NBA Best Bets for January 16: Indiana Faces a Softer Test Tonight
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Rainman M.
- January 16, 2025
Top NBA Pick: Pacers +3 (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for tonight’s action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Pacers vs. Pistons and Cavaliers vs. Thunder.
For your best bets, I will recommend investing in the Pacers and the Cavaliers-Thunder “over.”
And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice. Today, our expert has advice on the Suns vs. Wizards and Cavaliers vs. Thunder games.
Indiana Pacers vs. Detroit Pistons
Thursday, January 16, 2025 – 06:00 PM ET at Little Caesars Arena
Detroit Is Learning How to Win
The Pistons might seem to be attractive to bettors because of their ongoing tendency to win games.
First of all, this tendency is irrelevant tonight because the Pacers exhibit the same tendency —Indiana is 6-1 in January with its one loss coming to an elite Cleveland team that it had defeated two days prior.
Second of all, Detroit’s strong record in January does not change a key fact about this team: the Pistons, who have improved so much from their 14-68 season last year, are still learning how to win. Specifically, they still don’t know how to be more consistent. They continue to tend to struggle after a big win.
Detroit’s Struggles
During their strong January, for example, they beat a pathetic Portland team by all of three points at home after it defeated a respectable Minnesota squad. It is not a coincidence that their one loss in this month came after the game in which they achieved their highest margin of victory in January.
This tendency extends to the beginning of the season, when they lost to lowly Charlotte after defeating the Lakers and lost by ten at home to Chicago after looking so good in their 20-point win in Washington.
To give another recent example, they lost by 24 at Boston after defeating the Knicks. The Knicks are a solid team, so it’s hard to pull off an upset in New York. I like Indiana tonight because Detroit just did this. The Pistons, in sum, are in a let-down spot tonight after they upset the Knicks in their last game.
Ball-Screen Defense Comparison
Both teams rely heavily on ball-screens for their offensive attack. Indiana and Detroit rank seventh and eighth, respectively, in the frequency with which they run the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type.
The Pacers have a stronger outlook tonight because they allow the seventh-lowest PPP (points per possession) average against this play type, whereas Detroit concedes the ninth-highest one.
Given this disparity in ball-screen defense quality, we should expect Indiana’s offense to do a much better job of executing than Detroit’s.
Takeaway
Indiana will out-score Detroit because it does a much better job of defending ball-screens. Even regardless of matchup considerations, this is the sort of game that the Pistons this year reliably lose. Following a big Pistons win, you have to fade them.
Please note that, as I write this at midnight, the line is moving in Detroit’s favor because Indiana’s starting point guard might miss tonight’s game due to a groin issue. However, Detroit already has a key guard out in Jaden Ivey, so I find it silly to like Detroit for any injury-related reasons.
NBA Pick: Pacers +3 (-105) at BetOnline
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Thursday, January 16, 2025 – 06:30 PM ET at Paycom Center
The Last Meeting
Both of these teams played on January 8 in Cleveland. Oklahoma City won 129-22. This game saw a combined total of 241 points.
A major reason why rematches go “under” after the same two teams played a higher-scoring game in their previous meeting is that three-point shooting will regress to the mean. However, the Thunder and Cavaliers did not shoot all that well from behind the arc.
Both teams were within two percent of their season-long three-point conversion rate. With a view to three-point shooting, then, they did not combine for such a high-scoring total out of mere fortune.
Cleveland Dominated Inside
Rather than go crazy from behind the arc, the Cavaliers dominated inside — this is why they scored so many points. With efficient bigs in Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley and guards like Darius Garland with his great handles, they amassed 60 points in the paint.
They could own the Thunder defense in the paint because the latter still misses injured center Chet Holmgren. And while Isaiah Hartenstein is reputed to be a strong paint defender, he is just one player.
If Holmgren were coming back to play with Hartenstein, then we would have reason to expect the Cavaliers to score fewer points in the paint in this rematch. But, in fact, not only is Holmgren still injured, but Hartenstein is also injured.
Cleveland will face minimal resistance in the paint.
Oklahoma City’s Offense Is Evolving
Oklahoma City is realizing that three-point shooting is not its strength. The Thunder are now attacking more in the paint.
Whereas they rank tenth in the entire season with 49.7 points in the paint per game, they are averaging 54.7 such points in their last three games. To put this latter number in perspective, only two teams this season averaged more than 54.7 points in the paint per game.
Cleveland’s Vulnerable Defense
As evident when they recently lost to Indiana and gave up 126 points to a Toronto team that is allergic to making three-pointers, Cleveland’s paint defense is struggling.
We also saw Cleveland’s struggling paint defense in its worst stretch of play this season, in its consecutive losses against an Atlanta team that relies heavily on scoring at the basket.
Cleveland continues to struggle to protect the paint, which makes it ripe to allow a lot of points to an Oklahoma City team that, led by its elite point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander with his driving and play-making abilities, is focusing more on scoring inside.
Takeaway
Both teams will score at ease because they will be able to live, on offense, in the opposing team’s painted area.
With Hartenstein plus Holmgren sidelined and the Oklahoma City offense’s intelligent shift in focus, we should expect even more points tonight in the rematch than in their last meeting.
NBA Pick: Cavaliers/Thunder Over 232 (-110) BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
