NBA Best Bets for January 10: Thunder Rhymes With Under
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Jason Lake
- January 10, 2025
Top NBA Pick: Under 225 (–110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The last time we served up our hot and fresh NBA picks here at the ranch, we had the Under for that December 27 matchup between the Orlando Magic and New York Knicks. Our pick was more about Orlando, but the Knicks did their part, winning 108-85 (Under 213) on the strength of their defense and rebounding.
How about some more of that? New York (25-13 SU, 19-18-1 ATS, Over 19-18-1) will host the Oklahoma City Thunder (30-6 SU, 24-9-3 ATS, Under 20-15-1) this Friday; it’s the only matchup of the day with any NBA lines at press time, and while we may have grabbed Oklahoma City when they opened at +1, we’re not keen on either side now that the Thunder have already steamed to –3 at some top-rated sportsbooks.
That total, though. I can already tell the Under is the sharp choice, because just as I was writing this, BetOnline dropped their over/under from 225.5 to 225. Better jump on this bandwagon before it fills up.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. New York Knicks
Friday, January 10, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at Madison Square Garden
Why Bet the Under?
The reasons aren’t exactly the same as they were with the Magic. The Thunder aren’t missing their top three players – although they’re still without Chet Holmgren, their No. 3 scorer at 16.4 points per game. While Holmgren is a strong two-way player, his fill-in at center, Isaiah Hartenstein (12.2 points per game), is less productive on offense.
Before the Quant Police comes knocking on my door, yes, I used raw points per game stats for that comparison, since we’re working with the total for Friday’s basketball picks. Here it is again using Box Plus/Minus (as per Basketball Reference):
- Holmgren: plus-2.1 OBPM, plus-3.5 DBPM
- Hartenstein: plus-0.4 OBPM, plus-3.1 DBPM
How important is this difference? Maybe not a lot; the Thunder split the totals at 5-5 in the 10 games Holmgren played before he suffered an iliac wing fracture. However, the former No. 2 overall pick was just starting to put up All-Star numbers in his sophomore campaign alongside new MVP favorite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Holmgren dropped 29 points (8-of-14 from the floor) on the Houston Rockets in his last full game before going on the shelf.
The Thunder may have Alexander and all their other key scorers in place, but there’s one big thing they have in common with Orlando: defense.
Oklahoma City ranks first in the league at 100.7 points allowed per 100 possessions, almost four points fewer than the No. 2 Magic at 104.3. That will help mitigate the quicker pace (100.8 possessions per game, No. 13 overall) that OKC runs compared to Orlando (99.1, No. 27).
Are the Knicks Still Good?
Probably. They broke a three-game losing streak SU and ATS on Wednesday, beating the now-healthy-but-tanking Toronto Raptors 112-98 (Under 232.5). That streak began with a 117-107 loss to the Thunder (Under 225.5) on January 3, this time in Oklahoma City.
Before that, the Knicks rattled off nine straight wins to close out the holidays with the Over at 5-4. Every team has its ebbs and flows, but it bears mentioning that back-up guard Miles McBride (9.8 points per game) has missed the last five games with a bad hammy, and remains listed as day-to-day. The Under is 4-1 for New York during his absence.
The Pick
Super-pest Alex Caruso (minus-2.8 OBPM, plus-4.6 DBPM) has just been ruled out for OKC as we go to press, so that’ll be nine games he’s sat out with that strained left hip. Not ideal, but the Under still went 4-3-1 in those other eight games, including against the Knicks.
Bet accordingly.
NBA Pick: Under 225 (–110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
