NBA Best Bets for April 5: The Clippers Own The Mid-Range
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Rainman M.
- April 5, 2025
Top NBA Pick: Clippers -8.5 (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their odds for today’s NBA action. Four games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Timberwolves vs. 76ers, Grizzlies vs. Pistons, Bucks vs. Heat, and Mavericks vs. Clippers.
I will recommend the following NBA Picks: Timberwolves-Bucks money-line parlay, Pistons, and Clippers.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Detroit Pistons
Saturday, April 05, 2025 – 07:00 PM EDT at Little Caesars Arena
Don’t Overreact to Memphis’ Win
Bettors are believing in the Grizzlies because they just snapped Miami’s impressive winning streak. But we can’t allow one game to distort our sense of Memphis’ team quality. That one game was something that Memphis needed to snap its own losing streak. It was the right sort of game for them because the Heat rely heavily on scoring in the mid-range.
We already saw the Grizzlies beat Miami 125-91 on March 15 and proceed to allow 125 or more points in five of their following nine games. They benefit from matching up well against the Heat and otherwise show that they have a bad defense. Since their head coach was fired, they rank 25th in defensive rating.
Detroit’s Superior Defense
Memphis’ defense will appear inferior tonight because Detroit is not Miami.
Miami, similar to the one other team against which Memphis recently conceded fewer than 120 points, is relatively averse to scoring in transition. But the Pistons rely on scoring in transition more than every team but four.
They match up well against a Memphis defense that allows the third-most points in transition per game. On the other side, the Grizzlies rely the most on scoring in transition and match up poorly against a Detroit defense that allows the sixth-fewest points in transition per game.
Takeaway
It would obviously be nice if Detroit were to have its star point guard Cade Cunningham available. But Detroit even beat the elite Cavaliers by eleven points without him. Dennis Schroder is a well-established veteran replacement.
The Pistons still have the scoring talent and they have the defense to win at home where they make for a great underdog given their matchup edge.
NBA Pick: Pistons ML (+100) at BetOnline
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Saturday, April 05, 2025 – 07:00 PM EDT at Wells Fargo Center
Heavily Favored For Good Reason
I strongly lean toward wagering on the Timberwolves to cover the spread, but, because based on their recent results it feels too risky to ask them to win by more than 15 points, I find it safe to stick them in a money-line parlay.
Philadelphia is coming off a game in which they scored over 110 points and has struggled to find consistent scoring success. The 76ers are especially unreliable against high-ranking defenses because they lack high-caliber scoring talent with Paul George, Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid all hurt.
Even when they perform anomalously well from behind the arc, they struggle to be competitive because Embiid as an elite rim protector is so central to their defense.
They enter tonight’s game having lost each of their last four games by 14 or more points. Since they lost to the Thunder 133-100, they only stayed within ten points of the beleaguered Spurs and the lowly Wizards. On March 4, they lost by 14 at Minnesota even though George was still healthy for them.
Conversely, Minnesota enters tonight’s game on a four-game win streak. The Timberwolves have been, over a longer period of time, solid against teams with injured starting guards, beating Orlando, Detroit and Brooklyn by clear margins.
It takes incredible play-making and strong perimeter defense to beat the Timberwolves, but the 76ers don’t have either. Regarding the latter, their declining defense now ranks 26th at limiting opposing three-point makes, giving them a negative outlook against a Minnesota offense that loves to rely on making three-pointers.
Parlay Leg 1: Timberwolves ML (-1100) at BetOnline
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat
Saturday, April 05, 2025 – 08:00 PM EDT at Kaseya Center
Series History
Milwaukee is 3-0 against Miami this season.
The Bucks won 106-103 in Miami despite not having Giannis Antetokounmpo and despite Miami having star scorer and defender Jimmy Butler. Subsequently, the Bucks beat Miami 125-96.
Most recently, Milwaukee beat the Heat 120-113 despite Tyler Herro scoring 40 points.
Miami’s Point Total
It is clear from seeing these results that Miami’s offense is in great trouble against the Bucks unless its leading scorer Tyler Herro goes crazy. When he scored 40 points, he was making very deep threes and converting contested mid-range pull-up attempts. He was simply having one of those games.
But now he’s had his 40-point game against Milwaukee. There’s no basis for thinking that he’ll go crazy again, especially with AJ Green available for the Bucks. As evident in his defensive rating, Green is a solid defender who can help contain Herro.
Without Herro going crazy, history tells us that Miami will score around 100 points.
Giannis Plus Shooters
Miami lacks the personnel to keep Giannis from being efficient. The Heat already struggle with teams that shoot efficiently from deep, losing all their games not only to Milwaukee but also, for example, only beating the Suns when Kevin Durant wasn’t available to make their offense efficient enough inside the arc and only beating Cleveland the one time where Butler played for them and Herro scored 34 points.
Miami ranks 19th at limiting opposing three-point makes and will again allow Giannis to play well and will concede too many threes to a Milwaukee team that ranks number in three-point percentage. Giannis commands so much attention inside — where he scores a lot anyways — that his surrounding shooters have an easier time behind the arc.
Miami’s difficulty with scoring against Milwaukee makes it too easy for the Bucks to score enough points.
Parlay Leg 2: Bucks ML (-125) at BetOnline
The Parlay
- Timberwolves ML (-1100)
- Bucks ML (-125)
NBA Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (-104) at BetOnline
Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Saturday, April 05, 2025 – 10:30 PM EDT at Intuit Dome
The Clippers Are Thriving
Los Angeles is playing its best basketball at the right time. The Clippers enter tonight’s game having won ten of their last twelve games. They only lost to the elite Thunder and Cavaliers.
All ten of their wins during this span have come by nine or more points.
Matchup Edge
They match up well against Dallas because they can own the mid-range spaces in this game. On offense, they love to score 5-14 feet away from the basket.
Dallas is one of the worst teams at limiting made field goals in this space. The Mavericks, on offense, likewise rely on scoring in this space. They match up poorly against a Clippers defense that ranks sixth both at limiting field goal makes five-nine feet from the basket and at limiting field goal makes 10-14 feet from the basket.
Takeaway
The Clippers are thriving against teams that aren’t absolutely elite. Matchup details indicate that they will be especially comfortable in this game.
NBA Pick: Clippers -8.5 (-105) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
