NBA Best Bets for December 6: Under at the Rose Garden
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Jason Lake
- December 6, 2024
Top NBA Pick: Under 226 (–115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The great thing about betting on the NBA is that it gives you a reason to care. Otherwise, chances are you’re not paying much attention to Friday’s game between the Utah Jazz (4-17 SU, 9-12 ATS) and the Portland Trail Blazers (8-14 SU, 12-9-1 ATS). These are two of the smallest regional fanbases in the league, and two of the least supported teams on the public money charts.
You know what that means: betting value. The NBA’s Northwest Division is like a mid-major conference in college football – the Mountain West in this case. Because there’s less interest in these matchups, the betting market is less “mature” and the NBA lines at top-rated sportsbooks are softer. Or so the theory goes.
Basic Betting 101 also says the Under has built-in value for your basketball picks – and just about any sport, really. So let’s dig deep, peel back the layers and see if Friday’s contest actually fits the bill.
If you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for advice on two more matches: Magic vs. 76ers and Lakers vs. Hawks.
Utah Jazz vs. Portland Trail Blazers Odds
Friday, December 06, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at Moda Center
How Bad Are the Utah Jazz?
Very bad. This is intentional; the Jazz are still in their early rebuilding years under CEO Danny Ainge, who put his stamp on this team in 2022 when he traded Rudy Gobert to Minnesota and Donovan Mitchell to Cleveland, receiving a boatload of draft picks in return.
The Jazz also got some decent players out of those deals. At first, it looked like they might be competitive with Lauri Markkanen at the 3-4 and Mike Conley still at point guard, but Ainge eventually took care of that by shipping Conley to Minnesota, and veterans Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt to the L.A. Lakers.
Now that Utah’s been stripped down to mostly Markkanen (plus-1.8 BPM at Basketball Reference) and assorted role players, they’ve got the third-worst record in the league, which means they’re tied for first place in the Cooper Flagg Sweepstakes. And as far as Friday is concerned, Utah ranks No. 25 overall at 106.2 points scored per 100 possessions, while operating at a medium pace of 101.6 possessions per game (No. 13).
How Bad Are the Portland Trail Blazers?
Not as bad as Utah – at least in the short term.
It’s a bit harder to pin down the trajectory of Portland’s rebuild; there was palace intrigue in the front office when GM Neil Olshey lost his job in 2021, and his replacement, Joe Cronin, hasn’t had as much success with his giant pile of draft picks as Ainge.
Maybe he just hasn’t taken that second step yet: trade the veterans.
Sending Damian Lillard to Milwaukee was one thing; this Blazers team still has center Deandre Ayton (minus-1.9 BPM) and PF Jerami Grant (minus-1.0 BPM) in the starting lineup. Rumor has it they already tried to send Grant to the Lakers this offseason; they might try again before the trade deadline, but for now, he’s helping Portland win.
Somewhat. The Blazers as constructed are all about the backcourt, where Anfernee Simons (minus-2.6 BPM) and Shaedon Sharpe (minus-2.6 BPM) lead the regulars in Usage Rate. Scoot Henderson (minus-4.7 BPM) was supposed to be their post-Lillard savior at point guard, but the No. 3 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft just hasn’t worked out – and he’s day-to-day with a quadriceps injury.
The Pick
It doesn’t look like Donovan Clingan (knee, minus-0.3 BPM) will be at center for Portland this Friday, so while that won’t help their No. 28-ranked offense (104.0 points per 100 possessions), it will also make their No. 23-ranked defense (112.5 points allowed/100) even worse.
Size your Under bets accordingly when you hit up the NBA odds board, and may the sphere be with you.
NBA Pick: Under 226 (–115) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
