NBA Best Bets for February 4: Underdogs Are Barking Tonight
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Rainman M.
- February 4, 2025
Top NBA Pick: Nets +9 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for tonight’s NBA action.
Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Houston vs. Brooklyn and Indiana vs. Portland.
For your best bets, I will recommend investing in the Nets and Trail Blazers.
Houston Rockets vs. Brooklyn Nets
Tuesday, February 04, 2025 – 07:30 PM ET at Barclays Center
Brooklyn’s Growth on Defense
The Nets initiated a major change when back in April they hired Jordi Fernandez to be their head coach.
Now, that was a long time ago. But due to injuries particularly to their centers, the Nets have been slow to see improvements.
These improvements have been evident in Brooklyn’s most recent games. Because oddsmakers are slow to adjust, they are vastly underrating these new Nets.
These new Nets play good defense. Most recently, they held Charlotte to 83 points on its home court and, in their last game, limited Houston to 98 points in Houston.
Ball-Screen Defense
Specifically, Brooklyn’s ball-screen defense has improved.
With the likes of center Nic Claxton, who is now healthy, the Nets’ ball-screen defense tactics are much more aggressive.
Instead of hanging around the basket in order to block shots, Brooklyn’s centers are trapping and blitzing opposing ball-handlers.
Brooklyn’s strengthened ball-screen defense will be relevant and impactful particularly in tonight’s matchup because the Rockets, on offense, depend rather heavily on the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler type.
Interior Defense
Brooklyn’s ball-screen defense forms a seminal component of its interior defense.
The Nets, during this ongoing two-game stretch, are allowing the fifth-lowest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket. It has become difficult to make shots against them in this space.
Anchored by Claxton, Brooklyn’s interior defense has become stout, which is especially useful against a Houston offense that is third-worst at making threes and that, instead of attempting threes, primarily wants to score at the basket.
The Rockets attempt the fifth-most field goals within five feet of the basket and will be punished tonight for their lack of versatility.
Brooklyn’s Different Shot Profile
On offense, the Nets have also changed. They are attempting far fewer three-pointers than they used to.
Previously, they matched up poorly against a Houston defense whose strength was guarding the perimeter.
But now, the Nets primarily want to score inside where the Rockets’ defense is considerably weaker.
The Nets are led inside by effective scorers, such as Claxton, evolving second-year player Jalen Wilson, and Keon Johnson, with Johnson still scoring well and mirroring D’Angelo Russell’s distribution ability even when his shots aren’t falling from behind the arc.
Takeaway
The Nets are primed to extend their two-game winning streak after winning at Charlotte and at Houston by double digits.
Their stronger interior defense and their inside attack position them well against the Rockets.
NBA Pick: Nets +9 (-115) at BetOnline
Indiana Pacers vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Tuesday, February 04, 2025 – 10:00 PM ET at Moda Center
The Spread
I cannot believe that Portland is dogged, at home, by 5.5 points tonight.
The Trail Blazers have improved massively, yet oddsmakers are slow to account for it.
They have won eight of their last nine games and each of their last four ones.
Their victims include Milwaukee. They also beat the Suns twice in a row.
Portland’s Improved Defense
In particular, their defense has become excellent, proving vulnerable only to star scorers like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Giannis, and Devin Booker.
Otherwise, they held Chicago, Orlando, Charlotte, and Orlando a second time to 102 points or fewer. They limited the Heat to 107 in a nine-point win.
The Trail Blazers’ defense has a great outlook against an offense, like Indiana’s, that lacks star scorers.
Its leading scorer, Pascal Siakam, ranks 35th in points per game. He is nowhere near the caliber of stars like Booker, Giannis, or Gilgeous-Alexander.
Portland’s Inside Attack
The Trail Blazers’ offense matches up well against Indiana’s defense given the latter’s poor rim protection.
Portland attempts the third-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Its offense features several players who like to attack inside. Even its shooting guards are stronger inside the arc than behind it.
This group matches up well against an Indiana defense that allows the sixth-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
The Pacers might also miss their starting center, shot-blocking talent Myles Turner, to an injury. His ankle sprain kept him out of Indiana’s last game, a one-point win over the atrocious Utah Jazz.
Takeaway
Portland’s defense will hold a star-less Indiana offense to around 100-105 points.
The Trail Blazers have a strong group of inside scorers that will readily exploit the Pacers’ weakness in the interior. They will have no problem exceeding 110 points.
Oddsmakers continue to be way off with Portland, who has covered the last nine games in a row.
NBA Pick: Trail Blazers +5 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
