NBA Pick: Rockets -4 (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The Miami Heat seem to have given up, so we’re more than happy to put the Houston Rockets in Friday night’s NBA picks. Read on and get ready for the action!
Houston Rockets vs. Miami Heat
Friday, March 21, 2025 – 08:00 PM EDT at Kaseya Center
Remember when they said the balance of power in the NBA was shifting to the Eastern Conference? That was the before times: July 2024. The defending champion Boston Celtics were early +325 favorites on the NBA odds board to retain their title; the Philadelphia 76ers (+800) had just added Paul George, and the New York Knicks (+1000) had just added Mikal Bridges.
A few things have changed since then. Most notably for our purposes, the East has devolved into absolute shambles. Every team outside the Top 6 appears to have given up on the 2024-25 regular season. The very deep and talented 2025 NBA Draft is singing its siren song, luring woebegone franchises to the bottom of the league standings with the promise of a Cooper Flagg or a Dylan Harper.
Even the Miami Heat (29-40 SU, 29-39-1 ATS) aren’t immune. After finally pulling the trigger on the Jimmy Butler trade, the Heat looked like a team with betting value, going 4-7 SU and 7-3-1 ATS with competitive losses to the Knicks and the first-place Cleveland Cavaliers. But here they are now on a 0-9 SU downslide (1-6 ATS in their last seven), their worst ever under head coach Erik Spoelstra.
Meanwhile, the Houston Rockets (45-25 SU, 38-30-2 ATS) are on an eight-game winning streak at 6-2 ATS. Of course we’re putting them in our basketball picks for Friday’s matchup – although we’re a bit nervous now that they’ve moved from -5 at the open to -4 (-105) on the NBA odds board at BetOnline. You know, early money, sharp money, yadda yadda.
Are the Heat Really Tanking?
They insist otherwise, of course – that would be against Heat Culture. But if it falls out of the Top 14 on Draft Day, Miami’s own first-round pick for 2025 will go to the Oklahoma City Thunder (those guys again!) as part of that 2022 deadline deal that also saw the Heat send KZ Okpala to OKC, in return for a 2023 first-rounder (Jamie Jaquez Jr.) and a 2026 second-rounder.
As things stand at press time, Miami has fallen all the way to 10th in the Eastern standings, five games ahead of the No. 11 Toronto Raptors with 13 games remaining for each team. It’s highly unlikely the Heat will be able to out-tank Toronto or the other teams below them; in a brazen display of not giving a rat’s patootie, the Raptors and everyone else are resting their stars and giving heavy minutes to end-of-bench players on two-way and 10-day contracts.
Why Would the Heat Tank?
If they make the Eastern play-in as expected, the Heat still keep their pick – as long as they don’t advance to the playoffs proper. Staying in 10th would give Miami the most difficult path possible as the road team in the 9 vs. 10 Game. How far are they willing to drive this tank? We shall see.
Also, picks 5-14 at the draft will be doled out in reverse order of record, so Miami still has an incentive to keep losing even if they can’t fall much further than No. 8 in the draft lottery, which is where they sit at press time. That still gives them a 5.3% shot at the first pick and a 23.5% shot at a Top-4 selection according to Tankathon.
The Pick
To help their tanking efforts, Miami has repeatedly benched Andrew Wiggins (leg, day-to-day) and Kyle Anderson (DNP-CD), acquired from Golden State in the Butler trade, as well as veterans Kevin Love and Terry Rozier. It remains to be seen who will suit up against the Rockets, who are definitely not tanking as they try to lock down a playoff spot in the West; suffice to say it won’t be Miami’s best and brightest. Bet accordingly.
NBA Pick: Rockets -4 (-105) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
