NBA Best Bets for January 14: Portland Isn’t Favored Heavily Enough
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Rainman M.
- January 14, 2025
Top NBA Pick: Trail Blazers -6 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for tonight’s action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Suns vs. Hawks and Nets vs. Trail Blazers.
For your best bets, I will recommend investing in the Suns and the Trail Blazers. And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice. For today, our expert covered the Thunder vs. 76ers and Pelicans vs. Bulls games.
Phoenix Suns vs. Atlanta Hawks
Tuesday, January 14, 2025 – 07:30 PM ET at State Farm Arena
Atlanta’s Current Struggle
Atlanta enters tonight’s game having lost four of its last five games. Its one win came, by three points, against the 10-28 Jazz. Conversely, its four losses each came by eight or more points. Three of them came by at least 17 points.
In particular, Atlanta’s defense has been awful. The Hawks have allowed at least 119 points in each of their last five games. They now rank 21st in defensive rating.
The awfulness of their defense places great pressure on their offense to score a lot of points.
The Last Meeting
Atlanta’s last game against Phoenix — on January 9 — might seem to inspire hope for its ability to score enough points to stay competitive in this matchup. The Hawks did score 115 points in that game.
However, in order to do so, they relied on having an unusually great performance from behind the arc. They converted 15 of their 32 three-point attempts. Whereas they made nearly half of their three-point attempts in that one game, their three-point conversion rate on the season is 35.4 percent.
One must expect their three-point conversion rate to return to what has established itself as their norm.
Atlanta Wants to Attack the Basket
The Hawks anyhow prefer to attack the basket. They attempt the third-most field goals within five feet of the basket. Without being able to rely on their three-point attack, they will struggle to reach 100 points against a Phoenix defense that shows strong form.
Phoenix enters tonight’s game on a 3-0 run largely because of their ability to protect the basket. During this three-game win streak, which started by the benching of center Jusuf Nurkic, the Suns are allowing 15.3 field goals per game within five feet of the basket.
This is a very low number — only two other teams in the season allow fewer field goals per game in this space. Phoenix is dedicated to preventing teams from scoring around the basket, and this dedication creates a negative outlook for Atlanta’s offense today.
Takeaway
If you don’t like the Hawks’ offense — and we cannot like it against Phoenix’s rim-protecting defense — then it is impossible to like the Hawks given the way that their defense is playing.
Whereas the Hawks consistently allow around 120 points, the Suns will hold Atlanta to around 100 points.
NBA Pick: Suns -3.5 (-112) at BetOnline
Brooklyn Nets vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Tuesday, January 14, 2025 – 10:00 PM ET at Moda Center
Portland’s Offense
Portland’s offense is filled with weapons who primarily want to attack the basket.
Shooting guard Shaedon Sharpe, for example, is less a three-point shooter than he is a guy who wants to score near the basket — although he has improved greatly from behind the arc. With guys like him, the Trail Blazers attempt the fourth-most field goals around the basket.
Brooklyn’s Lack of Rim Protection
Brooklyn’s defense does an awful job of guarding the basket. It suffers from poor communication and a lack of shot-blocking
Overall, the Nets allow the fifth-most field goals within five feet of the basket. Hence, they recently allowed over 120 points to Philadelphia and Denver offenses that are averse to attempting threes. Their opponents are able to rely on scoring inside.
Brooklyn’s Beleaguered Offense
Currently, the Nets lack healthy weapons with which to keep pace.
When Portland in recent games has allowed high point totals, it has failed to contain opposing guards who can amass three-pointers. But Brooklyn lacks a guard like Miami’s Tyler Herro who can make a lot of threes.
The Nets really miss Cam Thomas, their starting shooting guard, who is sidelined with a hamstring injury. They also miss fellow guard Dennis Schroder, whom they traded to Golden State. Other guards who might play for the Nets tonight, like D’Angelo Russell and Ben Simmons, are poor shooters. Thomas’ backup is likewise inefficient from behind the arc.
Portland’s weakness on defense is containing three-point-shooting guards, but without Thomas and Schroder, Brooklyn lacks the weaponry to take advantage.
Takeaway
I foresee another game — like their last five games — in which the Nets struggle to reach 100 points because they lack shot-makers and therefore cannot take advantage of Portland’s weakness on defense.
However, the Trail Blazers possess plenty of weapons on offense with which to exploit the Brooklyn defense’s weakness, which is protecting the rim.
NBA Pick: Trail Blazers -6 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
