NBA Best Bets for February 7: Miami Minus Butler Equals Money
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Jason Lake
- February 6, 2025
Top NBA Pick: Heat –7 (–110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The annual trade deadline is one of the best times of the year to make NBA picks. That’s because it’s also one of the most volatile, with dozens of players switching uniforms in a matter of hours. You have to keep on your toes, but there’s usually some betting value waiting there for you when the music stops.
Fortunately for us, the Miami Heat did us a solid by making their big trade Wednesday night, instead of right before Thursday’s 3:00 PM ET deadline. Off to the Golden State Warriors goes Jimmy Butler; the Heat get Andrew Wiggins as part of the return package.
Meanwhile, it doesn’t look like the Brooklyn Nets were able to move their few remaining assets by the deadline. You’d think this would be a good spot to pick Brooklyn as 7-point home dogs on the NBA odds board at BetOnline – but no, we’re taking the contrarian side here at the ranch, as we have been known to do occasionally.
Miami Heat vs. Brooklyn Nets
Friday, February 07, 2025 – 07:30 PM ET at Barclays Center
Is Andrew Wiggins Better Than Jimmy Butler?
Heck no. But the gap between the two probably isn’t as big as the betting public thinks it is. We’re counting on casual fans to over-react here, and while they might not be all that keen on the Nets (17-34 SU, 26-24-1 ATS), they’re still less inclined to pick Miami (25-24 SU, 21-28 ATS) just because Butler is gone, no second thought taken.
Wiggins (plus-0.9 BPM) isn’t just some guy, though. He’s having arguably his best offensive year since joining the league in 2014, posting a career-high 116 Offensive Rating and 0.115 Win Shares per 48 minutes at Basketball Reference. Maybe Wiggins didn’t really deserve his lone All-Star nod in 2021-22, but he helped lead that Warriors team to a championship. Miami could use him.
The good news: Wiggins might not be the only one taking his talents to South Beach. This is a four-team deal as it stands at press time; Kyle Anderson also comes over from Golden State, although the original plan was to flip Anderson to the Toronto Raptors. Keep an eye on the newswires for more.
Meanwhile, the Utah Jazz sent P.J. Tucker to Miami as part of this deal, but the Heat did manage to flip Tucker to Toronto (with a second-rounder and some cash) for Davion Mitchell just before Thursday’s deadline. Mitchell is less likely to be available Friday than Wiggins, but he was a sound defensive guard for the Raptors. Miami could use him, too.
What About the Nets?
It appears they’ll have to be content with that December 29 trade that sent Dorian Finney-Smith and Shake Milton to the Los Angeles Lakers for the package that included D’Angelo Russell (plus-4.5 BPM), who’s playing the best basketball of his career now that he’s been handed the keys again.
The Nets are still 5-13 SU and 8-10 ATS since that trade, mind you. This is that long-awaited part of their tanking process where they actually lose; Brooklyn launched this phase on December 16 when they sent Dennis Schroder (now with Detroit via the Butler trade) to Golden State. I’m a bit surprised they didn’t go even further this week.
Never mind, this just in: Brooklyn is working on a buyout agreement with Ben Simmons (minus-1.1 BPM), still a quality defensive player if nothing else – and still underestimated by the larger betting public. What is defense, anyway? The world demands buckets, Mr. Simmons.
The Pick
There are a lot of moving parts to this Butler deal, so as usual, we’re recommending you wait for Friday’s shoot-around before dipping into your bankroll. But for now, we’re willing to put the Heat in our basketball picks at what old-school handicapping logic says is a bargain price.
Bet accordingly.
NBA Pick: Heat –7 (–110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
