Top NBA Pick: Timberwolves +3.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
With 13 games on the NBA slate, we’ve got three best bets that we’re eying for tonight’s matchups. Which bets at our main offshore sportsbooks will you tail?
Denver Nuggets vs. Atlanta Hawks
Monday, December 11, 2023 – 07:30 PM ET at State Farm Arena
Offensive Showdown
It’s been a brutal last week for the Nuggets. They’ve lost three straight. But a long weekend should help the Nuggets get back on track. Although Denver has Jamal Murray listed as questionable, the Nuggets are still stacked on offense.
They’ve been above average in points per 100 possessions, effective field goal percentage, turnover percentage, and offensive rebounding percentage. Denver doesn’t get to the foul line often, but they do everything else very well behind MVP candidate Nikola Jokic.
With the Hawks allowing 118.3 points per 100 possessions and an effective field goal percentage of 57%, the Nuggets should have their way offensively. They’ll be super active on the glass and limit turnovers against a pesky Atlanta team that has earned 15.3% of turnovers.
Meanwhile, the Hawks are super talented on offense too. Behind Trae Young and Dejounte Murray, the Hawks have added 119.3 points per 100 possessions. They’re able to get to the foul line at a high rate and are also very active on the offensive glass.
With Denver adding only 12.8% of turnovers per game this season, the Hawks should be able to get solid looks and earn lots of volume from the field.
That’s why the Over 241.5 makes the most sense in this one.
NBA Pick: Over 241.5 (-110) via BetOnline
Dallas Mavericks vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Monday, December 11, 2023 – 08:00 PM ET at FedExForum
Beyond the Scoreboard
It’s been an embarrassing season for the Memphis Grizzlies this year. Bettors have made a fortune betting against Memphis, as the Grizzlies have just six wins on the season. But they’re only 1.5-point underdogs at home against the Mavericks tonight.
That’s because Kyrie Irving, Grant Williams, and Maxi Kleber will all miss this game for the Mavericks. Meanwhile, Marcus Smart won’t play for the Grizzlies tonight, either.
That said, Dallas still has one of the best offenses in the NBA. They’ve added 119.7 points per 100 possessions behind an MVP candidate in Luca Doncic. The Mavericks have shot a 56.6% effective field goal percentage and have limited turnovers to 11.8%.
Meanwhile, the Grizzlies give up a lot of foul shots and are only good at forcing turnovers on defense. They’re not going to add many turnovers against the Mavericks.
On the flip side, the Grizzlies have earned only 108.1 points per 100 possessions. That’s 28th in the NBA. They’re also 29th in effective field goal percentage with a 51.1% effective field goal percentage.
The Grizzlies rarely find the foul line but should at least have some success on the offensive glass. Still, Memphis has missed a lot of shots, while the Mavericks have been way more consistent from the field.
I’ll take the Mavericks on the road at -1.5. It’ll be the Luka Doncic takeover.
NBA Pick: Mavericks -1.5 (-110) via BetOnline
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Monday, December 11, 2023 – 08:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center
Defensive Dominance
The Minnesota Timberwolves will take on the New Orleans Pelicans for the third time this season. Minnesota has won the first two meetings, but it hasn’t been easy.
The Timberwolves added a 122-101 victory at home against the Pelicans in early November, but only earned a one-point victory over the Pelicans on November 18. Three weeks later, we’ve got the third showdown between these teams.
The Timberwolves have listed Anthony Edwards as a game-time decision. However, it’s likely he’ll play. The Timberwolves have shot an effective field goal percentage of 55.8%, the 6th best in the league. They’ve also got a free throw rate of 22.5, which is 7th best in the NBA.
With the Pelicans allowing 115.2 points per 100 possessions and an effective field goal percentage of 55%, the Timberwolves have the potential for a big game on offense. After all, they’ve scored at least 121 points in back-to-back games against the Pelicans this season.
Meanwhile, Minnesota has the best defense in the NBA. The Timberwolves have held teams to 106.7 points per 100 possessions, which is literally the best rate in the NBA. They’ve also held teams to a 49.2% effective field goal percentage, and that’s also the best rate on defense in the NBA.
The only thing the Pelicans do consistently on offense is get to the foul line. However, the Timberwolves have held teams to a 17.3 free throw rate.
Minnesota is much more balanced. Take the Timberwolves at +3.5.
NBA Pick: Timberwolves +3.5 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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