Navy vs. Army College Football Pick: Expect Another Defensive Slugfest 

History

Matchup history is crucial to consider when these two teams play each other because of the importance that each one places on this special rivalry game.

They prepare for each other with a unique level of focus and, also because they play each other every year, develop a unique degree of familiarity with each other.

Historically, this game is expected to be low-scoring, the epitome of a rivalry game in which the defenses are locked in and the offenses suffer.

In their most recent games, they combined for 28 points last year, for 37 points in a double-overtime affair two years ago, for 30 points in 2021, for 15 points in 2020, and for 38 points in 2019.

Overall, the “under” is 8-1-1 in their last ten meetings. Bettors have come to auto-bet the “under” when these teams play each other and are rewarded for refusing to deviate from their instinct.

Why Is the Total as High as It Is?

Last year, the total was 28. After getting burned year after year, the sportsbooks seemed to have finally reached a low enough total because the “under” 28 wagers resulted in a push. As of Sunday morning, however, the total this year sits at 41.

My argument is that we should not overthink things and that we should continue to auto-bet the “under” for this matchup.

In order to explain why you shouldn’t perceive the current total as a trap set by oddsmakers, to explain why the higher total isn’t too good to be true, let me clarify why the total is this high.

Statistics show that both teams have become massively more productive on offense. Whereas Army ranked 123rd last year with 17.2 points per game, it ranks 30th this year with 32.1 points per game.

Similarly, Navy ranked 125th last season with 17.1 points per game and has rocketed to 39th place this season with 30.6 points per game.

Both Offenses Look (Somewhat) Different

Because both offenses care so much about this game, they tried to innovate. They knew that by remaining the same they would be doomed to repeat the grinding affair that we automatically expect this game to be.

Last year, Army moved from its traditional triple option to a spread offense where the quarterback lines up under shotgun. The Black Knights felt rewarded for their innovation because they beat both service academies, Air Force and Navy, although both games were low-scoring.

However, they were definitely also punished for their innovation because they struggled against all of the other schools. They lacked the personnel to make the necessary throws in the middle or outside the numbers and generally lacked the athletic ability to compete with non-service academy teams by relying on spread formations.

A Blended Approach

Again perceiving the need for change, they entered this year with the determination to instill a blend of old and new. They would still keep the triple option, which they knew they still needed. However, they would line up under shotgun or find other ways to throw more wrinkles depending on what they were seeing the defense do.

Navy, this year, likewise adopted a hybrid system whereby it is lining up under shotgun around 40-50% of the time.

Change Is Hard

At the end of the day, Army’s stats this year are intensely inflated by their success against losing teams that have low-ranking defenses. Its best scoring outputs came against the likes of Tulsa, which ranks 133rd in defense, and UAB, which ranks eight spots higher than Tulsa.

Meanwhile, it struggled to put up points in more recent affairs against North Texas, Notre Dame, and another service academy, Air Force.

While Army’s recent win over Tulane seems impressive, the Black Knights threw all of two passes, which is its lowest pass attempt total on the season.

Ultimately, Army cannot deviate from its run-first identity, which is why it won’t look meaningfully different on Saturday.

Navy, too, is finding change difficult. Its new offense was a rousing success at the beginning of the season, but teams are finding that they are able to prepare for it. As a result, Navy’s scoring average has declined significantly.

The Pick

Both teams are what they are — run-first, hard-nosed units — regardless of their attempts to be different.

The total is so high because both offenses have looked great against lesser competition, against poor defenses. But both defenses are going to be absolutely dialed in and completely prepared for this rivalry affair.

Ultimately, we should continue to follow our instinct and play the “under” for this annual matchup.

NCAAF Pick: Under 41 (-108) at BetOnline 

Under 41 (-108)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.