NBA Best Bets for February 22: Portland Is in Attack Mode
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Rainman M.
- February 22, 2025

Top NBA Pick: Trail Blazers -4.5 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The sportsbooks have released their betting odds for tonight’s NBA action, and three games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Nets vs. 76ers, Lakers vs. Nuggets, and Hornets vs. Trail Blazers.
Let’s take a look!
Brooklyn Nets vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Saturday, February 22, 2025 – 07:30 PM ET at Wells Fargo Center
Brooklyn’s Improved Defense
There are many reasons why I was shocked to see how many points Philadelphia is favored by.
One is the fact that Brooklyn’s defense has become drastically stronger than it was before. In February, the Nets rank number one in defensive rating. They have held five of their last seven opponents to fewer than 100 points. Their victims include a Houston team that ranks 12th in offensive rating. Despite facing the Nets two consecutive times, Houston could not crack 100 against them in a single game.
For comparison’s sake, Philadelphia ranks 22nd in offensive rating. It stands to reason that the Nets will hold the 76ers to under 100, as well.
Given the quality of Brooklyn’s defense, it doesn’t make sense to bet on the 76ers. They might win by two or three points, but they would have to hold the Nets to below 90 points in order to have a chance at covering the spread. That isn’t realistic for any NBA defense, though.
Brooklyn’s offense is bad, but it has scored at least 96 points in ten straight games. 96 points is already a very low point total, and it’s exceedingly reasonable to ask of any NBA team to attain it in a given game.
Brooklyn’s Superior Stretch of Play
The Nets have been playing solid, competitive basketball. They have won six of their last eight games. Beating a 35-21 Houston team twice in a row is particularly impressive. The Nets have a great shot at making the play-in tournament, and they clearly believe that they can do that.
Conversely, the 76ers are plummeting. They have failed to cover their last seven games and have lost their last six straight up. As we see in this game, oddsmakers continue to overrate them to a wild extent.For example, they were 10.5-point favorites against Toronto. The Raptors won by three. During their ongoing 0-7 ATS run, they were favored five times and, as favorites, lost four games straight-up.
Takeaway
The odds are way off. Oddsmakers fail to account for how good Brooklyn has become and for how much Philadelphia is struggling.
NBA Pick: Nets +10 (-110) at BetOnline
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets
Saturday, February 22, 2025 – 08:30 PM ET at Ball Arena
Lakers’ Rim Protection
On defense, the Lakers are dedicated to protecting the basket. In their last game, in fact, they won by eight at Portland, holding a Trail Blazers team that relies heavily on scoring at the basket to 102 points.
Whereas Portland attempts the second-most field goals within five feet of the basket, Denver attempts the most.
The Nuggets are filled with guys who want to attack the basket, positioning them to match up poorly against a Lakers defense that is devoted to limiting field goals around the basket. As a result of this devotion, the Lakers allow the ninth-fewest field goals within five feet of the basket.
Lakers’ Offense
Really, any kind of defensive resistance from its interior defenders will enable Los Angeles to pull off the upset tonight because it has a fantastic offense especially now that superstars LeBron James and Luka Doncic are paired together.
The Nuggets do not have a good defense, especially not lately. They have allowed at least 115 points in three straight games — against Portland twice and against the Hornets once. In those games, guards like Anfernee Simons of Portland and Josh Green and Nick Smith Jr. went off for high-point totals against Denver’s defense.
Superstar Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, who is averaging 19.1 points per game, form a much more dangerous pair that will complement LeBron’s scoring.
Whereas its defense hasn’t allowed 120 points in a game since January 13, 120 is a point total that Los Angeles is primed to reach tonight.
NBA Pick: Lakers +6.5 (-110) at BetOnline
Charlotte Hornets vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Saturday, February 22, 2025 – 10:00 PM ET at Moda Center
Charlotte’s Rim Protection
Folks have an erroneous conception of Charlotte starting center Mark Williams because the Lakers wanted him before he failed his physical. But the data doesn’t lie: there are several indications that point to the assessment that he is an awful defender. Such data includes his defensive rating. Advanced metrics reiterate the very low quality of his rim protection.
Now, he might have actually turned out to be ok on the Lakers. In that team, he’d be surrounded by strong defensive wings. But, on Charlotte, he is surrounded by bad, low-grading defenders.
Data Sample
Charlotte’s most recent games indicate that, given the poorness of its rim protection, teams that focus on offense on scoring at the basket have a particularly solid outlook against them.
The Hornets most recently allowed 129 points to a Denver team that attempts the most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Likewise, they allowed 112 and 117 points, respectively to Detroit and San Antonio teams that, respectively, attempt the eighth- and seventh-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Their worst defensive performances have, by far, come against teams that share Portland’s focus on scoring at the basket. With their collection of rim-attackers, the Trail Blazers attempt the second-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Portland’s Improved Defense
Led by Rising Stars selection Toumani Camara, a lengthy, steal-accumulating pest along the perimeter, Portland’s defense has developed tremendously. The Trail Blazers have still struggled against high-ranking offenses, but Charlotte ranks 27th in offensive rating.
Since Portland’s defensive resurgence, it has locked down bad offenses. Orlando, a bottom-three offensive team like the Hornets, scored 79 and 90 points in two respective games against Portland.
Charlotte scored 97 against the Trail Blazers, converting an abysmal 37.6 percent of its field goals and 29 percent of its three-pointers.
Portland’s defense is built to perform even better against Charlotte’s offense than against Orlando’s. The Trail Blazers concede the sixth-fewest three-pointers per game, giving them a great outlook against a Charlotte offense that attempts the fifth-most threes per game.
Before scoring 115 points in a blowout loss against Denver’s bad defense, the Hornets failed to exceed 102 points in consecutive games against the Pistons, Nets, Magic, and Lakers.
Given the matchup, this trend — of failing to exceed 102 points — must be expected to return tonight.
Takeaway
The Hornets will fail to sniff 95 points in this game, but we’re still in solid shape even if they have great fortune from deep and score 105, because Portland’s rim-attacking offense is in a great spot against Charlotte’s defense.
NBA Pick: Trail Blazers -4.5 (-115) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.