but he took a noticeable step back last season following his career year of 2023. He went 15-10 in 2024 with a modest 4.08 ERA, although that was a tad inflated relative to his 3.36 xFIP. Still, his decline was real based on Stuff+, as he went from an overall rating of 101 in 2023 to 95 last year and now currently 94 this season.
Most concerning has been the decline 1n Pablo’s swinging-strike rate. That percentage went from 14.2% in the career year of 2013 to 12.9% last season to a disturbing 9.7% so far this year. That helps explain the low strikeout rate of 6.00/9 through 12 innings, and the high hard-contact rate allowed of 30.8% is an additional concern.
And let us not forget that the Minnesota bullpen has not been the most reliable either, with that unit blowing a 2-run lead on the ninth inning of a 9-7 loss to the Astros on Sunday.
In the end, we see a higher scoring game than one would expect in a battle of aces, especially with Ragans expected to be limited to around five innings again. Add in the regression of Lopez since last season and two bullpens that can be unreliable, and we are going over this total.
Predicted Score: Royals 6 – Twins 4
MLB Pick: Over 7.5 (+100) at BovadaÂ
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants
Tuesday, April 08, 2025 – 09:45 PM EDT at Oracle Park
In a matchup of two potentially underrated pitchers pitching in a pitchers’ park, we are backing the under this Tuesday night, when southpaw Nick Lodolo and the Reds visit Landen Roupp and the surprising Giants.
Unlucky Last Start
Although you would not know it from his career 4.37 ERA, Lodolo shows potential to have a nice career in the Major Leagues after posting an xFIP below 4.00 in each of his first three seasons with a 3.77 career mark. He is 1-1 so far this young season, but the loss was extremely unfortunate last time out when he allowed just one unearned run on four hits without walking a batter in 6.2 innings against the Brewers.
In fact, Nick has yet to walk a batter in 12.2 innings, and while that will obviously not continue, he has improved his walk rate every year since posting a 3.40/9 rate during his rookie year of 2012. Remember also that he pitches his home games in hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park, so unsurprisingly, he has been better on the road. He posted road ERAs of 2.25 in 2023 and 3.56 last year, as well as road xFIPs of 2.22 and 3.30 those two years respectively.
He should now greatly appreciate pitching in one of the more spacious ballparks in baseball, Oracle Park. And although the Giants are off to a surprising 8-1 start, they have a below-average wRC+ of 92 against left-handed pitching.
Nice Soft/Hard Contact Rate
Roupp is another young pitcher that shows nice promise. He broke in with the Giants last season and posted a 3.58 ERA over 23 appearances (four starts) covering 50.1 innings. He did not post a double-digit strikeout rate like he did at every minor league stop, but it was still good at 8.40/9 at the Major League level. And he posted an impressive eight strikeouts while allowing four hits in four innings in his first start of the season.
One thing that Landen has done well since coming to the big league is avoiding hard contact. He posted a nice soft/hard contact ratio of 19.6% / 25.2% as a rookie last season, and again, pitching in a pitchers’ park is an added bonus. He is also facing a Cincinnati offense that has struggled against right-handed pitchers early on with a wRC+ of 79 (21% below average).
To summarize, we have two young pitchers that appear to have bright futures pitching in a big stadium with each facing an offense that has struggled against their handedness. That sounds like a nice recipe to bet the under in San Fr ancisco in this spot.
Predicted Score: Giants 3 – Reds 2
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-113) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
