Nationals vs. Phillies MLB Best Bet: Walker Means Many Markers on Scoreboard
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LT Profits
- August 18, 2024
MLB Pick: Over 9.5 (-105) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We have a full 15-game card of MLB betting matchups for Sunday with every team in action. And we are back with the three plays we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds.
These value-bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, which points to a total in the City of Brotherly Love in the Nationals vs. Phillies matchup Sunday.
Check out our other picks:
Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Sunday, August 18, 2024 – 01:35 PM ET at Citizens Bank Park
With Taijuan Walker of the Phillies being one of the worst pitchers in baseball this year and Jake Irvin of the Nationals also prone to hard contact, we are backing the Over on Sunday.
Atrocious Hard Contact Rate
The Phillies may have the best record in the Major Leagues right now, but Walker has done very little to contribute to that mark. He enters with a losing 3-4 record that should be worse as he has gotten nice run support. To wit, he has a dismal 5.68 ERA and 4.96 through 11 starts, making this probably his worst season in the majors at the advancing age of 32.
Taijuan’s velocity is at a career-low 91.3 MPH, down from 92.8 MPH just last year. The results have reflected that with a poor K/BB ratio of 7.58/3.79 per nine innings and a putrid swinging strike rate of 6.7%. Worst of all, Walker is an air-contact pitcher (groundball rate only 36.0%) with an atrocious soft/hard contact rate of 13/1% / 41.7%. That is one of the worst hard-contact rates in baseball, and to make matters worse he pitches in a hitters’ park.
Decent but Not Great
Now, Irvin has been quite respectable as he is 9-10 pitching for a losing team with a good 3.72 ERA and 3.94 xFIP. However, he too has some flaws that make him more vulnerable when pitching in this stadium than when pitching in Nationals Park.
For starters, he has only a moderate strikeout rate of 7.57/9 and is facing a Philadelphia lineup that does not strike out too much, ranking 18th in the league at 21.1%. That brings into play Jake’s hard contact rate, which while not as high as Walker’s is still above average at 33.9%.
Irvin is also facing a Phillies’ lineup that has an excellent wRC+ of 113 against right-handers here in this stadium.
So, while we feel that the Nationals can pull off the upset here, we are more comfortable betting the Over in Citizens Bank Park with both pitchers expected to struggle.
Predicted Score: Nationals 7 – Phillies 6
MLB Pick: Over 9.5 (-105) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
