MLB Top Pick of the Day
MLB Pick: Padres/Braves Under 9 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Picks Summary:
- Yankees vs. Orioles: Yankees -1.5 (+106)
- Cardinals vs. Brewers: Over 9 (+100)
- Padres vs. Braves: Under 9 (-115)
The best sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action.
For reasons that I will explain, you should play the run-line for the first game and the total for the second and third games.
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
Sunday, April 09, 2023 – 01:35 PM EDT at Camden Yards
The Reliable Nestor Cortes Jr.
Nestor Cortes Jr. starts for the Yankees today. He is coming off the best season of his career last year, in which he yielded a 2.44 ERA. His command improved, enabling him to concede walks and home runs at lower rates.
Of course, it’s easier for a pitcher to throw pitches in the strike zone when he can afford to have greater confidence in the quality of his pitches. Cortes’ two primary pitches are his fastball and cutter. Combined, they make up about 90% of his arsenal. Opponents last year batted below .200 against both of these pitches.
After allowing one run in five innings against the Phillies in his first start of this season, he looks primed to continue his success.
Cortes vs. Orioles Batters
Baltimore is just the team against which Cortes should be expected to continue his strong form.
Simply put, he owns this group. In five career starts against Baltimore, Cortes is 3-0 with a 1.06 ERA.
Tyler Wells’ Outlook
On the other side, Tyler Wells starts for Baltimore. Wells features a greater variety of pitches than Cortes, but “quantity over quality” does not really work in baseball.
He lacks the same success with his individual pitches that Cortes has been able to rely on with his stuff. In any case, Yankee batters are primed to do damage to Wells. They rank fifth in slugging .569 against his pitches from righties.
For Yankees fans looking to bet on this game, you can do it at our top New York betting sites.
MLB Pick: Yankees -1.5 (+106) at BetOnline
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Sunday, April 09, 2023 – 02:10 PM EDT at American Family Field
Confused About St. Louis’ Starter?
You might be confused about what to think of St. Louis’ starter. Is he the pitcher who looked so promising during Spring Training or the one who got shelled last week? The answer is the latter.
During Spring Training, he was working hard to make the team, so he succeeded because he was working harder than his opponents, but now his opponents are working just as hard, and they’re exposing him.
Woodford’s debacle last week in which he surrendered six earned runs in 4.1 innings against Atlanta highlights the reality that he is not much more than a Triple-A pitcher donning a major league uniform on a poor rotation that is missing good and reliable pieces.
Bad Matchup for Woodford
Woodford also matches up poorly with Brewers’ batters.
They slug .506 against his favorite pitches, the sinker, sweeper, and fastball, from righties.
Freddy Peralta’s Outlook
For Milwaukee, Freddy Peralta gets the start today. He does not enjoy facing the Cardinals. In his career, he is 2-4 with a 6.59 ERA in eight starts against them. We should expect these struggles to continue because he matches up poorly against them. They slug .533 against his two favorite pitches, the fastball, and slider, from righties.
Look out, especially for star Cardinals duo Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt. Both bat well over .350 and slug well over .850 in over 15 career at-bats with Peralta on the mound.
MLB Pick: Over 9 (+100) at BetOnline
San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves
Sunday, April 09, 2023 – 07:08 PM EDT at Truist Park
Seth Lugo Is Starting?
It might still feel confusing to see Padres’ pitcher Seth Lugo in the starting role. While he hadn’t made a start since 2020, his first one of this season went quite well.
In that start, he lasted seven innings while giving up one run to the Rockies.
Seth Lugo’s Arsenal
Lugo has a nice variety of pitches to sustain him over the course of a longer outing. Relievers will generally only need two pitches because they won’t face batters over and over again like starters will.
While Lugo does primarily rely on two pitches, his fastball, and curveball, he also mixes in a slider and sinker with over 10% frequency.
Expect a Pitcher’s Duel
For your MLB picks, expect both starters to thrive today because they match up well against the opposing lineup.
Braves’ batters slug below .400 against Lugo’s two favorite pitches from righties while San Diego ranks 26th in slugging .302 against Braves’ starter Dylan Dodd’s two primary pitches from lefties.
MLB Pick: Under 9 (-115) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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