NBA Best Bet for February 21: It’s the Defense – and the Defence

First of all, full props to Mac McClung. Those were some sweet dunks. But now it’s time to get back to business; the Miami Heat (25-28 SU, 21-31-1 ATS) and Toronto Raptors (17-38 SU, 32-22-1 ATS) resume their 2024-25 regular season this Friday, and while Toronto looks like an easy choice for your NBA picks at the top sportsbooks, we’re recommending the Under here at the home office.

Are the Heat Better Without Jimmy Butler?

Probably not. But as we said in our award-bricking preview from two weeks ago, Andrew Wiggins isn’t chopped liver. And the Heat did indeed wind up with both Kyle Anderson and former Raptors point guard Davion Mitchell as part of the Butler trade.

Sadly for us, Miami lost that game 102-86 to the Brooklyn Nets as 5-point road faves, with none of those three players in uniform. They’re 0-3 SU and 0-2-1 ATS since, albeit with Mitchell the only one to play all three games; we’re assuming all will be available Friday night after sitting idle since February 13.

Which is part of the reason we’re taking the Under this time. In recent years, the NBA betting trends for totals don’t show much of a lean in either direction for a team’s first game back after the All-Star break – but we’re dealing with a Heat squad that looks a lot different without Butler around. They haven’t had enough minutes together to find their offensive footing; the Under is 3-1 for Miami since the trade deadline after starting the year at 22-27.

Is Brandon Ingram Playing?

Not yet. Ingram (ankle) isn’t expected to make his debut for the Raptors (27-27-1 O/U) until sometime in mid-March, although there’s no set timeline as we go to press.

This is another big reason we’re hammering the Under. With veterans Bruce Brown and Kelly Olynyk going to the New Orleans Pelicans in the Ingram deal, Toronto has given those minutes to Jonathan Mogbo and Orlando Robinson, two positive contributors on defense – or “defence,” as they say up North – with limited offensive skills, Robinson in particular.

Having said that, Toronto did just give up a similar player in Mitchell. But at least he’s still part of Friday’s matchup; meanwhile, Jamal Shead is doing Mitchell-like things for the Raptors, which is why they felt comfortable wedging themselves into this Butler deal in the first place.

Is Jakob Poeltl Playing?

That’s the $64 question – or $90.71 Canadian. Poeltl (hip) is listed as day-to-day at Basketball Reference, but according to Aaron Rose at SI, he’s considered questionable for Friday’s contest.

We’re not going to sweat it too much. The Over is 3-2 in the five games Jakob Poeltl has missed thus far, even though he provides something on offense/offence that Mogbo and especially Robinson do not. Sadly, none of Toronto’s big-man minutes will be going to Ulrich Chomche, who’s out for the year with a partially torn MCL. Chomche is about as raw as a prospect gets these days. Where’s Bruno Caboclo when you need him?

The Pick

Whoever plays center/centre for the Raptors this Friday, they’ve got a team of gritty defenders with not a lot of scoring pop, playing against a Miami side that now includes Wiggins, Mitchell and Anderson instead of Butler.

For the sake of completeness, Miami also sent Josh Richardson to the Utah Jazz as part of the Butler trade, although he hasn’t played since November 18. And Toronto got P.J. Tucker from Utah, but he’s not expected to join the Raps. It’s two rebuilding teams trying to figure things out on the fly. Bet accordingly.

NBA Pick: Under 219 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)

Under 219 (-110)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.