MLB Pick: Braves (-148) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Both National League Division Series continues with Game 2 on Monday after both series favorites lost Game 1, and we have three computer predictions over the two games.
Remember these are value bets mostly based on our proprietary model, thus when we make underdog plays, it means we project long-term profit at the odds posted even with a sub-.500 record. We have no value dogs on Monday, but we do have three best bets nonetheless including a double-dip in Los Angeles.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Monday, October 09, 2023 – 06:07 PM EDT at Truist Park
The Braves posted the best record in baseball this year but were upset by the Phillies 3-0 in Game 1 and now face the Major League WAR leader in Zack Wheeler Game 2. Still, we are backing the desperate Braves behind Max Fried.
Great When Healthy
Fried had an injury-plagued season where he logged only 77.2 innings over 14 starts, although he was great going 8-1 with a 2.55 ERA and 3.10 xFIP while striking out more than a batter per inning with 9.27 K/9. For those concerned about sample size, remember Fried posted a 2.48 ERA and 3.09 xFIP over 35 starts last year.
Thus, Max is legitimately as good as his numbers this year, and the injury time missed oddly benefits him as he is easily the fresher starter here. And he is clearly in good form based on his four September starts where he went 3-0 with a 1.88 ERA, 2.97 xFIP, and a very nice 10.13 K/9.
Is Wheeler Even Better?
With no disrespect to Wheeler, who is indeed one of the better pitchers in baseball, WAR is a cumulative metric so logging 192.0 innings helped him lead that department. He did go 13-6 with a 3.61 ERA and 3.54 xFIP, but those figures pale compared to Fried, albeit over a larger sampling this year.
But as mentioned, Fried already proved last year he could extrapolate his abbreviated 2023 numbers over a full season and we actually rate a fully healthy Fried, which he seemed to be in September, a bit better than Wheelers. Plus we do not see an Atlanta offense that led the majors with a wRC+ of 125 getting shut down two straight games.
So, with Fried seemingly undervalued and the Braves having the better overall offense here, bet Atlanta to even the series Monday at the best sportsbooks.
Predicted Score: Braves 4 – Phillies 3
The Pick
MLB Pick: Braves (-148) at Heritage Sports
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Monday, October 09, 2023 – 09:07 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
The Dodgers are in a similar position as Atlanta, getting upset Game 1 and now facing Cy Young Award candidate Zac Gallen of the Diamondbacks Game 2, but we feel Bobby Miller offers more upside and are backing L.A. over the first 5 innings as our first of two plays this game.
Fatigue Setting In?
Gallen is one of the two favorites for National League Cy Young with Blake Snell after going 17-9 with a 3.47 ERA and 3.49 xFIP. However, his 210.0 innings were well above his previous career high of 184 innings, and he wore down late going 3-4 with a 4.93 ERA with a K/BB ratio of 8.79/2.79 per 9 his last seven starts.
That ratio was considerably worse than his overall ratio of 9.49/2.01 per 9 for the whole season, and while he then allowed two earned runs in six innings in his Wild Card start in Milwaukee, he allowed five hits plus three walks with only four strikeouts, making a single-game xFIP of 4.80. Moreover, he faces a Dodgers offense ranked third in wRC+ vs. righties at 117.
Future Cy Youngs?
Speaking of Cy Young Awards, the rookie Miller may have several in his future after going 11-4 with a 3.76 ERA and 3.75 xFIP during his first taste of the Major Leagues while leading the league in average velocity at 99.1 MPH, hitting triple-digits with regularity.
Bobby hit a bit of a slump after taking the league by storm when recalled. Still, he finished strong posting a 2.78 ERA and 2.63 xFIP in his last four starts with a fantastic K/BB ratio of 10.72/1.59 per 9 while maintaining a 98.9 MPH average velocity, and he should be solid pitching on seven days rest.
Look for that rest to lead to more 100+ MPH pitches on Monday, so we are backing Miller over the first five innings over a potentially worn Gallen.
Predicted Score: Dodgers 3 – Diamondbacks 1 (5 innings)
The Pick
MLB Pick: Dodgers (-145) – 5 innings at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Continuing with the same game, we are also betting on the Dodgers for the full game to even up the series with the Diamondbacks thanks to a decided bullpen advantage.
Day Off Helps
The day off following Game 1 benefits both teams, but the Dodgers are the main beneficiaries after Clayton Kershaw recorded just one out while allowing six runs in the series opener. Still, the Dodgers used occasional starters Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove, and Shelby Miller to cover 6.2 innings and closed with a couple of low-leverage guys in the final two innings.
Thus, the normal Dodger bullpen is good to go and remember that unit led the Major Leagues in xFIP after September 1st at 3.23. A hot reliable bullpen also helps Miller as he can air things out without needing to pace himself.
Best vs. Worst?
Normally Gallen would be expected to go around one more inning than Miller, but that may or may not be the case tonight in his questionable late form vs. an elite offense. And the Dodgers did light Zac up the last time he faced them on August 28th for six runs on nine hits in 5.1 innings.
Regardless of when the Arizona bullpen enters, while the Dodgers lead the league in bullpen xFIP since the start of September, the Diamondbacks are dead last among remaining playoff teams in that same span, more than an entire run higher at 4.32.
Thus, we look for the Dodgers to finish the job and are betting on them for both 5 innings and the full game at the MLB odds.
Predicted Score: Dodgers 5 – Diamondbacks 3
The Pick
MLB Pick: Dodgers (-150) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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