NBA Best Bets for December 29: Defense Takes Center Stage Today
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Rainman M.
- December 29, 2024
Top NBA Pick: Grizzlies-Thunder Under 230 (-110) at BetOnline
The sportsbooks have released their betting odds for tonight’s NBA action.
Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Grizzlies vs. Thunder and Heat vs. Rockets, so let’s dive in!
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Sunday, December 29, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Paycom Center
Key Trend
Oklahoma City’s defense is the NBA’s best. It ranks number one in defensive rating.
But the Thunder defense has been extra solid lately. The Thunder have held three of their last five opponents to fewer than 100 points.
Both exceptions saw the Thunder rely on their offense and the opponent on their three-point shooting.
But Memphis will struggle from deep because the Thunder excel at limiting made three-pointers and the Thunder won’t be able to rely on their offense against Memphis’ defense.
The Thunder on Offense
Against Memphis’ defense, the Thunder will primarily want to shoot three-pointers. Oklahoma City attempts the ninth-most three-pointers per game. This focus on three-point shooting represents a significant shift for them relative to last year.
Last season, they really liked to attack the paint via isolation actions. They were eliminated from the playoffs because they lacked sufficient alternative means of scoring in response to the determination of their opponents to pack the paint and take away their driving lanes.
Succeeding from deep has become important for them, so they are determined to shoot a lot of threes as a team.
Memphis’ Defense
Given OKC’s offensive focus, we need to know whether Memphis owns a strong perimeter defense. Memphis is the best team at limiting three-point percentage. The Grizzlies’ perimeter defense is led by hg, who recently helped lock down Golden State’s sharpshooting legend Steph Curry.
On December 19, Curry was 0-for-6 from deep and scored all of two points largely because of Wells’ stout defense. Oklahoma City doesn’t have a Curry, and its top three-point shooters are largely either cold or hurt. Jalen Williams, for example, is 3-for-15 from deep in his last three games.
With the likes of Wells, Memphis is well-built to stop stronger three-point shooting groups than OKC’s, which ranks 23rd in three-point percentage.
Oklahoma City’s Rim Protection
Part of what makes the Thunder defense so strong is its ability to protect the paint. By switching on ball screens and by applying aggressive help defense, the Thunder make it hard for opposing ball-handlers to drive and find operating room in the paint.
Memphis’ offense suffers a negative outlook tonight because it depends strongly on scoring at the basket, where the Thunder excel at limiting opposing production. Within five feet of the basket, OKC allows the third-fewest made field goals and the lowest field goal percentage.
In addition to focusing on a team to protect the space inside the arc, the Thunder have strong rim-protecting personnel.
Isaiah Hartenstein is well-known as a solid paint defender. He won’t be tested much tonight because the Grizzlies will miss their top rim-attacking scorer, Ja Morant, who has been ruled out with a shoulder injury.
Takeaway
Neither team poses a significant threat on offense. The Grizzlies primarily want to attack the basket but will struggle to do so especially without Morant and especially against a constantly effective Thunder defense.
OKC mostly wants to shoot threes but will fail to be efficient against Memphis’ perimeter defense.
NBA Pick: Under 230 (-110) at BetOnline
Miami Heat vs. Houston Rockets
Sunday, December 29, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Toyota Center
Miami’s Interior Defense
The Heat excel at protecting the interior because they are exceedingly well-stocked at center.
Bam Adebayo was a Defensive Player of the Year finalist last year. Whereas he, as someone who is also a great perimeter defender, is known for his versatility, his backup Kel’el Ware is more built with his size to be a rim protector.
Opposing ball-handlers are inclined to vacate the paint when they see Ware patrolling the rim. Ware is a seven-footer who likes to operate in drop coverage. His effectivity in drop coverage typifies the strong positioning of Miami’s defenders.
The Heat will employ effective help defense, such as with 3:30 left in the first quarter of their recent game against Orlando when Terry Rozier quickly steps into the paint in order to deter an opponent from driving to the basket.
Overall, Miami allows the seventh-fewest field goals per game within five feet of the basket.
Why This Matters
Miami’s ability to limit scoring at the basket matters because Houston’s offense lacks alternatives. The Rockets, as they did last year, struggle to make three-pointers. They rank second-to-last in three-point percentage.
Instead of shoot threes, they want to attack the basket. The Rockets attempt the fifth-most field goals within five feet of the basket but will fail to be effective in this space against Miami’s interior defense.
Miami’s Offense Will Struggle, Too
On offense, the Heat primarily want to shoot threes. They need to shoot threes well, especially because Jimmy Butler is still unable to play. Butler is a key scorer for Miami who is known for his driving ability. Without him, Miami leans on guys, such as shooting guard Duncan Robinson, who are known for their shooting ability.
But Miami will fail to shoot well against Houston’s defense. The Rockets do the second-best job at limiting opposing made three-pointers.
They rank second at limiting opposing three-point attempts, third at limiting the frequency of opposing wide-open three-point attempts, and eighth at limiting the frequency of opposing open attempts.
These stats indicate that Houston excels at running teams off the three-point line and at contesting their three-point attempts.
Takeaway
Both defenses will make the opposing offense feel immensely uncomfortable.
Miami will struggle to shoot from behind the arc, and Houston will be inefficient inside. Neither team will be able to rely on alternative means of scoring.
NBA Pick: Under 216.5 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
