NBA Best Bets for January 17: Should We Trust the Toronto Raptors?
-
Jason Lake
- January 17, 2025
NBA Pick: Raptors +11.5 (–110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
I knew it: The Toronto Raptors are championship contenders when healthy. Just look at what they did Wednesday night to the Boston Celtics, pulling away late to beat the defending champs 110-97 as 14-point home dogs on the NBA odds board. Poetry in motion.
But is it sustainable? It looked like the Raptors (10-31 SU, 23-17-1 ATS) were truly in the tank after the holidays, going 1-7 SU and ATS before deciding that yes, Chris Boucher should get some minutes. As long as Boucher is back in head coach Darko Rajakovic’s good graces, we’re willing to keep Toronto in our NBA picks for Friday’s matchup with the Milwaukee Bucks; a top-rated sportsbook like BetOnline has Milwaukee laying 11.5 points at press time, shortly after opening at –11.
And as always, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for additional NBA picks like Magic vs. Celtics and Raptors vs. Bucks.
Toronto Raptors vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Friday, January 17, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at Fiserv Forum
Why Chris Boucher?
Because he’s been Toronto’s best player this year. That’s according to the Box Plus/Minus stats at Basketball Reference:
- Chris Boucher: plus-2.6 BPM
- Scottie Barnes: plus-2.3
- Jakob Poeltl: plus-0.7
- RJ Barrett: 0.0
That’s it for regular rotation players at or above league average for the Raps. But we have to give these numbers the side eye; as a reserve, Boucher doesn’t face the opposition’s starting five as often as the others on this list. And Barnes is only now rounding into form after multiple injury layoffs.
Be that as it may, Boucher still provides Toronto the same thing just about every year: 16-20 points and 10 rebounds per 36 minutes, with some crazy blocks on 3-point shooters for added value. The Raptors just have to be willing to ride the ups and downs in Boucher’s performance – and also not trade him away by the time you read this.
Sure, But Title Contenders?
As currently constructed, why not? We saw it happen Wednesday: With Immanuel Quickley (minus-2.9 BPM) back on the shelf, you’ve got Barrett as the point guard and Barnes as the point forward, you’ve got Ochai Agbaji (40.3% 3P) and Gradey Dick (35.5% 3P) on the wings, and you’ve got Poeltl tying the whole room together. It works.
And it should keep working now that the Raptors have their full complement of bench players.
Agbaji (minus-1.0 BPM) could plausibly miss Friday’s game after having three stitches put in his hand on Wednesday, but Jonathan Mogbo (minus-1.3 BPM) has already proved capable of handling whatever you throw at him. We’d be even more bullish on Toronto if Mogbo and Jamison Battle (plus-0.1 BPM) got more burn than they do.
What About the Bucks?
They’re kinda mid. Milwaukee (22-17 SU, 17-21-1 ATS) ranks No. 12 in offensive efficiency at 111.3 points per 100 possessions, and No. 10 on defense at 109.1 points allowed. High-mid, perhaps, but mid nonetheless.
Granted, the Bucks did get the cover the last time they met Toronto, beating them 128-104 as 6-point road faves. But that was Quickley’s third game back from the injured list, and as much as the Raptors could use his skills, Quickley just doesn’t seem to be healthy yet. The Raps are 2-0 SU and ATS since he went back into sick bay. They could still make the play-in!
The Pick
To be fair, the Bucks have rarely been at full strength themselves this year, and they should be more or less intact this Friday with Khris Middleton (plus-1.2 BPM) joining Giannis Antetokounmpo (plus-8.3 BPM) and Damian Lillard (plus-3.8 BPM) in their All-Star Big Three.
However, Milwaukee doesn’t have the same depth as the Raptors, and they’re still not better than the sum of their parts with Lillard at 1-spot. Bet accordingly.
NBA Pick: Raptors +11.5 (–110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
