NBA Best Bets for February 6: Sacramento Can’t Rely on Its Defense
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Rainman M.
- February 6, 2025
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for tonight’s NBA action.
Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Magic vs. Nuggets and Kings vs. Trail Blazers.
For your best bets, I recommend investing in the Magic-Nuggets “Under” and the Kings-Trail Blazers “Over.” And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for our expert advice on the Magic vs. Nuggets and Pacers vs. Clippers games.
Orlando Magic vs. Denver Nuggets
Thursday, February 06, 2025 – 09: 00 PM ET at Ball Arena
Was Orlando’s Last Game an Anomaly?
In its last game, Orlando scored 130 points. This was absolutely an anomaly. On the season, the Magic rank last with 104.1 points per game.
They scored so many points in that game because they enjoyed a fantastic performance from behind the arc.
Their three-point conversion rate was over 50 percent. They made 16 of their 31 three-point attempts.
Again, this is absolutely anomalous. Their season-long three-point conversion rate is 30.6 percent.
For comparison’s sake, Washington ranks second-to-last with a three-point conversion rate that is 2.8 percent higher than Orlando’s.
Orlando’s Low-Scoring Tendency
An NBA team is not going to continually fail to score 100 points.
Eventually, things will come together and it will produce together a nice offensive output.
That’s what happened for the Magic in their last game.
Now that they’ve just produced that exceptional performance, this is a great spot to expect them to struggle to score again. They will fall back down to Earth and struggle as they normally do.
Before their last game, they had failed to score 100 points in three straight games. They even failed to do so against the lowly Jazz, whose defensive rating is third-worst.
More extensively, they had failed to reach 105 points in eight of their previous ten games before their last game.
Paolo Banchero has ongoing conditioning issues, which he admits to being unable to mend before the All-Star Break, and starting point guard Jalen Suggs is still sidelined.
There just isn’t a lot of scoring talent in Orlando’s roster.
Orlando’s Interior Defense
But the Magic’s defense is still one of the NBA’s best, ranking third in defensive rating.
They are glad to have starting center and key shot-blocker and rim protector Goga Bitadze healthy again.
Led by Bitadze, they allow the seventh-fewest field goals per game within five feet of the basket.
Their stout interior defense positions them positively against a Denver offense that attempts the most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Rematch
When these two teams last played, they combined for 213 points.
Denver scored 113 points but won’t score more tonight with Bitadze healthy again — he didn’t play in that game.
The Magic scored 100 points, which is typical for them. I see this game finishing around 210 points.
NBA Pick: Under 221 (-110) at BetOnline
Sacramento Kings vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Thursday, February 06, 2025 – 10:00 PM ET at Moda Center
Sacramento’s Interior Defense
Before Doug Christie took over Sacramento’s head coaching position, the Kings were uniquely dedicated to packing the paint.
They were allowing the fewest field goal attempts per game within five feet of the basket and were content to allow teams to shoot more three-pointers.
Before Christie, the Kings would have matched up perfectly against Portland’s offense.
But now Christie is their head coach, and they no longer have that dedication to packing the paint.
Portland Offense’s Outlook
As a result of Sacramento’s shift on defense, its defenders are utterly exposed inside.
Teams that don’t rely heavily on threes and that are instead rather inclined to attack the basket and score in the paint regularly thrive against the Kings.
Most recently, Denver, New York, and even normally offensively deficient Orlando scored well over 130 points against the Kings.
Portland attempts the third-most field goals per game within five feet of the basket. It is well-stocked with guys who want to drive inside rather than attempt threes.
The Trail Blazers have been playing well on offense, recently scoring 125 against Milwaukee and 119 against Orlando.
They scored 112 in their last game against an Indiana team whose offense failed to push them.
Shaedon Sharpe, Deni Avdija, Deandre Ayton, and others lead their inside attack.
Sacramento’s Electric Offense Will Push Portland’s
The Kings’ offense now features sharpshooter Zach LaVine.
On January 19, as a Chicago Bull, he dropped 27 points on Portland despite failing to shoot as well as he usually does from behind the arc.
He joins an offense that ranks seventh in offensive rating.
While the Trail Blazers have been winning a lot, they’ve benefited from facing offensively deficient teams like Charlotte and Orlando.
During their ongoing successful run, Portland faced one other team that ranks top-seven in offensive rating.
That team was Oklahoma City, which scored 118 points in a game that wasn’t as competitive as tonight’s game, which is listed at PK, should be.
Sacramento is well-stacked with effective scorers, at the guard, forward, and center positions, who have the ability to inflict Portland’s defense with one of its worst outcomes.
Takeaway
Sacramento’s vulnerable defense will fall prey to Portland’s group of rim-attackers, but the Kings will also score a lot of points against a Trail Blazers defense that has benefitted from many soft challenges.
NBA Pick: Over 229 (-115) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
