NBA Best Bets for February 8: Atlanta Is Under Washington’s Spell

Atlanta Misses Two Key Scorers

For Atlanta, De’Andre Hunter and Jalen Johnson are big losses:

• Hunter was traded to Cleveland for a few minor, backup-caliber players and a bevy of draft picks, indicating that Atlanta made the move to build for the future at the expense of playing well at the present.
• Johnson sustained a season-ending injury on January 23.

The Hawks are thus now down their second- and third-leading scorers.

Trae Young

In order to score enough points to compete in this game, Atlanta is going to need a monster game out of Trae Young.

However, the Hawks tonight are on their second leg of a back-to-back. Young played yesterday and attempted 22 field goals in addition to contributing seven assists. He was busy and active.

While Young has played decently before on second legs of a back-to-back, his one really strong performance came after he didn’t attempt a lot of field goals on the first leg. What is typical is that Young on the second leg at the very least does nothing special.

He has failed to sniff his points-per-game average in six of seven second legs. With the scoring talent left in Atlanta, I foresee the Hawks scoring a combined total of around 108-110 points with Young contributing at most 20 of them.

Washington’s Improved Defense

The Wizards, before losing to stacked Cleveland, had conceded fewer than 115 points in three consecutive games, allowing:

• 103 at Minnesota.
• 114 at Charlotte.
• 102 at Brooklyn.

While those teams missed key scoring talent, the Hawks do as well.

Washington’s interior defense has looked much stronger, positioning it to do well against an Atlanta offense that relies extensively on scoring inside the arc.

Washington’s Improved Offense

As implied by the very high point total for this game, a team that scores 108-110 points tonight is in very bad shape.

The over/under is fair insofar as it reflects Washington’s improvement on offense. In their last three games, the Wizards have scored:

• 124 points at Charlotte.
• 119 points at Brooklyn.
• 124 points against Cleveland.

Their offense relies heavily on setting screens for their ball-handler to operate, which positions them strongly against an Atlanta defense that allows the fifth-most PPP (points per possession) and the fifth-most points overall to the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type.

Takeaway

Washington is a great underdog in this game. The Wizards have been much bigger winners at home than on the road this year, and they have been playing really well most recently.

Atlanta’s offense lacks sufficient and sufficiently fresh or healthy scoring talent to keep pace with a Washington offense that will continue to thrive, particularly by leaning on the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type. With guys like Kyshawn George, Bilal Coulibaly and Carlton Carrington developing, Washington is still able to score enough points even when Jordan Poole doesn’t go off.

This is the second leg of a back-to-back for Poole, and the same trend that applies to Trae Young applies to him, meaning that Poole will suffer a drop in scoring today relative to what he did last night.

I see Washington, therefore, scoring 110-115 points. The over/under is much too high for this game with Atlanta missing sufficient scoring talent, Washington’s defense looking much better, and the star player for both teams set to decline in scoring.

NBA Pick: Wizards +4.5 (-110) at BetOnline

Wizards +4.5 (-110)

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NBA Pick: Hawks/Wizards Under 237 (-110) at BetOnline

Hawks/Wizards Under 237 (-110)

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San Antonio Spurs vs. Orlando Magic

Saturday, February 08, 2025 – 07:00 PM ET at Kia Center