NBA Best Bets for December 8: The Late Game Will Be Offensive
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Rainman M.
- December 8, 2024
NBA Pick: Trail Blazers vs. Lakers Over 225.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top sportsbooks have released their betting odds for tonight’s NBA action, and two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Nuggets vs. Hawks and Trail Blazers vs. Lakers.
Denver Nuggets vs. Atlanta Hawks
Sunday, December 08, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET at State Farm Arena
Atlanta’s Offense
On offense, the Hawks primarily want to get to the basket. They employ a lot of pick-and-roll actions where the ball-handler hits the roller.
But also, apart from ball-screens, they feature individuals who like to drive inside. De’Andre Hunter, Dyson Daniels, and Bogdan Bogdanovic are all examples of Atlanta wings who amass a large total of drives per game.
Center Clint Capela is an obvious source of field goals at the basket. Video footage amply demonstrates his capacity to operate as a traditional post-up center. He is also a strong source of offensive rebounding.
Overall, the Hawks attempt the fourth-most field goals per game within five feet of the basket.
Denver’s Lack of Rim Protection
A defense will match up well with the Hawks when it is well-constructed to limit scoring at the basket.
Denver is not such a team. The Nuggets allow the eighth-most field goals per game within five feet of the basket. In this same space, they also allow the second-highest field goal percentage.
Nikola Jokic often gets picked on for his poor defense. His deficiencies are easy to see: he is not very athletic, so he isn’t going to jump up high to block shots or to do other things that good athletic defenders do.
Denver did try to address this issue, to amend its lack of rim protection, by acquiring DaRon Holmes. But Holmes tore his Achilles and is out for the year.
The Nuggets, therefore, still lack sufficient rim-protecting personnel, and that is why especially a team like Atlanta can pick apart their defense.
Can Denver Keep Pace?
Superstars have amazing games sometimes where they become literally unstoppable. I dislike the Nuggets because Jokic just had one of those games: Jokic scored 56 points yesterday as he failed to keep his team from suffering an embarrassing loss to heavy underdog Washington.
It is very hard and rare for even the best players to score so many points in consecutive games. But I don’t know where else Denver can look for production on offense.
This is a tough matchup for the Nuggets because they don’t want to shoot threes — they attempt, by a clear margin, the fewest three-pointers per game — but they are also going to struggle to score inside.
Largely thanks to Capela, Atlanta has solid rim protection. The Hawks are one of the best teams both at limiting field goals within five feet of the basket and at limiting field goal efficiency in this space.
Their defense thus matches up well against an offense, like Denver’s, that attempts the second-most field goals per game within five feet of the basket.
The Pick
Atlanta will be comfortable on offense because it will be able to attack the rim at will against a Denver team that lacks rim protection.
The Nuggets also want to attack the basket, but they won’t be able to do so against the likes of Capela.
NBA Pick: Hawks -4 (-112) at BetOnline
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Sunday, December 08, 2024 – 09:30 PM ET at crypto.com Arena
Neither Offense Wants to Shoot Threes
Both offenses are similar in that they are allergic to attempting three-pointers.
One need only look at Portland’s starting shooting guard to see what I mean.
Obviously, one expects a shooting guard to be a good shooter, but Portland’s Shaedon Sharpe is inefficient from deep. Video footage shows that his strength is in attacking the basket.
Sharpe is known as a slasher who can also score via cuts to the hoop. He is quick, and his array of moves at the basket exhibit his ability to finish with explosiveness. With guys like Sharpe who want to attack the basket, Portland ranks 23rd in three-point attempts.
The Lakers do have an efficient three-point shooter at shooting guard, in Dalton Knecht, but he often passes up three-point shooting opportunities — Lakers players have voiced their frustration with Knecht’s shyness.
Overall, Lakers players do not like to shoot. They rank 26th in three-point attempts.
Both Offenses Want to Attack The Rim
All of this is to say that the outcome of tonight’s game will be decided by each defense’s ability to protect the rim.
Portland attempts the most field goals per game within five feet of the basket and Los Angeles attempts the tenth-most.
Both offenses will thrive because they’ll encounter minimal resistance.
The Lakers lack solid rim protection, which is why reports are circulating that they might trade for a rim protector. We need to take advantage of games like this, when they face a team like Portland that primarily wants to attack the basket because they still don’t have the rim protector that they want.
Portland, too, lacks solid rim protection. Portland’s centers make it easy for opposing offenses to draw away from the basket, especially when Portland heaves bricks on offense, which often leads to easy opportunities for opposing offenses.
Overall, the Trail Blazers resemble the Lakers in being one of the worst teams at preventing field goals around the basket.
While the Trail Blazers will sometimes collapse on players driving to the basket, they’ll concede easy three-point opportunities, which guys like Knecht have the ability to take advantage of.
Recent Games
Portland, being an easy team for opposing offenses to find ways to take advantage of, has in its last three games allowed 137 points to Dallas, 127 points to the Clippers, and 141 points to Utah.
The Lakers have allowed 134 points to Miami and 119 points (in four quarters) to Atlanta in its last two games.
Both defenses are showing, especially in their most recent games, just how vulnerable they are.
The Pick
Both offenses will thrive in this game. They want to attack the basket and can do that at will.
Neither team’s defense is offering any reason to doubt that tonight’s game will be super high-scoring.
NBA Pick: Over 225.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
