MLB Best Bets for March 28: Fade Houston Before It’s Too Late
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Jason Lake
- March 28, 2025
MLB Pick: Mets ML (+124) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
It’s time for the Houston Astros to break out the garbage cans again. But it’s not for stealing pitches – it’s because they’re that awful.
Houston could have had some betting value for our MLB picks this year after going 88-73 (minus-5.69 betting units) in 2024 despite a plus-91 run differential, which translates to 91 Pythagorean wins. Instead, they jettisoned so much talent during the offseason that the 2025 Astros are projected to go 83-79 at FanGraphs.
Compare and contrast to Houston’s regular-season win total of 86.5 at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review), even with the Under favored slightly at –125, and you can see why we’re eager to fade the ‘Stros for Friday’s MLB picks. It’s just too bad we’re relying on the Mets (89-73, plus-7.63 units) to get the job done for us at the top-rated sportsbooks.
New York Mets vs. Houston Astros
Friday, March 28, 2025 – 08:10 PM EDT at Daikin Park
What Happened to the Astros?
They ran out of rocket fuel. After missing the American League Championship Series for the first time since 2016, the Astros saw 3B Alex Bregman (4.1 WAR in 2024, as per FanGraphs) bolt for the Boston Red Sox in free agency. This was after they made the very non-Astros move of trading arguably their best player, RF Kyle Tucker (4.2 WAR), to the Chicago Cubs, a year before Tucker was due to hit the market.
It’s not a total disaster in Houston. Team owner Jim Crane is still willing to spend some cash; his Astros rank 10th in the majors this year with a $220.2-million payroll, as per Spotrac. But that’s down from $248.6 million (No. 6) last year.
It’s just not the same team anymore – fitting, since they’ve also changed the sponsor name for their stadium. At least it’s not Enron Field again.
What’s Wrong With the Mets?
From a baseball perspective, not much.
New York’s “other” team projects to go 86-76 this season, which is three fewer wins than last year – but still tied for fourth overall at FanGraphs. As a general rule, projections like these tend to squish the top and bottom teams closer to the middle of the standings.
There’s certainly no questioning owner Steve Cohen’s willingness to win. His 2025 Mets are 3rd overall in payroll at $321.7 million, over $100 million more than Crane is shelling out this season. However, money doesn’t always buy happiness; after he became principal owner and opened up the vault, Cohen saw the Mets go 77-85 (minus-23.35 units) in 2021 and 75-87 (minus-19.86 units) in 2023.
Big Money, Big Risks
On the flip side, New York has also made the playoffs twice on Cohen’s watch.
They won 101 games (plus-11.99 units) in 2022, and they’re coming off a 2024 campaign that saw them go all the way to the National League Championship Series before losing in six to the eventual World Series champions, the Los Angeles Dodgers. It all depends who you spend the money on.
Cohen dropped $75 million over three years to re-sign Sean Manaea, and another $34 million over two years to lure Frankie Montas from Milwaukee – but both pitchers are on the 15-day IL, leaving Tylor Megill (3.79 xFIP in 2024) to get the spot start this Friday against Hunter Brown (3.47 xFIP).
Again, it’s not a total disaster, but it’s not ideal for our betting purposes.
The Pick
We do have some concerns here at the ranch when it comes to fading a big-city team like the Mets. However, they’ve had enough headaches in recent years to keep expectations somewhat low, and they did lose Thursday’s 2025 opener 3-1 to Houston (–110).
Now BetOnline has New York at +124 on their MLB odds board after they opened at +120. We’ll buy that for a dollar.
MLB Pick: Mets ML (+124) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
