MLB Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+118) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Both League Championship Series continue Thursday with the Phillies/Diamondbacks playing Game 3 and the Astros/Rangers playing Game 4, and we have three best bets at the top sportsbooks in the two games.
These are value bets mostly based on our proprietary model, thus when we make underdog plays, it means we project long-term profit at the odds posted even with a sub-.500 record.
Based on the MLB betting odds, we have one such value dog Thursday, as well as a same-game 5-inning bet and a value total.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Thursday, October 19, 2023 – 05:07 PM EDT at Chase Field
The Phillies hold a 2-0 series lead after winning the first two games at home as decided favorites, but with this being the only game in this series as of now where our model has Arizona as a small favorite, our first play on this game is the Diamondbacks with Brandon Pfaadt for the first five innings over Ranger Suarez and the Phillies.
Settled Down Last Game
Despite Pfaadt’s overall numbers this season of 3-9 with a 5.72 ERA and 4.46 xFIP, he pitched much better than that after his second recall after looking like a deer in headlights upon his first recall, which was his first taste of the Major Leagues. After August 1st, Pfaadt posted a commendable 3.89 xFIP with a good K/BB ratio of 9.82/2.30 per 9.
And Brandon’s two playoffs starts have been as bi-polar as his two stints in the majors this year. Nerves may have gotten the best of him in his post-season debut in Milwaukee where he allowed three runs on seven hits plus one walk in only 2.2 innings, but he settled down nicely in his NLDS start here at home vs. the Dodgers tossing 4.2 scoreless innings allowing just two hits, and hopefully he earned a longer leash for tonight.
Iffy Backend Rotation
Meanwhile, the Phillies may have the best 1-2 pitching punch in baseball with Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, but their rotation is very iffy after that including tonight’s starter Suarez, who finished the season 4-6 with a 4.18 ERA and 4.05 xFIP. He battled command issues all year, finishing with an unsightly walk rate of 3.46 BB/9 over 125 innings.
Ranger was used as a quasi-opener on his first playoff start being pulled after 3.2 scoreless innings allowing just one hit, but to be fair he did pitch well again last time out when allowed to go five innings, getting the win allowing only one run on three hits. Still, Suarez was never this good over an extended period all year and Pfaadt’s form since his second recall simply grades out better, especially when Suarez’s walk issues resurface.
The Pick
So combining our model grading Pfaadt as the better pitcher with Arizona’s urgency not to go down 3-0, bet the Diamondbacks as underdogs for the first five innings.
Predicted Score: Diamondbacks 3 – Phillies 1 (First 5 innings)
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+110) First 5 innings at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Continuing with this same game, as we mentioned above our model has Arizona as a small favorite this game with this Pfaadt vs. Suarez matchup in the desert, so we are also betting the Diamondbacks as underdogs for the full game.
Bullpen With a Lead
We have harped several times during these playoffs that Arizona had the worst bullpen xFIP after September 1st of any team to make the post-season at 4.32, but if things go according to plan, we project the pen to enter this game with a lead, preferably a multi-run lead, especially if Pfaadt is allowed to go six innings.
Also to be fair, while the Arizona pen has been only marginally better during these playoffs with a 4.26 xFIP, the Philadelphia bullpen which was so good all year has the worse post-season xFIP at 4.61, although most of that has come in garbage time with the Phillies losing just one playoff game so far.
The Pick
Still, that does not deter from the fact that we have Arizona favored in this spot at home, so we are doubling up and betting the Diamondbacks as underdogs for the full game also.
Predicted Score: Diamondbacks 5 – Phillies 4
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+118) at Heritage Sports
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers
Thursday, October 19, 2023 – 08:03 PM ET at Globe Life Field
The Rangers lead this series 2-1 after the Astros narrowed the gap with an 8-5 win last night, but after that slugfest, we look for the starting pitchers Andrew Heaney and Jose Urquidy to take over Thursday and are thus betting the Under.
Strong Finish
Heaney finished the season 10-6, but with an unspectacular 4.15 ERA and 4.58 xFIP, which was disappointing after posting a 3.10 ERA and 2.83 xFIP in a career year for the Dodgers last season. Still, while he came nowhere near his strikeout rate of 13.62 K/9 last year, he still struck out more than a batter per inning at 9.22 K/9 over 147.1 innings this season.
More importantly, Andrew finished the year strong with 9.1 scoreless innings, combining bullpen work with his final regular season start on September 30th where he tossed 4.1 scoreless frames, and he was then entrusted with starting Game 1 of the Wild Card series where he allowed one run on two hits over 3.2 innings. Heaney has been a proven starter his whole career, so do not be surprised if he is stretched out longer tonight.
Great Since Re-Entering Rotation
Now Urquidy has been injured for most of this season, so it is hard to take his 5.29 ERA and 5.45 xFIP at face value considering he was probably pitching hurt early on before spending three months on the injured list. Remember, this is a pitcher that had never posted an ERA over 4.00 in his career before this season.
Jose returned in August and pitched out of the bullpen while getting stretched out, and he was great in his return to the rotation on September 29th tossing six scoreless innings and allowing only two hits. Now deemed fit, he was great again in his ALDS start vs. the Twins allowing two runs on only three hits with six strikeouts vs. one walk.
The Pick
With both pitchers seemingly peeking at the right time, go Under in Texas for Game 4 Thursday.
Predicted Score: Rangers 4 – Astros 3
MLB Pick: Under 9.5 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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