NBA Best Bets for February 13: Dallas Depends on Its Defense
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Rainman M.
- February 13, 2025
Top NBA Pick: Heat-Mavericks Under 221.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for tonight’s NBA action.
Three games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Kings vs. Pelicans, Warriors vs. Rockets, and Heat vs. Mavericks.
For your best bets, I recommend investing in the Pelicans, Warriors-Rockets “under,” and Heat-Mavericks “under.”
Sacramento Kings vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Thursday, February 13, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center
Tank Logic Is Bad Logic
It is a bad idea to go against a team because you think it’s tanking.
Yes, the Pelicans have lost ten games in a row, but were they tanking when they stayed within a point of Dallas and two points of Boston?
New Orleans’ best games, those close losses to Dallas and Boston, came at home.
The Pelicans are still competitive, especially at home, for the home crowd.
They are in a good spot tonight not simply because they are at home, but also because they will be motivated to avoid the four-game sweep.
New Orleans Can Beat Sacramento
I refuse to believe that Sacramento is good enough to beat New Orleans in all four games.
The Pelicans lost by eight yesterday, but this outcome depended on Sacramento bench player Keon Ellis having a super rare output of seven three-pointers and Pelicans guard CJ McCollum having an off-night.
McCollum scored 14 points last night, but he had accumulated over 30 points in his two other games against the Kings.
New Orleans loves to run pick-and-rolls for its ball-handlers, one of whom is commonly McCollum. Sacramento allows one of the most PPP (points per possession) averages against this play type, so guys like McCollum are well-built to thrive against its defense.
With Ellis falling back down to Earth and McCollum playing like his usual self, then we finally get the Pelicans’ victory over Sacramento that a matchup breakdown should call for.
NBA Pick: Pelicans +7.5 (-105) at BetOnline
Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets
Thursday, February 13, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at Toyota Center
Houston’s Solid Perimeter Defense
Houston is well-stocked with perimeter defenders, foremost being Amen Thompson with his incredible mixture of length, athleticism, and versatility.
He is able to switch onto players of various positions and to lock them down with his skill set as an on-ball defender.
He’s not Houston’s only solid defender, but he’s the biggest reason why the Rockets are the second-best team at limiting opposing three-point makes.
The Rockets, led by Thompson, match up ideally against an offense that relies on three-pointers.
I like their defense tonight because Golden State has just such an offense: the Warriors attempt the third-most threes per game.
Houston Can’t Shoot Threes
On the other side, Houston can’t shoot threes, because it lacks effective shooters. The Rockets rank 28th in three-point percentage.
They are dependent on scoring closest to the basket. They attempt the fifth-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Golden State’s defense is their worst nightmare. The Warriors are dedicated to protecting the basket. Their defense likes to pack the paint, creating congestion inside that makes it hard for opposing players to navigate defenders and score inside.
Golden State allows, by a clear margin, the fewest field goal attempts within five feet of the basket as well as the fewest made field goals in this space.
While Golden State’s offense won’t find comfort from behind the arc, Houston’s won’t be able to score much around the basket.
NBA Pick: Under 217.5 (-110) at BetOnline
Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks
Thursday, February 13, 2025 – 08:30 PM ET at American Airlines Center
Dallas’ Point Total
The over/under for this game is way too high considering Dallas’ offensive potential.
Last night, the Mavericks scored 111 points against Golden State.
While 111 might make tonight’s over/under seem fair at first glance, you have to consider that it took 42 points from Kyrie Irving for Dallas to reach that number.
Irving attempted 25 field goals last night and has to play tonight without rest. One guy can only carry his team so much.
When Irving scored 13 points against Houston, yes, the Mavericks still managed 116 points, but it took 26 points from Anthony Davis.
With Irving coming off last night’s high-volume effort and Davis injured, I see Dallas scoring around 100 points.
Dallas’ Perimeter Defense
But the Mavericks will stay competitive against a Miami team whose offense has, in its last four games, scored 108 points in Philadelphia, 86 points in Brooklyn, 85 points against Boston, and 101 in Oklahoma City.
Miami scored 101 points against the Thunder even though Bam Adebayo had a big night. This year, Adebayo has never, in the second leg of a back-to-back, come close to scoring as many points as he did last night, though, so his outlook is not as positive tonight.
Otherwise, when Tyler Herro doesn’t perform extremely well from deep, as he did against the 76ers, then Miami suffers a shortage of effective scoring options.
No player, including Herro, has a good outlook from deep, though, against a Dallas defense that concentrates on running opposing players off the three-point line.
The Mavericks allow the sixth-fewest three-point attempts as well as the seventh-fewest three-point makes.
With their strong perimeter defense, facing a Miami offense that attempts the ninth-most three-pointers per game, they will keep this game low-scoring.
Neither team will reach 105 points tonight.
NBA Pick: Under 221.5 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
