NBA Best Bets for December 3: The Warriors Are Ready for Battle
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Rainman M.
- December 3, 2024
Top NBA Pick: Warriors +5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for tonight’s games. Two, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Spurs vs. Suns and Warriors vs. Nuggets.
For your best bets, I will recommend investing in the Spurs and Warriors.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Phoenix Suns Odds
Tuesday, December 03, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Footprint Center
Phoenix’s Perimeter Defense
The Suns might seem like an appealing option tonight because they are playing a San Antonio team that loves to shoot threes and they are coming off a win over Golden State, which is another team that wants to attempt a lot of three-pointers.
However, a closer look shows that the Suns were fortunate to beat Golden State. In that game, they allowed 19 wide-open three-point attempts. They were fortunate that Golden State converted less than 30 percent of them. In the Suns’ other recent win, they defeated a Lakers team that is allergic to attempting three-pointers.
Otherwise, the Suns have recently allowed:
- 127 points at home to Brooklyn.
- 138 points at home to New York.
- 109 points at home to an Orlando team missing its best scorer.
- 120 points in Minnesota.
Overall, four of Phoenix’s last six opponents thrived from behind the arc. They decimate Phoenix’s perimeter defense regardless of whether they play home or away.
San Antonio’s Offense
The Spurs are getting free points from oddsmakers because they are playing on the road, even though the Suns’ defense does not become less vulnerable in Phoenix.
On offense, the Spurs rely on shooting threes. They attempt the fifth-most three-pointers per game. Shooting guard Devin Vassell’s health has provided a tremendous boost to this team’s offense. He is converting 44.7 percent of his three-point attempts.
San Antonio’s shooters have it easy because defenses have to worry about the threat that Victor Wembanyama, the team’s leading scorer, poses inside.
Outlook for Phoenix’s Offense
On offense, the Suns, too, love to attempt threes. They attempt the seventh-most threes per game.
Their outlook is negative against a San Antonio team that is well-stocked with stout perimeter defenders, such as Julian Champagnie and Stephon Castle.
Champagnie’s great length at 6-8 helps make him versatile, so that he can guard different positions. Castle’s abilities to guard in iso make him particularly useful against Phoenix’s scorers. Their individual abilities contribute to the fact that the Spurs rank tenth at limiting opposing three-pointers made.
Takeaway
Expect San Antonio to be immensely more comfortable on offense than the Suns.
Phoenix’s defense will not bother the Spurs’ three-point-oriented attack, which will be complemented especially by Wembanyama inside, who won’t have to contend with injured Suns center Jusuf Nurkic. The Suns will want to attempt a lot of threes to keep pace but will be stifled by San Antonio’s collection of stout perimeter defenders.
San Antonio enters this game having won five of their last six, with its victims including the mighty Thunder and Warriors, and remains underrated by oddsmakers.
NBA Pick: Spurs +7 (-110) at BetOnline
Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets Odds
Tuesday, December 03, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at Ball Arena
Denver’s Vulnerable Defense
It is impossible to like Denver at home in this game. It is only being favored so heavily because this game takes place in Denver, even though the Nuggets do not actually demonstrate an advantage from playing at home.
At home, the Nuggets have allowed 120 or more points in each of their last five games. These last five home games include a 145-118 beatdown by the Knicks. Their defense was likewise victimized by Dallas, Miami and Oklahoma City. In their sixth-to-last home game, they conceded 119 points to underdog Toronto.
Among other things, they really miss departed guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who now plays for the defensive-minded Magic. They lack strong rim protectors, so their perimeter defense is more easily overwhelmed.
Outlook for Golden State’s Offense
The Warriors love to shoot threes. They attempt the fourth-most threes, which is smart of them because they feature legendary sharpshooter Steph Curry.
Steph is supported especially by Andrew Wiggins and Buddy Hield, both of whom convert over 40 percent of their three-point attempts while attempting threes at a high volume.
This team’s outlook is solid against Denver’s declined defense, which ranks 21st at limiting opposing three-pointers made. The Nuggets do a particularly poor job of contesting three-point attempts. They allow wide-open ones with the ninth-highest frequency.
Denver’s Offense Will Be Shut Down
In order to keep pace with the Warriors, Denver will need to score a lot of points.
They aren’t going to score by shooting threes. They are the least inclined team to shoot threes — they attempt fewer of them than any other team. But they also won’t score inside. This is primarily where they want to score. They attempt the third-most field goals per game within five feet of the basket.
However, Golden State is dedicated to protecting the basket. The Warriors are glad to concede three-point attempts if it means preventing teams from attempting shots at the basket.
They allow the second-fewest field goals within five feet of the basket where they are supported by the rim protection of guys like Trayce Jackson-Davis, who keep opposing offenses severely inefficient in this space.
Takeaway
Denver’s defense will remain porous and will be taken advantage of by Golden State’s three-point attack. The Nuggets, meanwhile, lack the means to keep pace. Golden State’s defensive focus makes it match up excellently against Denver’s desperate offense.
NBA Pick: Warriors +5 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
