MLB Best Bets for March 30: Starting Pitchers Duel in Seattle
-
Rainman M.
- March 30, 2025
Top MLB Pick: First-Half Under 4 (-109) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
For your best bets at the top-rated sportsbooks, I will recommend the following first-half wagers: Marlins ML, Red Sox ML and Athletics-Mariners “under.”
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins
Sunday, March 30, 2025 – 01:40 PM EDT at loanDepot park
The Price
I cannot believe that the Marlins are chalked, posted at -104, considering two decisive factors:
- They are still atrocious against left-handed pitching.
- Their starter today can hardly be called a professional pitcher.
Given these two factors, their opponent Pittsburgh is a must-play.
Marlins vs. Lefties
If you look at the names of its batters, it’s easy to see why Miami’s offense ranks low in any respect. The Marlins have particularly struggled against left-handed pitching.
Last year, they ranked third-to-last with a .352 slugging rate against left-handed pitching. In their last game, we got to see how they fare against left-handed pitching this season.
The Marlins faced Pittsburgh starter Bailey Falter, a lefty. They scored two runs in six innings against Falter. While this was unequivocally a great start for Falter, scoring two runs in six innings might not seem to be so atrocious for Miami’s lineup.
However, Falter’s FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) was 1.38. So, his great ERA in that game masked the actual excellence of his performance, which indicates that Miami is still struggling terribly to hit lefties.
Looking at Pittsburgh’s starter today specifically, Andrew Heaney, he primarily throws a fastball, slider, and changeup. Miami, last season, ranked second-to-last with a .330 slugging rate against Heaney’s pitches from lefties.
Miami’s Starter Today
Whereas Heaney is an established, veteran pitcher who contributed to the Texas Rangers’ World Series victory in 2023, Miami starts a pitcher in Max Meyer, who might belong in Triple-A.
Meyer’s career MLB ERA is 5.86 and his career professional FIP is 5.95. He doesn’t strike out a lot of batters. His poor command makes him concede a lot of walks. He also does a terrible job of limiting home runs.
His favorite pitch, the slider, frequently lands in the most middle parts of the strike zone, according to heat maps. That’s one of his two favorite pitches, although batters still slugged .476 against it last year.
The fastball is his other favorite pitch, which he threw about as often as his slider, around 40 percent of the time. Opponents slugged .648 against this pitch. Pittsburgh will have a much easier time hitting Meyer’s low-quality pitches than Miami will be trying to hit an established lefty.
MLB Pick: Pirates First-Half ML (-113) at BetOnline
Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers
Sunday, March 30, 2025 – 02:35 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
Major Fade
I have been eagerly awaiting the opportunity to fade Texas’ starter today, Jacob deGrom.
The Rangers are strongly favored in this game because deGrom has built a reputation for himself as a great pitcher. I am not questioning this reputation. What I am saying is that today, and still for some time after today, he will not be anywhere near the pitcher that he used to be.
DeGrom is now an aging pitcher — he is 36 now — who is struggling to reestablish himself after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2023. Last year, he managed all of 10.2 innings. In Spring Training, he inspired great concern because, as is often the case with pitchers who spend so little time on the mound, he developed grave mechanical issues that he will need a lot of time to work on.
One struggle that he’s having is with the positioning of his shoulder when he pitches. A consequence of this is that he is leaving too many pitchers over the middle of the plate. Opposing batters will feast on deGrom in his current form. This creates great value in his opponents while oddsmakers treat him as the deGrom of the past.
Boston is especially a good play because its starting pitcher Richard Fitts does not exhibit the problems that deGrom has after Fitts looked good during Spring Training.
MLB Pick: Red Sox First-Half ML (+160) at BetOnline
Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners
Sunday, March 30, 2025 – 04:10 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park
Athletics’ Starter
JP Sears starts for the Athletics today. He must be excited to pitch in Seattle’s venue. Here, he owns a career 1.59 ERA in 17 innings. Sears must be expected to succeed anywhere against Seattle’s batters because he matches up well against them.
Last year, the Mariners slugged .353 against his pitches from lefties. They are still struggling against those pitches from lefties — their slugging rate is .130 against them. They reliably fail to produce positive results against left-handed pitching, and Sears has proven that he can be counted on to thrive in Seattle’s venue.
Seattle’s Starter
Bryan Woo starts for the Mariners today. His outlook is solid against an Oakland lineup that cannot hit him. In 72 at-bats, A’s batters have together managed one extra-base hit against Woo. Their collective slugging rate is .208 against him.
They evidently have not figured out how to achieve meaningful success against him. We must therefore expect Woo to keep this game low-scoring.
MLB Pick: First-Half Under 4 (-109) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
