NBA Best Bets for February 9: It’s a “Dog Day Afternoon”
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Rainman M.
- February 9, 2025
Top NBA Pick: Hornets +10 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for today’s action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Hornets vs. Pistons and 76ers vs. Bucks.
For your best bets, I will recommend investing in the Hornets and 76ers.
Charlotte Hornets vs. Detroit Pistons
Sunday, February 09, 2025 – 01:00 PM ET at Little Caesars Arena
Charlotte’s Defensive Improvement
Since January, the Hornets rank ninth in defensive rating. They undertook schematic changes that have fueled their improvement on defense.
One important change involves their approach to ball-screens. They do a lot more switching. Their heavier emphasis on switching is deterring opposing ball-handlers from driving inside and thus reducing the overall number of drives per game that opposing teams accumulate.
Opposing ball-handlers want to use ball-screens in order to create a path for themselves to drive through, but Charlotte’s defense is denying them the driving space that they desire.
Charlotte’s Ball-Screen Defense
The Hornets now have a more effective ball-screen defense, which is important against a Detroit offense that relies heavily on the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type. Detroit runs this play type with the ninth-highest frequency. Charlotte, however, allows a lower PPP (points per possession) average and fewer points per game against this play type than Detroit does
The Hornets run this play type with the highest frequency, so it will be crucial for them that their super crafty former All-Star point guard, LaMelo Ball, who loves scoring off screens, will have an easier time executing it than Detroit.
Moussa Diabate
Charlotte might start Moussa Diabate at center today, and that’s just fine.
As evident in his defensive rating, he is a terrific defender. Diabate has a great, 7’3 wingspan. His speed and awareness of everything transpiring on the court and of where he needs to be are terrific assets. He is versatile and can use his length to switch onto opposing ball-handlers and harass them.
As part of Charlotte’s overall improvement on defense, it has become one of the better teams at limiting field goals within five feet of the basket, which is important because the Pistons rely to a unique extent on scoring in this space.
This reliance will be more pronounced since Malik Beasley is coming off an incredible three-point shooting performance.
Detroit relies heavily on his three-point shooting, but he is very hit-or-miss from game-to-game, so one has to find it likelier that he has one of his lower-quality shooting performances. His three-point conversion rate is already nine percent lower at home than on the road.
Charlotte’s Inside Scoring
The Hornets just upset the Spurs in large part because they were able to torment San Antonio’s slow-looking center. While Detroit has a quicker center in Jalen Duren, what Duren has in speed he lacks in instinct and awareness.
Against the Spurs, Charlotte’s ability to use screens to drive inside fueled its mid-range scoring attack. Duren allows a relatively high point total to the pick-and-roll for the ball handler play type, opening up the possibility for the Hornets to use this play type in ways that they just did in their last game.
Charlotte’s Three-Point Attack
As it did for the winning three against the Spurs, Charlotte will drive and kick it back out to a teammate. The Hornets will find other ways to shoot threes. They attempt the fifth-most per game and have been converting them at a very high rate lately.
Unfortunately for the Pistons in this matchup, they are at their best guarding the basket. They rank 25th at limiting opposing three-point makes, positioning them poorly against a team that relies heavily on threes. Detroit has already allowed each of its last three opponents to convert over 40 percent of their three-point attempts.
Takeaway
Charlotte is the heavy underdog, but its ball-screen defense will crucially be better than Detroit’s, and it will have an easier time in general scoring in the ways that it prefers.
The Hornets’ use of ball-screens, especially exploiting Duren, will fuel their inside penetration and support their already strong three-point-oriented attack. Their stronger defense against ball-screens and in the interior will further help to keep them well within cover range and to pull off the significant upset.
NBA Pick: Hornets +10 (-110) at BetOnline
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Sunday, February 09, 2025 – 02:00 PM ET at Fiserv Forum
The Angle
Milwaukee superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo has been ruled out for this game.
As Philadelphia is well aware, given all the time that its superstar Joel Embiid has spent injured, it is really difficult for a team to adjust to playing without its superstar.
In Milwaukee’s case, they’ll miss Giannis’ inside scoring prowess — he averages 31.8 points per game, which is second-most. They’ll also miss his elite help-side defense, which positions him annually to be a Defensive Player of the Year candidate.
Missing Superstars
The key to the outcome of this game is that Embiid might play, in which case the 76ers would have their superstar whereas Milwaukee won’t. And, if Embiid doesn’t play because of his knee injury, Philadelphia has acclimated to life without Embiid much more effectively than Milwaukee has acclimated to life without Giannis.
It took the 76ers a long time to figure out how to succeed without Embiid, but they won four straight games, nearly upset Denver and came very close to upsetting Boston in six games before they beat Dallas in Embiid’s first game back.
Conversely, the Bucks minus Giannis enter today’s game having lost two out of their last three. Without Giannis, they lost to the Thunder, took advantage of a Charlotte team that was missing its key point guard and lost to the Hawks. They have not had the amount of time that Philly has enjoyed to adjust to life without its superstar.
NBA Pick: 76ers ML (+100) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
