Top NBA Pick: 76ers +10.5 (–105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Some double-digit underdogs are easier to bet than others. Last Friday, we had the Toronto Raptors (+11.5 away) in our NBA picks; they got whipped by the Milwaukee Bucks that day, but the Raptors did upset the Orlando Magic (–1 away) the next game to improve to 24-18-1 ATS on the season.
Compare and contrast to the Philadelphia 76ers (15-27 SU, 14-28 ATS), losers of seven straight SU and ATS as they prepare to host the first-place Cleveland Cavaliers (36-7 SU, 29-14 ATS) this Friday night. This Sixers team is a tire fire in a dumpster – and too good a value to pass up as 10.5-point puppies on the NBA odds board at BetOnline, shortly after opening at +9.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Friday, January 24, 2025 – 07:00 PM ET at Wells Fargo Center
What Happened to the Sixers?
They pulled out from The Process too early. If Philadelphia had stuck with Sam Hinkie’s master plan and seen it through, maybe they’d have built a stronger team on top of Joel Embiid – or found a better cornerstone. Philly’s draft haul since Hinkie’s departure in 2016 includes Tyrese Maxey (2020) and not much else from the current roster.
Embiid (plus-4.1 OBPM, plus-0.2 DBPM at Basketball Reference) has regressed in his age 30 season to mere All-Star level, his quest for a second MVP award hindered by a combination of injuries and load management. You won’t see Embiid on the court this Friday; ESPN’s Shams Charania says he’ll remain out with a swollen left knee, much to the continued chagrin of the organization if rumors are true.
Losing Streak and Injury Woes
Go figure, the last time Embiid played was January 4, two games before this epic losing streak the Sixers are on now. They’ve got other injured players to worry about; as we go to press, the following have just been confirmed unavailable for Friday:
- Kyle Lowry (hip)
- Caleb Martin (groin)
- Andre Drummond (toe)
That’s in addition to Jared McCain, the impressive rookie from Duke who’s out for the year with a torn meniscus. So why put the Sixers in our basketball picks? Because they’re undervalued at +11.5. The projections we’re studying here at the home office suggest something closer to +8.5 as a fair price (no vigorish).
What Happened to the Cavaliers?
Regression to the mean, perhaps.
After sailing along as the best team in the 2024-25 standings, if not one of the very best of all time, the Cavaliers are 4-3 SU and 3-4 ATS in their last seven games, starting with that very close 132-126 win over the Raptors (+13.5 away) on January 9.
Health isn’t exactly on Cleveland’s side either. Each of the following three players is listed as day-to-day after missing Wednesday’s 109-108 loss to the Houston Rockets (+1 at home):
- Evan Mobley (calf)
- Caris LeVert (wrist)
- Isaac Okoro (shoulder)
The Cavs still have Jarrett Allen (plus-3.3 OBPM, plus-1.0 DBPM) down low if Mobley (plus-3.0 OBPM, plus-1.2 DBPM) can’t play Friday, but things get a lot sketchier for Cleveland when they have to lean on Tristan Thompson (minus-4.7 OBPM, 0.0 DBPM) for minutes. Plus, they could be without two of their top perimeter shooters in LeVert (42.0%) and Okoro (39.7%).
The Pick
Because this is the Sixers we’re dealing with, let’s keep rolling with that Warren Buffett analogy and call them the “nasty discarded cigar butts” we’re plucking from Friday’s NBA lines at the top-rated sportsbooks. You don’t want to bet the farm here; respect how volatile a commodity this is by lowering your risk, and may the sphere be with you.
NBA Pick: 76ers +10.5 (–105) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
