NBA Best Bets for February 23: Here’s Your Top Money-Line Parlay
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Rainman M.
- February 23, 2025
Top sportsbooks have released their betting odds for today’s NBA action.
Four games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Pistons vs. Hawks, Wizards vs. Magic, Grizzlies vs. Cavaliers, and Thunder vs. Timberwolves.
Let’s take a look!
Detroit Pistons vs. Atlanta Hawks
Sunday, February 23, 2025 – 06:00 PM ET at State Farm Arena
Detroit’s Win Streak
The Pistons are playing great basketball now. They enter today on a five-game win streak. All of their wins came by ten or more points, which makes the spread for today’s game feel extremely manageable.
Detroit is scoring a lot of points, having accumulated 125 or more in four of the five games, and is allowing an average of fewer than 110 points per game.
Atlanta’s form — the Hawks enter today’s game on a two-game losing streak — certainly can’t compare.
The Pistons have been struggling primarily only with elite teams, such as Cleveland. 26-30 Atlanta is anything but elite, though.
While the Hawks did win the last meeting between these teams, they happened in that game to have an incredible performance from behind the arc, even though they are one of the least efficient three-point shooting teams on the season. Detroit lost by all of two points despite having a below-average day from deep.
Detroit’s Superior Rim Protection
For the Pistons, center Isaiah Stewart has done one of the best jobs of limiting opposing field goal percentage in front of the rim. Stewart is a physical but also mobile defender who will cling to an opposing ball-handler and do a great job of blocking or at least forcing him to alter his shot at the basket. Largely because of him, Detroit allows the fourth-fewest field goals made within five feet of the basket.
For comparison’s sake, Atlanta allows the third-most field goal makes within this space. The Hawks do not have a guy like Stewart. Hence, they just hosted an Orlando team that regularly does an abysmal job of making threes. But the Magic still scored 114 points because they could rely on their inside scoring ability against the Hawks’ interior defense.
Rim protection matters in this game because Atlanta attempts the third-most field goals within five feet of the basket and the Pistons attempt the eighth-most in this space. Detroit’s clearly superior rim protection gives it a massive edge.
Additional Factors
For its scoring, the Pistons also rely extensively on transition offense and on ball-screens. Their offense has the fifth-highest frequency of transition plays, positioning them positively against an Atlanta defense that allows the eighth-most points in transition per game.
Likewise, the Pistons run the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type with the ninth-highest frequency and, for this reason, match up well against an Atlanta defense that allows the second-most PPP (points per possession) against this play type.
The positive outlook for Detroit’s ball-screen game will benefit, above all, Cade Cunningham, who is the centerpiece of Detroit’s offense and will do the most, as a top-caliber scorer and passer, to drive the Pistons to victory.
Takeaway
The Pistons, unlike the Hawks, are in great form. Detroit overwhelmingly has the matchup advantages to enable it to continue winning by big margins.
NBA Pick: Pistons -3 (-105) at BetOnline
Washington Wizards vs. Orlando Magic
Sunday, February 23, 2025 – 06:00 PM ET at Kia Center
Washington on the Road
The Wizards are 4-21 on the road this year. Three of their road wins came against a team that missed a key player — Anthony Edwards was out for Minnesota; LaMelo Ball was out for Charlotte; Cam Thomas was out for Brooklyn. Those are all crucial scorers who average well over 24 points per game.
Washington did already face Orlando once, on the road, when the latter missed a key scorer.
Despite not having Paolo Banchero, Orlando scored 124 points against the Wizards in a 27-point blowout victory.
Matchup
Orlando’s defense is at its best guarding the perimeter. The Magic are extremely dedicated to running teams off the three-point line, allowing four fewer three-point attempts per game than any other team. They match up well against a Washington offense that primarily wants to shoot the three, attempting the ninth-most three-pointers per game.
The Wizards are impossible to like — especially on the road — when you don’t really like their offense, because their defensive rating is third-worst. They won’t be able to score on the Magic, but they also won’t be able to defend them, either.
Parlay Leg 1: Magic ML (-625) at BetOnline
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Sunday, February 23, 2025 – 07:00 PM ET at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse
Cleveland’s Transition Defense
Cleveland has put a lot of work into its defense, in general, tweaking especially its ball-screen defense and its perimeter defense so that it is more aggressive on defense and is doing a better job of limiting opposing three-point efficiency.
With its increased switching, Cleveland is using its solid rim protectors to help lock down the perimeter, giving the likes of center Jarrett Allen a more versatile role within the defense without giving up anything.
Even with its center more often on the perimeter, Cleveland is still one of the best teams at limiting points around the basket.
One additional area in which Cleveland’s defense is strong is in transition. The Cavaliers allow the eighth-fewest points in transition. Their ability to stop transition scoring is crucial because Memphis relies on scoring in transition more than any other team.
The Grizzlies’ half-court offense is statistically mediocre, so when its transition game loses force then its whole offense crumbles.
Cleveland’s Three-Point Shooting
On offense, the Cavaliers are well-stocked with shooters. Guys like Donovan Mitchell and sizzling De’Andre Hunter are high-volume and highly efficient three-point shooters. They attempt the fourth-most threes and make them at the highest rate.
Their outlook is great against a Memphis defense that does a poor job of running teams off the three-point line, allowing the fifth-most three-point attempts, and concedes wide-open three-point attempts with the highest frequency.
Memphis repeatedly loses due to its perimeter defense, as evident in its 127-113 road loss to Indiana on Thursday. The Grizzlies will lose but only partially for the same reason tonight.
Parlay Leg 2: Cavaliers ML (-210) at BetOnline
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Sunday, February 23, 2025 – 09:30 PM ET at Target Center
Revenge Trend
Oklahoma City is in a great spot tonight because it lost its last game to Minnesota. The Thunder are now out for revenge. The Thunder are 5-1 against teams that they had lost to in their last meeting.
In the one exception, OKC missed both of its key paint protectors, Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren. Their opponent, Dallas, happened to have an exceedingly fortunate three-point conversion rate and used OKC’s thinned interior defense to dominate inside. With all of that, the game was decided by only six points.
Matchup
OKC won’t have to worry about its interior defense tonight with Hartenstein and Holmgren healthy. The Thunder, who use tactics like digging to bother opposing ball-handlers as they approach the painted area, allow the second-fewest made field goals within five feet of the basket.
Their tough interior defense will contain the rim-attacking tendencies of Minnesota’s star guard Anthony Edwards. Edwards and the Timberwolves shoot a lot more threes this year, though. They’ll struggle against OKC’s collection of solid perimeter defenders, which includes multiple players who received All-Defensive Team votes last year.
In addition to Edwards struggling, the Timberwolves will continue to miss their second-leading scorer, Julius Randle, making Naz Reid and Jaden McDaniels their leading scorers after Edwards.
Minnesota will also miss its four-time Defensive Player of the Year selection, center Rudy Gobert. His elite rim protection will be missed. The Thunder will attack the rim with guys like MVP frontrunner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who also excels at getting his teammates involved.
Jalen Williams, who averages 20.4 points per game for the Thunder, likewise has a great outlook with his inside scoring.
OKC has scored over 120 points in eight of its last nine games and is primed to thrive again tonight against a Minnesota defense that, in addition to missing its elite rim protector, is mediocre in transition.
Stymied by OKC’s interior defense and perimeter defenders, Minnesota’s offense won’t keep pace.
Parlay Leg 3: Thunder ML (-365) at BetOnline
The Parlay
- Magic ML (-625)
- Cavaliers ML (-210)
- Thunder ML (-365)
NBA Pick: Three-Legged Parlay (+118) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
