Top NBA Pick: Mavericks -4 (-112) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The sportsbooks have released the NBA odds for tonight’s basketball action, and two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Pistons vs. Nuggets and Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers.
Detroit Pistons vs. Denver Nuggets
Saturday, December 28, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Ball Arena
Detroit’s Defense
On defense, the Pistons prioritize protecting the paint. They like to position multiple lengthy and effective defenders around the basket. Video footage shows that they not only deter opponents from driving to the basket but go as far as to make drive-and-kick actions difficult for opposing ball-handlers to achieve because they find, when they drive inside, the interior so congested.
Arguably their most important defender is Isaiah Stewart, who excels at limiting opposing field goal percentage. Among other things, he uses timing and anticipation to prevent opponents from scoring around the basket by, for example, disrupting lob attempts.
Thanks to the likes of Stewart, Detroit allows the third-fewest field goal attempts within five feet of the basket. Moreover, the Pistons do the fourth-best job of limiting field goals made in this space.
Why This Matters
The excellence of Detroit’s interior defense matters because Denver depends heavily on scoring inside. Denver attempts the second-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
This is by necessity in that the Nuggets’ offense lack alternatives. By a significant margin, they attempt the fewest three-pointers.
When they struggle to score inside against Detroit’s interior defense, then they will struggle to score at all.
A Key Underrated Aspect of Denver’s Defense
The posted total for this game is as high as it is partly because the Nuggets don’t enjoy a strong reputation on defense. However, Denver’s defense is strong in a key respect that the posted total fails to appreciate.
This respect is ball-screen defense. Denver allows the sixth-fewest PPP (points per possession) and the fourth-lowest overall point total against the pick-and-roll ball-handler play type. Detroit relies heavily on scoring via this play, so it will struggle in this game.
Superficial overall defensive statistics suggest that the total should be high, but when we look at the specific matchup details that will dictate how this game proceeds, then we see that we are justified in expecting a much lower-scoring game.
No Aaron Gordon
The “under” will be helped by the absence of Denver forward Aaron Gordon. Gordon’s right calf strain will keep him from playing tonight.
The Nuggets will miss his scoring — he averages 13.7 points per game — but they won’t miss his ball-screen defense. Denver’s ball-screen defense is as good as it is despite Gordon, who allows a high PPP total against the pick-and-roll ball-handler play type. His backup, Peyton Watson, will provide stronger defense tonight — specifically against Detroit’s ball-screen actions — than Gordon could.
Takeaway
Both defenses will thrive in this matchup. Detroit’s interior defense features Stewart, who will help make Denver’s offense uncomfortable in the space, around the basket, in which it prefers to score.
On offense, the Pistons want to rely on their ball-screen game, but the Nuggets’ ball-screen defense is solid.
NBA Pick: Under 230.5 (-105) at BetOnline
Dallas Mavericks vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Saturday, December 28, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at Moda Center
Series History
Dallas is listed at -4 in this matchup because it is on the road and because it is playing without injured star Luka Doncic.
The Mavericks are a must-play because of their dominance of Portland, which has persisted regardless of location and regardless of Doncic’s availability.
Last year, Dallas beat Portland all four times. The Mavericks won all four times by at least eleven points. This year, the Mavericks won both of their games against Portland. They won both games by at least six points.
No Doncic, No Problem
Last year, the Mavericks played Portland once without Doncic and they won that game 139-103.
Their offense consistently thrives when they play Portland, having scored over 125 points in all six of their games, even when Doncic is unavailable.
Portland’s Defense Is Very Exploitable
On defense, the Trail Blazers are weak in so many areas. Evidently, Dallas understands how to attack those weaknesses. Portland allows a lot of field goals, at a very high percentage, around the basket. It also ranks 23rd at limiting opposing made three-pointers.
Moreover, the Trail Blazers are one of the worst teams at defending ball-screens.
Expect Kyrie Irving, who scored 26 second-half points on Christmas Day after Doncic left the game, to be aggressive for Dallas. Irving is coming off a rare inefficient outing in his last game, and this is an ideal get-right spot for him.
Dallas’ Defense
The Mavericks normally dominate this matchup also on defense. They are playing great on defense already, having limited two of their last four opponents to fewer than 100 points.
On defense, they prioritize protecting the basket. They like to wall-off the paint in order to deter teams from attempting field goals at the rim.
With this focus, they match up excellently against a Portland offense that is allergic to shooting threes. With their lack of shooting talent, the Trail Blazers rank fifth-to-last in three-point percentage. Portland attempts the fourth-most field goals within five feet of the basket, where it will struggle to score tonight.
Takeaway
Dallas dominates this matchup, and tonight we should expect another dominant Dallas win over Portland.
The Mavericks will score a lot of points by maximizing the fruits of their balanced offense, which can be efficient both inside and outside the arc, both through isolation plays and ball-screen actions.
Their defense will stymy a Portland offense that wants to attack the basket for lack of alternatives.
NBA Pick: Mavericks -4 (-112) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
