NBA Best Bets for April 1: San Antonio Is Under Orlando’s Spell
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Rainman M.
- April 1, 2025
Top NBA Pick: Magic -3.5 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for tonight’s action.
Three games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Raptors vs. Bulls, Warriors vs. Grizzlies, and Magic vs. Spurs.
I recommend investing in the Bulls, Warriors, and Magic for your best bets.
Toronto Raptors vs. Chicago Bulls
Tuesday, April 01, 2025 – 08:00 PM EDT at United Center
Toronto’s Injuries
The odds feel way off for this game given the extent of Toronto’s injuries.
Tonight, the Raptors will miss their starting small forward RJ Barrett, his backup Ochai Agbaji, and starting shooting guard Gradey Dick.
Barrett’s Absence
Barrett’s absence has proven to be significant.
Without him, the Raptors have only been able to beat bottom-feeder teams like Brooklyn without its top scorer and Washington — although, for even those wins, they sometimes depended very much on guys like Dick who are likewise absent tonight.
Barrett’s absence is particularly meaningful because he is Toronto’s leading scorer, and the Raptors already struggle to score in general.
The Raptors are one of the NBA’s least efficient teams behind the arc and depend heavily on scoring at the basket. To score at the basket, they need a guy like Barrett to play.
High-Scoring Chicago
Toronto has struggled to limit the scoring of transition-heavy offenses, with many of its worst defensive performances coming against such offenses.
The Raptors, for example, allowed 155 points to Memphis and 136 points to Atlanta.
When they’ve allowed fewer points, they depended on their opponent having an abysmal performance from behind the arc.
Chicago is one of the better three-point shooting squads and has been playing like one of them in its most recent games, so one can’t expect the Bulls to flop or even to be mediocre from deep.
The Bulls will thrive on offense as a transition-heavy group against a Toronto defense that allows the tenth-most points in transition per game.
Takeaway
Toronto lacks the firepower to keep pace with Chicago.
The Bulls have turned a corner, going 9-4 in their last 13 games.
Most recently, they lost by a point to a Dallas team that was undefeated with Anthony Davis and to the elite Thunder.
They are still competing hard and playing well. This is a good “get right” spot for them tonight against beleaguered Toronto with its outmatched transition defense.
NBA Pick: Bulls -5 (-110) at BetOnline
Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Tuesday, April 01, 2025 – 08:00 PM EDT at FedExForum
Struggling Memphis
The Grizzlies surprised the world by firing their head coach so close to the postseason.
Their players were reportedly also surprised by the decision.
They have yet to regain their composure and to play well.
Without their head coach, they lost by seven at home to the Lakers and by 14 at home to the Celtics.
Memphis’ Perimeter Defense
Tonight’s game will play out more like Memphis’ bigger loss to Boston.
This is because the quality of Memphis’ perimeter defense matters more in this matchup against an offense that, led by sharpshooter Steph Curry, relies very heavily on three-pointers.
The Grizzlies allow the highest frequency of wide-open three-point attempts and rank 26th at limiting three-point attempts.
Largely for these reasons, they rank 24th at limiting three-point makes.
Golden State with its shooting weapons, will enjoy facing a defense that will struggle to contest its three-point attempts and to run its shooters off the three-point line.
Golden State’s Transition Defense
To stop Memphis’ offense, it is crucial to have a good transition defense.
The Grizzlies have struggled in the half-court. They rely heavily on succeeding in transition. No team attempts baskets in transition with greater frequency than they do.
Golden State’s defense has a strong outlook tonight because it boasts an excellent transition defense. The Warriors rank in the 86th percentile in transition defense.
Takeaway
Memphis, a team already struggling to be competitive, will be outmatched on both sides of the ball. Golden State’s three-point-oriented attack will thrive on offense, whereas Memphis’ transition-reliant offense will flounder.
NBA Pick: Warriors -5 (-112) at BetOnline
Orlando Magic vs. San Antonio Spurs
Tuesday, April 01, 2025 – 08:00 PM EDT at Frost Bank Center
Orlando’s Bounce-Back Spot
On offense, the Magic reliably bounce back after laying a clunker.
Most recently, they scored 121 points against Sacramento after they scored 92 points against Dallas.
Before that, they scored 120 points in Washington after scoring less than 110 against Houston.
And before that, they scored 113 points in a blowout win over New Orleans after scoring 84 in Houston.
The list goes on.
They can be counted on to score over 110 points when they fail to do so in their previous game.
San Antonio’s Worsened Defense
On February 8, the Magic scored 112 against a San Antonio defense whose high-level rim protector was healthy and playing.
The Spurs, without him, are much weaker defensively.
During their ongoing four game losing streak, they have allowed over 120 points in every game. Most recently, Golden State scored 148 points against them.
Takeaway
Orlando’s offense doesn’t need to worry about scoring in this matchup, given the spot and given the easy opponent.
It follows that Orlando doesn’t need to worry about winning, because the Magic have one of the highest-ranked defenses. They held the Spurs to 111 points with the Spurs having their top scorer healthy and with the Spurs also overperforming from behind the arc with an anomalous 43-percent conversion rate.
Tonight, 105 points is a reasonable expectation for a Spurs offense that will fail to keep pace with an Orlando offense that will approach 120 points.
I’m seeing a 117-104 win for the Magic.
NBA Pick: Magic -3.5 (-115) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
