MLB Pick: Rangers ML (-157) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
All 30 teams are in action on a full 15-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups Wednesday, including eight matinees.
We are coming off another 3-0 sweep Sunday, putting us at 11-4 in our last 15 plays in this space. For our second best bet for Wednesday night, our proprietary model sees value on a side when the Nationals visit the Rangers.
Check out our other expert picks:
Washington Nationals vs. Texas Rangers
Wednesday, May 01, 2024 – 08:05 PM ET at Globe Life Field
We are not believers in Trevor Williams and his 2.70 ERA for the Nationals, so we are taking this opportunity to fade him with Andrew Heaney and the World Champion Rangers at a reasonable price.
ERA is a Mirage
Williams comes in at 2-0 through five starts, but his underlying metrics do not support his 2.70 ERA, beginning with his 4.11 xFIP. This is a pitcher whose career ERA of 4.43 lines up closely with a career 4.65 xFIP, so as usual, his current xFIP this year is a closer representation of his true level.
Trevor has a weak K/BB ratio of 6.41/2.70 per nine innings. He has also been lucky not to yet allow a home run through 26.2 innings despite a poor career-high hard-contact rate allowed of 35.1%. That luck may run out tonight against a Texas offense that ranks ninth in the majors in home runs (34) and eighth in the league in wRC+ against right-handers at 110.
Better Than He Looks
Now, we totally get that Heaney is 0-3 with a 6.26 ERA that is nearly four runs higher than Williams. But unlike the latter, Andrew has some underlying signs of improvement. The southpaw still has a good strikeout rate of 8.61/9, and he has raised his soft-contact allowed since last year to 17.6% from 12.1% while lowering the hard-contact to 29.4% from 34.3%.
The ERA is skewed by an extremely low strand rate of 56.0 percent, which should normalize over time. He also benefits from facing a Washington offense that ranks 22nd in OPS against left-handed pitching and an identical 22nd in wRC+ against lefties at 87, or 13% below average.
So, with Heaney expected to regress positively, Williams expected to regress negatively and Texas being better offensively, bet the Rangers in a game we have modeled closer to -200 MLB odds.
Predicted Score: Rangers 6 – Nationals 3
MLB Pick: Rangers ML (-157) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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