MLB Best Bets for March 29: Padres Undervalued Against Atlanta
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Rainman M.
- March 29, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Mets First-Half (+115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s action. Three games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Guardians vs. Royals, Braves vs. Padres, and Mets vs. Astros.
For your best bets, I will recommend wagering on Guardians-Royals first-half “under,” Padres first-half money-line, and Mets first-half money-line. By sticking to first-half bets, we avoid late-game, bullpen uncertainty and stick to investing in starting pitcher matchups that we are confident in.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals
Saturday, March 29, 2025 – 04:10 PM EDT at Kauffman Stadium
Strong Form
I like the first-half “under” for this game because both starting pitchers are ready to deliver a strong performance today.
Kansas City’s Seth Lugo would not appear to be a good candidate if you were to only look at his overall Spring Training ERA. But it is his last Spring Training start that most accurately reflects his current form. In that start, he allowed one run in 2.2 innings and accumulated five strikeouts to two walks.
Lugo’s last two seasons, which are the last two in which he operated as a starting pitcher, also featured excellent season-opening performances. In his last two season-openers, he’s allowed a combined total of one run in 13 innings.
Cleveland starter Gavin Williams is also ready to go. He finished Spring Training by throwing five shutout innings in which he amassed six strikeouts and walked nobody.
Williams vs. Royals Batters
Williams has a strong outlook in Kansas City’s venue. In Kauffman Stadium, he has collected two career starts. He has pitched 14 innings there and allowed two hits and one run. He amassed 12 strikeouts and walked three batters.
Against Royals batters, he yields a .187 BA and .253 slugging rate. In 75 at-bats against him, Royals batters have more strikeouts (19) than hits (14).
Seth Lugo vs. Guardians Batters
Lugo’s numbers against Guardians batters are similarly strong. In 66 at-bats against him, Cleveland hitters are mustering a .212 BA and .364 slugging rate.
Lugo loves facing them, especially at home. In two home starts against them last year, Lugo allowed a combined total of one earned run in 13 innings.
Takeaway
Both starting pitchers enjoy strong form and strong track records against the lineup they’ll face today.
MLB Pick: Guardians/Royals First-Half Under 4 (+112) at BetOnline
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres
Saturday, March 29, 2025 – 07:15 PM EDT at Petco Park
Betting Philosophy
In baseball, prices are of paramount importance. Simply picking who you think will win seems like the obvious thing to do, but it is a bad strategy because you can easily pick more winners than losers and still end up losing money.
If you focus on prices and on finding value, then you can actually pick more losers than winners and end up profiting. The key is to create a larger margin of error for yourself.
Padres at Plus Money
There is no error in this bet: San Diego will win. Getting a Padres team that has good starting pitching and an All-Star-laden lineup at plus money at home seems quite wild to me.
One of San Diego’s wins came when the Padres were posted at +100.
They are dogged more heavily because of the starting pitcher matchup. Oddsmakers are wrong here — the Padres actually have an advantage in this respect.
San Diego’s Starting Pitcher
Randy Vasquez starts for San Diego today.
The Padres are dogged because Vasquez had a tough season last year, regressing significantly in terms of ERA relative to two seasons ago. Vasquez, though, definitely has the skill, with his versatile mix of pitches, the balance in his repertoire, his high spin rate and his ability to throw consistent strikes. Perhaps most importantly, he has a pitching coach in Ruben Niebla, whose top-caliber quality is evident in his work with Seth Lugo and Michael King.
He looked a lot better during Spring Training, with his pitches missing bats more often. He finished Spring Training with a career-best Spring Training ERA of 3.38.
San Diego’s Starting Pitcher Advantage
Based on how each lineup performed — as measured by slugging rate — against the opposing starting pitcher’s pitches from righties, Vasquez owns the matchup edge over Atlanta’s starter Spencer Schwellenbach. When Schwellenbach faced the Padres last year, his surface-level stats looked great, but some of his advanced metrics elicit concern.
Vasquez at home allowed two runs in five innings against Atlanta last year, with his FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) and xFIP (like FIP but measures how many home runs a pitcher should have allowed based on the frequency of fly balls they allowed) both significantly stronger than Schwellenbach’s were in San Diego.
The point here is that this disparity in performance, as measured by advanced metrics, reflects what we should expect out of each starter in this matchup given how well (or not so well) each lineup performs against the opposing starter’s pitches from righties.
Takeaway
San Diego is a great value get with its strong lineup and its likable starting pitcher, whose improvement, matchup and track record justify confidence in his performance today.
MLB Pick: Padres First-Half ML (+115) at BetOnline
New York Mets vs. Houston Astros
Saturday, March 29, 2025 – 07:15 PM EDT at Daikin Park
Griffin Canning
Griffin Canning starts for the Mets today.
Canning is somebody who I am very high on this season. Oddsmakers are going to need time to adjust to how good he really is. He is a high-talent pitcher who has underperformed relative to his true potential, as he has struggled to deal with injuries and to maintain confidence in himself.
Very badly, he needed a change of scenery. New York’s coaching staff has also helped him tremendously. Accordingly, in Spring Training, he achieved a superb 1.88 ERA. He amassed 22 strikeouts compared with five walks.
Matchup Advantage
Last year, the Astros ranked 29th in slugging against Canning’s four main pitches from righties. While they added Christian Walker and Isaac Paredes, both are off to cold starts.
New York, last season, ranked seventh in slugging against Houston starter Spencer Arrighetti’s main pitches from righties last year. The Mets improved by adding star Juan Soto, who is already slugging .833 thus far.
Takeaway
Let’s profit from Griffin Canning’s improvement before oddsmakers adjust. Canning as a Met is underrated and owns a significant matchup advantage.
MLB Pick: Mets First-Half (+115) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
