MLB Pick: Mariners -1.5 (+110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Picks Summary:
- Mariners vs. Cubs: Mariners -1.5 (+110)
- Royals vs. Rangers: Over 9 (-105)
- Cardinals vs. Rockies: Over 11.5 (-105)
We’ve got a loaded slate on the horizon tonight in the MLB. We’ve also got a bunch of new teams facing one another. Let’s have a great start to the week!
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago Cubs
Monday, April 10, 2023 – 07:40 PM EDT at Wrigley Field
It’s Luis Castillo Day
The Mariners have enjoyed Luis Castillo in their starting rotation. He’s thrown two games this season and has a 0.00 ERA in 11.2 innings. In those 11.2 innings pitched, he’s struck out 12 batters and has a WHIP of .43. Through two games, he’s putting up Cy Young numbers.
He’ll take on a Cubs lineup that hasn’t been consistent since last year. When combining this year and last, the Cubs have hit a .132 wOBA and ISO of .284 against righties with their projected lineup.
Only Ian Happ has a wOBA of above .232 against righties in that lineup. Check out some averages for the Cubs’ projected lineup against righties, with an average of 374 plate appearances per player.
- .132 ISO against righties
- .284 wOBA against righties
- 24.7% strikeout rate against righties
- 7.9% walks against righties
Castillo should have another big night on the mound.
Don’t Trust Drew Smyly
Drew Smyly has an xFIP that’s getting close to 5. He’s struck out fewer than 20% of batters but has at least kept walks down to under 6%. Smyly allows a lot of extra-base hits and that puts him in trouble quickly.
He already has an 11.57 ERA with only three strikeouts to begin the year.
The Mariners have a lethal lineup against lefties. Julio Rodriguez has hit a .200 ISO, while Teoscar Hernandez has a .450 ISO against lefties dating back to last season. But it doesn’t stop there. Eugenio Suarez has a .261 ISO, Cal Raleigh has a .213 ISO, A.J. Pollock holds a .321 ISO, and Sam Haggerty even has a .257 ISO.
The Pick
There’s so much extra-base hit potential in this Seattle lineup. Back the Mariners at -1.5.
For Seattle residents looking to bet on this game, you can do it at our top Washington betting sites.
MLB Pick: Mariners -1.5 (+110) at BetOnline
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers
Monday, April 10, 2023 – 08:05 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
Can Zack Greinke Finally Earn a Win?
Zack Greinke is currently 0-2 with the Royals despite having a .2.38 ERA in 11.1 innings pitched. Greinke hasn’t been superb, but he’s done enough. He’s struck out eight batters and holds a WHIP of 1.41. He’s escaping damage through two games.
However, back to last season, Greinke has allowed a 5.07 xFIP with 12.8% of strikeouts. He’s limited walks but allows plenty of line drives and only gets ground balls two out of five times when a ball is in play. The Rangers haven’t had the best offense dating back to last season. Against righties, the Rangers are hitting poorly.
The projected lineup has a:
- .147 ISO against righties
- .285 wOBA against righties
- 25.6% strikeout rate against righties
- 7.9% walk rate against righties
But the Rangers have hit just 37.9% of ground balls and 22.5% of line drives as a projected lineup. So, there’s still some potential for the Texas bats.
Will Change of Scenery Hurt Andrew Heaney?
Andrew Heaney went from Los Angeles to Texas. After one start, he’s likely rethinking things. Heaney has a 23.63 ERA through one start, where he went 2.2 innings and allowed a WHIP of 3.38.
Heaney was terrific in Los Angeles last year. He’s got a 3.46 xFIP dating back to last season with 34% of strikeouts and 6.7% of walks. But he’s still allowed an ISO of .248 to his last 263 righties faced as a left-handed pitcher.
The Royals haven’t been very good offensively this season. But have more potential against lefties. The projected lineup has hit a .332 wOBA, with the top five guys hitting an ISO above .170. The Royals should have at least seven righties in the lineup. They’ll do damage against Heaney.
The Pick
Let’s back the Over 9 in this matchup for your MLB picks.
MLB Pick: Over 9 (-105) at BetOnline
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Colorado Rockies
Monday, April 10, 2023 – 08:40 PM EDT at Coors Field
Power Outage in Colorado?
German Marquez will take the hill for the Rockies. He’ll make his start in Colorado, where the total is sitting at 11.5. Marquez has allowed an ISO of .220 to his last 449 lefties and a .198 ISO to his last 375 righties.
The Cardinals are hitting a .170 ISO and wOBA of .339, with their projected lineup dating back to last season. The big bats like Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado are both slugging against righties and should see a couple of solid pitches to hit against Marquez.
In the St. Louis lineup, five batters are hitting an ISO of .184 or better against righties. There’s going to be plenty of power for the Cardinals tonight.
Steven Matz’s Struggles Against Righties
Steven Matz was well last year. Don’t get it twisted. He’s got an xFIP of 3.39 dating back to last year and struck out 26.6% of batters, but his numbers against righties were weak. Right-handed opponents hit a .335 ISO and wOBA of .205 against Matz in 180 plate appearances.
The Rockies will have seven righties in the lineup. The team has also hit a .163 ISO and wOBA of .326 against lefties dating back to last year.
Thanks to the altitude, Colorado’s offense has always hit better at home. One name to watch is Kris Bryant, who has a .243 ISO and wOBA of .388 against lefties in his last 81 plate appearances.
The Pick
Following the MLB odds, I’m also going to ride the Over in this matchup.
MLB Pick: Over 11.5 (-105) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
