NBA Best Bets for February 11: When Detroit Wins, It Wins Big
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Rainman M.
- February 11, 2025
Top NBA Pick: Pistons -4.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for tonight’s NBA action.
Two games, in particular, interest me and are worth investing in: Knicks vs. Pacers and Pistons vs. Bulls.
I recommend investing in the Knicks-Pacers “over” and the Pistons for your best bets.
New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers
Tuesday, February 11, 2025 – 07:30 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
New York’s Form on Defense
The “over” justifiably appears like a strong play when you consider how New York’s defense has been playing.
In their last four games, the Knicks allowed 128 points at home to a Lakers offense that ranks one spot above Indiana in offensive rating, 118 points at home to a Houston offense that ranks three spots below the Pacers in offensive rating, 115 points on the road to a Toronto team that ranks 14 spots below Indiana in offensive rating, and 131 points at home to a Boston squad that ranks six spots above Indiana in offensive rating.
From these most recent results, it feels very reasonable to expect Indiana to score around 125 points tonight.
The Pacers’ Matchup Advantage
But the Pacers also have a crucial matchup advantage that New York’s most recent opponents lack.
Specifically, Indiana loves to run ball-screens for its ball-handler.
Point guard Tyrese Haliburton is the biggest beneficiary of these screens. He ably uses them to up his scoring average, as does his backup T.J. McConnell.
Overall, Indiana runs the pick and roll for the ball handler play type with the seventh-highest frequency.
It matches up well against a New York defense that allows the most points per game against this play type.
The Knicks have several schematic issues on defense, one of them being their determination to run drop coverage on ball-screens.
This could work with a great rim protector. But Karl-Anthony Towns is anything but a great rim protector.
Opposing ball-handlers have had an easy time scoring around the basket with him attempting to contest their shots.
Towns in drop coverage, thus, does not deter opposing scorers around the basket. His positioning in drop coverage also makes it easier in general for opposing players to drive inside.
New York Will Score A Lot, Too
While Indiana will exploit New York’s catastrophic ball-screen coverage, the Knicks will keep pace on offense.
Led by the likes of superstar Jalen Brunson, they excel at getting to the basket.
Overall, they attempt the sixth-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
They match up well against an Indiana defense that allows the sixth-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
As his defensive rating suggests, Haliburton is an awful defender. His on-ball defense is non-existent, as he’s easy for ball-handlers to work past and to bully inside.
Haliburton’s poor on-ball defense is typical for Indiana: its rim-protectors have too much work to do because opposing ball-handlers find it too easy to penetrate to the basket.
New York’s rim-attackers, in sum, will have an easy time.
Takeaway
Both teams are going to exceed 120 points in this game. Each team has the weaponry on offense to exploit serious weaknesses in the opposing defense.
NBA Pick: Over 239.5 (-110) at BetOnline
Detroit Pistons vs. Chicago Bulls
Tuesday, February 11, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at United Center
Cade Cunningham and Detroit’s Offense
On offense, the Pistons primarily endeavor to attack the basket. Cade Cunningham is a big part of this endeavor in multiple ways.
One, he can get to the basket by himself or with the help of a screen.
Two, because defenses know how dangerous he is, he draws defenders to him and has excellent vision and passing ability with which he finds teammates around the basket.
Overall, the Pistons attempt the tenth-most field goals within five feet of the basket and run the pick and roll for the ball handler play type with the ninth-highest frequency.
Chicago’s Awful Defense
The Bulls enter tonight’s contest having allowed 127 points at Minnesota and 132 points at home to Golden State in their last two respective games.
This is nothing new: Chicago has had a terrible defense all year. The Bulls rank fourth-to-last in defensive rating.
They match up poorly against Detroit, specifically, because they allow the most field goals within five feet of the basket and concede the seventh-most points against the pick and roll for the ball handler play type.
Among others, their center Nikola Vucevic is known for being a poor rim protector.
Detroit will feast inside, as it primarily wants to do, while facing negligible resistance.
Chicago’s Offense Can’t Keep Pace
Chicago would have matched up decently well against Detroit if it still had its star. But Zach LaVine is now a Sacramento King.
The Bulls miss his three-point shooting prowess.
Without him, they enter tonight’s affair having scored 108 points in Minnesota and 111 points at home to Golden State in their last two respective games.
They’ve scored as many points as they have because Coby White has played out of his mind from behind the arc. But White’s three-point shooting is unsustainable.
Chicago is attempting fewer three-pointers per game now because it lacks reliably solid three-point shooting talent.
But scoring inside will be tough against a Detroit defense that specializes at protecting the rim, allowing the fourth-fewest field goals within five feet of the basket.
Takeaway
Detroit’s firepower will overwhelm Chicago. The Pistons have the inside scoring and ball-screen offense to prolong the misery of Chicago’s defense.
Chicago lacks the firepower on offense to keep pace, especially now that it’s forced to score more inside the arc.
The Bulls miss LaVine, who contributed 25 points to their anomalous three-point shooting barrage in their one win over Detroit this year.
Without that firepower, they will lose to the Pistons, which in recent history means that they will lose by a significant margin.
Each of Detroit’s last six wins have come by eight or more points.
NBA Pick: Pistons -4.5 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
