NBA Best Bet for November 14: The Jazz Sound Like a Winner

The Angle

As of now, Utah is a 9.5-point underdog at home. This is a lot of points.

I get that Utah has been dismissively categorized as a “bad team,” but deciding whether to bet against the Jazz has to require a more complicated thought process because oddsmakers already accounted for Utah being a “bad team” by favoring Dallas so heavily.

Bad teams lose, but there is a lot of room for Utah to lose tonight’s game and still cover. So far this season, Utah has lost two games in which it also covered the spread. One of Utah’s ATS victims was, in fact, Dallas. On October 28, the Jazz were 11.5-point underdogs in Dallas but stayed within eight points.

It is perfectly reasonable to be inclined to think that the Jazz, in this rematch in Utah, can certainly cover the spread because they get the advantage of playing at home and because another eight-point loss would already net them an ATS win. But there is much more to it than that.

I will argue that the Mavericks, relative to their fantastic playoff run last year, are much worse. Utah, this season, is becoming stronger before our eyes, which is very much why I put “bad team” in quotation marks above.

Luka Doncic

Dallas revolves around superstar Luka Doncic. Doncic is, however, banged up. He is dealing with a right-knee contusion, for which reason he carries an injury designation into tonight’s game, although it is expected that he will play.

His injury is hurting his potential to perform. This season, he is converting 41.9 percent of his field goal attempts, making this his least efficient season as a scorer in his career. Given his form this year, it is likely that he will repeat his inefficient performance from the first meeting between these teams.

Another reason to expect a repeat of that inefficient performance is the fact that even last year he exhibited a marked tendency to struggle in Utah. Location matters for Luka tonight.

Three-Point Shooting

Much has been written about Utah’s poor three-point shooting this season. But it’s a long season. Teams make changes and improve. This is why you can’t just dismiss a group as a “bad team.”

In its last three games, Utah is converting 37.5 percent of its three-point attempts. For comparison’s sake, Dallas in its last three games is converting its three-point attempts at a 5.5-percent lower rate than Utah is.

This disparity explains why I believe that the Jazz, and not the Mavericks, will improve their three-point efficiency relative to the first meeting between these teams. Both squads, when they played, converted wide-open three-point attempts with the exact same low frequency.

The Jazz’s stronger shooting form will help them improve more greatly. Look out, among others, for power forward John Collins to stretch the floor and create good spacing for his teammates by continuing his strong three-point shooting.

Dallas’ Perimeter Defense

Utah’s three-point attack will benefit from the fact that the Mavericks are doing a poor job of guarding the perimeter. They are allowing too much dribble penetration, which is forcing them to scramble and collapse inside, which is allowing players driving the basketball to kick it back out to an open teammate behind the arc.

In their last game, the Mavericks gave up 120 points in a loss to Golden State despite the fact that the Warriors underperformed from behind the arc. Golden State, in particular, amassed wide-open three-point shooting opportunities but just happened to miss them at an unusually high rate.

Dallas can’t expect to be so lucky. It has indeed been allowing teams to make a lot of threes, regardless of Golden State’s singular disappointment, which is something that Utah with its strong form is built to continue.

A Maverick backer might try to counter by ignoring Utah’s strong form and by arguing that the Jazz lack good shooters. But Dallas has repeatedly been exploited by low-profile names. For example, Denver’s Peyton Watson made all of his four three-point attempts in his team’s win against Dallas.

Kyle Filipowski

The Jazz are stronger not only because their three-point shooting is better.

In their last two games, they scored 111 points in their upset win over San Antonio and 112 points in their loss against a hot Phoenix team because they are giving Kyle Filipowski more minutes.

Their uptick in offensive potency is coinciding with their greater reliance on Filipowski’s distribution. His court vision, crisp passing, and dribble-handoff actions are, as evident in his high assist totals, successfully getting his teammates more involved.

Partly due to his greater involvement, Utah is passing the ball a lot more. While it lacks a player with a high-profile name like Luka Doncic, it is playing great team basketball.

Takeaway

Utah will use stronger three-point shooting, Filipowski’s distribution and more dedicated passing to outscore the Mavericks.

For Dallas, Luka is struggling. The team is struggling to shoot well. Its defense is also porous in the interior, which negatively affects its ability to guard the perimeter. The Mavericks are heavily favored on the road tonight despite Utah’s ability to stay within eight in their first meeting and despite the fact that the outlook for the Jazz is stronger now than it was then.

NBA Pick: Jazz +9.5 (-115) at BetOnline

Jazz +9.5 (-115)

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