NBA Best Bets for December 22: Crown the Pacers in Sacramento
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Rainman M.
- December 22, 2024
Top NBA Pick: Pacers ML (+112) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The sportsbooks have released their betting odds for tonight’s NBA action and two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Rockets vs. Raptors and Pacers vs. Kings. Let’s dive in!
Houston Rockets vs. Toronto Raptors
Sunday, December 22, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena
Toronto’s Poor Defense
It might seem like the Raptors have a good defense if you focus on their last game; most recently, they held the Nets to 101 points, although they still lost by seven.
But the Nets scored so little because they lack the personnel to exploit Toronto’s lack of rim protection. The Nets have the lowest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket, positioning them to rely extensively on making three-pointers.
Toronto ranks 23rd in defensive rating and is easy to exploit by an offense that has the right sort of personnel.
Outlook for Houston’s Offense
The Rockets will flourish on offense tonight because they boast plenty of high-quality rim-attacking personnel.
One key figure is Jalen Green: the fact that he is their shooting guard yet thrives in the space around the basket underscores the importance that Houston places on scoring in this space. This month, he is averaging 20 points per game. His efficiency within five feet of the basket, where he is converting upwards of 70 percent of his field goals on the year, is a major reason for his success.
In addition to Green, wing Amen Thompson and center Alperen Sengun are major weapons inside. Largely thanks to these players, Houston makes the seventh-most field goals per game within five feet of the basket.
Toronto is quite vulnerable in this space, where it ranks tenth-to-last at preventing field goals and where it is primed to struggle all the more with the absence of starting center Jakob Poeltl.
Toronto Can’t Keep Pace
The Raptors are going to need to score a lot of points to cover the spread tonight, but they won’t be able to count on making threes. They are one of the worst shooting teams and, accordingly, are one of the least inclined to attempt threes. It says everything that none of their three highest-volume three-point shooters converts three-point attempts at a rate above 35 percent.
Instead of shooting threes, the Raptors want to score at the basket. They attempt the most field goals within five feet of the basket, although they are one of the least efficient teams in this space.
Houston’s defense ranks third at limiting field goal efficiency in this space partly thanks to the strides made by Sengun at protecting the basket.
The Rockets, also with their stout perimeter defense supported by the likes of characteristically feisty forward Dillon Brooks, will severely limit Toronto’s efficiency on offense.
The Pick
Toronto will struggle once again to reach 100 points. It just doesn’t have the weapons to challenge Houston’s well-rounded and highly successful defense.
Conversely, the Rockets will be immensely comfortable on offense tonight, where they will thrive in their preferred spaces.
They will take advantage of Toronto’s vulnerable rim protection, which is in a uniquely bad spot without its starting center.
NBA Pick: Rockets -7.5 (-115) at BetOnline
Indiana Pacers vs. Sacramento Kings
Sunday, December 22, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET at Golden 1 Center
The Angle
Sacramento is favored tonight because oddsmakers are accounting for the fact that the Kings are playing at home. The odds imply that the Kings derive an advantage from playing at home.
Results show, however, that this implication is erroneous: whereas the Kings have a winning record on the road, they are 6-10 at home.
It’s one thing to have a losing record at home — other teams do this as well — but the fact that Sacramento has a significantly stronger record on the road suggests that it actually suffers a disadvantage at home.
On the other side, Indiana is 3-0 in its last three road games, with its last one being a win over Phoenix. Indiana, playing at Sacramento, has awesome betting value as the underdog.
Andrew Nembhard’s Importance
Andrew Nembhard, who is now healthy and fit, is helping Indiana thrive in road games. On offense, Nembhard complements fellow guard Tyrese Haliburton by hitting big shots and helping to distribute the ball.
It is no coincidence that, with Nembhard playing more minutes, taking more shots, and dishing more assists, Haliburton — as evident in his assist total — and forward Pascal Siakam — as evident in his point total — are becoming regularly more productive than they were before.
These three players are critical contributors to Indiana’s ongoing win streak. On defense, Nembhard makes Indiana massively better, as evident in the double-digit improvement in defensive rating that the Pacers have experienced with him on the court compared to with him off the court.
Because the now-healthy Nembhard is experiencing an uptick in minutes and generally in responsibility, he is helping the Pacers score around 120 points and hold their opponent to around 110 points or fewer.
The Pick
Indiana has great value as the road dog against a team that struggles to win at home. Regardless of where this game takes place, Indiana is underrated by oddsmakers, who don’t appreciate the impact that Nembhard has both on his team’s offense and on Indiana’s defense.
With him, the Pacers are, supported by their most important scorers and distributors and by shot-blocking center Myles Turner, solid on both sides of the court.
NBA Pick: Pacers ML (+112) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
