NBA Pick: Celtics –11.5 (–110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
They’ve already finished the autopsy for the 2024-25 Phoenix Suns. The body is technically still alive; as we go to press, the Suns (35-41 SU, 29-46-1 ATS) are just one game back of the Sacramento Kings for the last spot in the Western Conference play-in. But this Phoenix team is clearly brain-dead at 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in their last five.
Things have gotten so bad that we’re willing to eat some chalk with Friday’s NBA picks at the top-rated sportsbooks. As expected, the Boston Celtics (56-20 SU, 35-40-1 ATS) have been unprofitable coming off last year’s dominant title run – but they’re peaking in time for the playoffs after going 14-1 SU and 10-5 ATS in the month of March. Let’s see if they’ll carry that momentum forward into Friday night’s matchup as 11.5-point home faves on the opening NBA odds at BetOnline.
Phoenix Suns vs. Boston CelticsÂ
Friday, April 04, 2025 – 07:30 PM EDT at TD GardenÂ
Are the Suns Tanking?
That’s been the debate in Phoenix for a few weeks now. But we appear to have the answer: Kevin Durant (ankle) and Bradley Beal (hamstring) were both kept out of Tuesday’s 133-123 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks (–7 at home). Durant is still listed as out; Beal is considered day-to-day, as is Royce O’Neale (illness).
To be fair, the remaining Suns gave it their best against Milwaukee. But they don’t have much firepower left to support Devin Booker, whose 39 points and 11 assists were all in vain. Having both SF Ryan Dunn (minus-3.1 OBPM at Basketball Reference) and center Nick Richards (minus-1.7 OBPM) in the starting lineup will do that to a team.
Should the Celtics Keep Playing Hard?
They’d better. It’s not quite accurate to say Boston was in disarray earlier this season, but here’s how Jayson Tatum put it after their 110-97 loss to the Toronto Raptors (+14 at home) on January 15:
“We’re going through some s— right now.”
Apparently, they’ve come out the other side. The Celtics are playing with more verve now, partly because they’re healthier – although the following three players are listed as day-to-day for Friday:
- PG Jrue Holiday (shoulder)
- C Kristaps Porzingis (illness)
- C Al Horford (toe)
All three sat out Wednesday’s game against the suddenly surging Miami Heat, who prevailed 124-103 as 10.5-point road dogs. The Celtics are pretty much stuck with the No. 2 seed in the East, five games behind the 61-15 Cleveland Cavaliers and eight ahead of the 48-28 New York Knicks; they might continue to rest players on a rotational basis, but if they’re anywhere near full capacity this Friday, Phoenix could be in for trouble.
That was certainly the case the previous Wednesday when they hosted Boston. Final score: Suns 102, Celtics 132 (BOS –5), with all three of those aforementioned C’s in the starting lineup combining for 62 points. And that was with Tatum getting the day off – plus Durant (30 points) and O’Neale were active for Phoenix.
The Pick
So let’s talk about “morning shootarounds” for a second.
We’ve used this familiar phrase quite liberally in this space, but in this day and age, said warm-up sessions don’t always happen in the morning – or at all. Boston started moving away from morning sessions, especially for home games, sometime in the mid-’10s under head coach Brad Stevens. That continues now that Stevens is the GM and Joe Mazzulla is the coach.
Timing is everything. If you can, wait until you get at least some information on who’s likely to play Friday night for both teams before making your basketball picks. But if the C’s put anything close to a full lineup out there, bet accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.
NBA Pick: Celtics –11.5 (–110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
